David Lee has agreed to the deal with the Warriors

Re: David Lee for Anthony Randolph/Azu/Radmonovic

Even Tim K does not like the trade:
Trade Randolph for the right to pay David Lee $70M+? That’d be classic Warriors

Posted by Tim Kawakami on July 7th, 2010 at 10:11 pm

–NOTE: Original headline said $90M, but I was using a higher permutation of salaries going to the NYKs than MT-2’s reported Randolph-Azubuike-Turiaf package.

The max Lee could get in that scenario is about $89M and it might be as low as about $71M. If this was an outright Lee signing for $71M, I’d question it. But to trade Randolph to get the right to pay Lee $71M at the lowest? No good.

(The W’s employees can still be mad at me for saying even the LOWEST the W’s might pay Lee is too high. And when have the W’s ever paid a free agent the lowest amount? Over the last 16 years? Do the W’s employees ever point that out? I’m thinking…)

So I knocked the number down to $70M+. I try to be as fair as possible about potential dunderheaded W’s moves and as transparent as possible when the estimation is a bit high and I come to believe the W’s maybe aren’t quite as stupuid as I supposed.

* I’ve got no major issues with LeBron James gobbling up an hour of TV tomorrow night, as long as he has a killer monologue, funny quips with goofy sidekick Jim Gray and performs a clever skit with Steve Carell & Stu Scott.”

If there’s still time to kill, I say he mimicks his buddy Larry King, books William Shatner and Lionel Ritchie as guests, and takes some calls. “Shaker Heights, HELLO

Hey, this has got to be better than every single one of Leno’s prime-time shows, right? Slightly funnier, too. (That’d be the Gray Effect. He’s a hoot! Unintentionally sometimes, but a hoot

Oh well. There’s already massive blowback. LeBron is doing it his way, and that means it’s more important for him to win the Nielsen nightlies than it is to win an NBA title. Certainly has put more thought into the former than the latter, it seems.

—I’m back just in time.

David Lee is perfect. He’s the perfect fit, the perfect “All-Star” to make the Chris Cohan management team swoon and giggle and go for it, just one more damn time.

Lee isn’t a bad player, but he’s just not that great, either. He’s certainly not worth either:

A) The Warriors giving up Anthony Randolph–who will turn 21 next week and is more than 6 years younger than Lee;

B) Or the Warriors handing Lee a six-year, $90M $70M+ contract after giving up Randolph to get him in a proposed sign-and-trade with the Knicks.

And when you combine giving up Randolph–who is more valuable than Lee, right now, forget about when Randolph gets a full couple of seasons in–plus paying Lee crazy money… well, that’s Essential Cohan.

Yep, when you harken back to the all the classic nervous, senseless, superficial acquistions of the Cohan era–Larry Hughes! Danny Forston! Mookie Blaylock! Bobby Sura! Erick Dampier! Corey Maggette!–Lee fits right in.

The soon-to-be-former New York Knick power forward is just the right combination of overblown stats, marketability, and relaxed defensive mentality.

MT-2 is reporting that the Warriors and Knicks have basically agreed to the framework of the Randolph plus salary-filler (think: Ronny Turiaf, Kelenna Azubuike) for Lee deal, pending all sorts of other developments, including that LBJ guy.

As Marcus points out, if LeBron picks the Knicks, the Randolph-Lee angle is dead, because the Knicks would immediately have to renounce Lee to fit LBJ.

Also, the Warriors couldn’t get back involved with Lee because they wouldn’t have room to sign him outright.

So this might not happen. I’d say there’s a strong chance LBJ either signs with the Knicks or Lee signs outright with somebody else–because, as we know, when players have an option, they almost never choose the W’s.

This should be of relief to Warriors fans–at least those W’s fans who DON’T WANT the last act of Cohan’s ownership to lock in projected $15.44M 17.095M, $16.67M 18.46M and $17.9M 19.825M salaries for 2013-’14, 2014-’15 and 2015-’16 when he’ll be in his 30s.

