I usually don’t like to speculate this far in the future, but I have also been saying that the Warriors are likely three years away from any major success (assuming no major deals are done, and assuming none of the Warriors turn into players far more amazing than I could ever imagine). Since this seems to be a rocky time in Warriors-land morale, I figure I should share why I feel this way, for better or worse. I’m not gonna start blaming people, but rather go only into basketball-related reasons for this.

Reason number one that the Warriors are far away from major success is the salary cap mess we’ve gotten into. Not only is the salary cap expected to shrink, this means that the luxury cap tax is going to shrink – and Cohan has been traditionally averse to paying it. Now, he’s gone right up to it with Mully convincing him in the past – but I don’t know if he’ll continue to do so. Management of the salary cap is the most important thing to sign free agents, meaning I’ll discuss the free agent classes of the next 3 years – of course a lot will change, but as you will see, not very much will change for the Warriors barring trades.

So, starting with 2009 Free Agency. We are right at the cap, around $60 million after signing our first round pick. So, this means we’ve only got our exceptions to go any further. But, there are no good targets for a MLE-type player this year. There are a few marquee names (Marion, Turkoglu, Iverson, Artest, Miller, Bibby, Lee, Kidd, Wallace, and possible other early terminators), but those are clearly out of reach except by sign and trade, and none of the teams with those players have any motivation to do so (unless the Knicks want to package off Lee for Curry). We are unlikely to draw veterans like Jason Kidd who may be willing to play for less, because they want to win with a veteran team close the championship, and many are comfortable in their current situations. The best mid-level type targets are Rodney Carney, Drew Gooden, or Chris Wilcox… serviceable players, but hardly bringing us out of our situation.

Moving on to 2010 Free Agency. The summer of hope for many teams. However, this is not so for us! We’re looking at the same team we have now, plus a draft pick (probably in the lottery). Even outside of the 10 to 12 big free agent names of the 2010 summer, there aren’t even going to be a lot of midlevel names that have high desirability for us. (Travis Outlaw? Thabo Sefolosha? Roger Mason? Well, you get what you pay for, unless you overpay.) The Warriors haven’t given away any future draft picks – although we also have not accumulated any. Accumulating draft picks would have been a way to entice a trade, but at least we haven’t lost anything. So, we draft a player, and the 2010 draft is expected to have a decent number of names, between John Wall who’s expected to go, and the surprisingly large number of athletic big men who might declare early, highlighted by Alrich and Davis. I wouldn’t mind at all being high in the lottery in 2010 and expect a good pick to be available at 6-7.

Anyway, back off the draft and back into the salary cap situation for 2010, assuming we don’t make any major moves this year because none are to be made with the 2009 Free Agent class, we’re looking at $56 million in salary. While Claxton and Law fall off the books, we unfortunately extended Jackson with a raise, and Maggette’s contract and the rookie contract all call for small raises as well. We probably resign Morrow for more than his minimum contract after this, hopefully something reasonable like Azubuike’s contract. But, the story basically does not change, not much chance at improvement through free agency. With a salary cap expected at best, to stay the same, or at worst, shrink 5%, this means we’re again right at the salary cap. Let’s say we splurged in the 2009 Free Agent period, picking up a max MLE, and pony up again in 2010 with another max MLE. While probably an impossible and imprudent scenario scenario that we entice two actually decent players who are worth that much, it’d mean that we would be right against the luxury cap tax and have eaten any possible space in the 2011 cap.

So, 2011 rolls around. The outlook is the same, once again. We don’t have any big expiring contracts (2 years on Jackson, Maggette. 3 years on Biedrins, Monta, Randolph). We might lose Wright and Belinelli at this point, and Azubuike is again a free agent, but those are the only big expected changes. We added Curry, a decent 2010 draft pick, and 1 to 3 average players through free agency. Again we have $56-60 million under the salary cap. Again, the salary cap isn’t going to magically grow, meaning we have no flexibility. Again, we’re probably headed for the lottery.. and unless the 2010 pick turns out to be a superstar (or even if it does), we need at least one more huge piece to make it.

So there you have it, why we are stuck in mud for 3 years (at minimum) unless Riley brings us a miracle trade. 2012 is the year that a sad Warriors fan may once again have a glimmer of optimism (unless we land some huge lottery picks). The Amare trade isn’t the kind of miracle trade I’m referring to, unless you believe in addition by subtraction – the three scenarios with that would be 1. sign-and-trade Amare at the very least to get back a superstar, 2. resign him to a long contract (I hope not, because he’s asking for max-max extend and raise), or 3. let him walk, opening up about $16 million in cap room during the 2010 summer, and still having everyone else but Biedrins to try to build around. (I’d rather give up Monta, and are afraid that the front office overreacted with him due to our failed history with Arenas.)

*Edit: A miracle trade would essentially be Maggette, Jackson + filler for a superstar. Someone get out the good luck charms to hope for this outcome.

This entry was posted on Friday, July 3rd, 2009 at 1:58 pm and is filed under Golden State Warriors. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.