But if W’s management really has tentatively agreed to do this, if the scenario works out… LUNACY.

You don’t give up a talent like Randolph, who has so much room to grow, who the W’s would not trade for a young guy like 21-year old Kevin Love (better than Lee, in my opinion), for David Lee, especially when Lee will cost so much financially.

I know, some will say that Lee’s a flat-out proven great rebounder, which is what the Warriors need, and I’m sure not going to dispute that the W’s are a horrendous rebounding team.

However… on that proven great rebounder issue…

* Did you know that, despite Lee’s very nice 11.7-rebound average last season, the Knicks actually were a better percentage rebounding team when Lee was off the floor than when he was playing?

Yep. The NYKs grabbed 49% of the total rebounds when Lee was out. They grabbed 47.8% when he was in the game.

* If you say that’s just a fluke, well, two years ago, when Lee averaged 11.8 rebounds, the Knicks grabbed 49% of the rebounds when he was out (same % as last year) and 48.7% when he was in the game.

* If you say that this happens when good rebounders play lots of minutes on bad teams, I’ll point out that last year Toronto grabbed a higher-rate of rebounds (49.1%) when CHRIS BOSH was on the floor, than when he was off (48.2%).

And that Detroit grabbed 53.5% of the rebounds when BEN WALLACE was playing last year, as opposed to 50.7% when he was not. That’s a real rebounder, even in his dodderage.

And the Warriors grabbed 46.3% of the rebounds when poor beleaguered ANDRIS BIEDRINS–who didn’t play much, I know–played, as opposed to 45.3% when he didn’t. Go back two years, and the numbers are stronger–48.2% of the rebounds when Biedrins played and 46.1% of the rebounds when he didn’t.

What about ol’ ANTHONY RANDOLPH, you ask? Again, he had short minutes last year, but the Warriors were neutral with him–almost the exact same rebound % when he played vs. when he didn’t.

* The point? Lee is a good rebounder, and hustles to the ball, no doubt, but it’s a fact that the Knicks play a style (like the Warriors) that produces many more missed shots per game than normal.

You get more opportunites to get rebounds… magically, you tend to get more rebounds.

It doesn’t mean you’re a great rebounder–it means you’re gobbling up the extra rebounds that are there because your team shoots a lot and gives up a lot of shots.

And Lee seems to grab a very high percentage of the rebounds his teammates would’ve gotten, anyway.

Hello: inflated numbers.

(Shocking, I know, but the Knicks rebounded better %-wise when much-maligned occasional rebounder Al Harrington was in the game, vs. when he was out.)

-For some reason I looked at the same year’s stats twice. This year’s reb stats were not so accentuated for the Knicks. There were 88.2 combined rebounds in Knicks’ games two years ago last year, which was the second-most in the league, only to the Warriors’ 89.1 combined rebounds.

-Two years ago, there were 88.2 combined rebounds in Knicks’ games, again, second-most in the league only to the W’s, who had 89.1 combined rebounds.

So in the Warriors’ up-and-down system, Lee probably could grab just as many rebounds as he has the last two years in New York. And yes, the W’s could use somebody who does that.

But that wouldn’t mean Lee was dominating the glass and it wouldn’t necessarily cure the W’s rebounding ailment. Somebody has to get those rebounds. It often is Lee.

And with the Knicks, at least, it hasn’t seemed to helped the overall rebounding picture.

In the same Warriors/Knicks fast system, a guy like Dwight Howard probably could grab 18 to 20 a game.

-I could get into Lee’s defensive stats–the Knicks gave up 113.1 points per 100 possessions when he played last year, and only 109.8 points per 100 possessions when he didn’t. That is a bad differential.

-I could get into his shaky plus/minus stats, but most everybody hates those and I’ll just quietly suggest that they… are… not… good. (Oh OK, Lee was -257 last season; the team was only -56 when he was out.)

-I won’t go too far on that stuff. I’ll just say: Lee is a solid player who probably would put up very good numbers for the Warriors… and not make much difference to the actual winning and losing.

That should mean something, but maybe not to Larry Riley & Co., who love that Lee was an All-Star last year… and what does that mean, really?

He plays in New York. He gets large numbers. He’s in the Eastern Conference, where there not a lot of quality big men (at least until they all sign with Miami or Chicago).

It happens.

Does not make Lee a superstar. Does not make him worth paying $16M a year.

Surely does not make him worth giving up Anthony Randolph for the right to pay $90M or more.

MT-2 explains that Riley & Co. believe this deal will pass financial muster, even with the sales process ongoing, because a Lee contract would not put them in the luxury tax now or in a few years.

(I’m sure they’re factoring in not having to deal with a Randolph extension, too.)

But if this team wants to add good players–like, umm, guys who play defense?–somewhere down the road… having those monster Lee salaries probably would not help.

In fact, they’d be Cohan-esque: They’d block future improvement and possibly guarantee a large bit of mediocrity. Or the furious attempt to dump Lee’s contract, starting in about two years.

Ahh... It's not Nelson's fault. It's Riley's. It's not Riley's fault. It's Rowell. It's not Rowell's fault. It's Cohan. It explains this deal.

http://blogs.mercurynews.com/kawakami/

 

Re: David Lee for Anthony Randolph/Azu/Radmonovic

The main similarities between Lee and Murphy is that they are both white and both PFs. It pretty much stops there. Lee is shorter than Murphy but has a longer wingspan (Lee is 6'9" with a 7" wingspan, Murphy is 6'11" with a 6'11" wingspan). Murphy is slow and plodding. Lee is faster and more explosive. Lee was in the dunk contest. Murphy can barely dunk Lee has a motor that doesn't quit. Murphy is kind of a bit oafy out there.

One of the best way to quantify a guy's style of play is to look at offensive rebounds, because those are harder to get, and require more athleticism and determination (whereas defensive rebounds often fall into the hands of the defensive player, especially when your teammates defer to you and let you grab them). This is where Lee and Murphy are different.

David Lee was 4th in the league in rebounding (11.7), and 13th in the league in offensive rebounding (2.8). Murphy was right behind Lee at 7th in the league in rebounding (10.2), but was way down at 50th in offensive rebounding (1.8). Murphy had a few good offensive rebounding years in GS, but the last 6 years have been 1.5, 1.4, 1.4, 2.0, and 1.8. Lee is a career 2.8 OPG. One year he only had 8.9 rebounds per game, and still grabbed 3.0 offensive rebounds per game! He's not Dwight Howard, but he's definitely a relentless, high-energy worker on the glass. Murph not so much.

Lee is also shoots a much higher percentage than Murphy. Lee is a career 56% shooter, Murphy a career 45%. Granted it's because Murphy likes to shoot threes, but frankly I don't care. I don't want my PF/C hanging out on the perimeter.

The difference between Lee and Murphy on the perimeter is that Lee will set a pick for the PG and then roll to the basket for an explosive dunk. Murphy will set a pick for the PG and then will step back to get open for an easy jumper. He doesn't have the explosiveness of Lee.

Which is what I want in a big man. Frankly, I'm a big Randolph hopeful, but I don't want a Point Forward, lol. I want a friggin forward. We already have a PG. I want my big men to be playing in the paint, banging, doing the dirty work. The only thing Lee does not do is block shots. But he does a lot of what I like, much better than Troy Murphy.

 

Re: David Lee for Anthony Randolph/Azu/Radmonovic

BTW that Kawakami article is just inflammatory. The reports are 5 years at $13 mils per year, for $65 total salary. Where is Kawakami getting $90 mils?

If it is Azu/Randolph/Radmonovic, that totals $12,149,520 -- right in line with the $13 mils reported.

If it is Turiaf/Randolph/Radmonovic that totals $12,849,520 -- right in line with the $13 mils reported.

Where is Kawakami getting $16 mils per year for a total of $90 mils, lol? He's just a ranter and raver. Of course, if it were for $16 mils per, then no that sucks. But for $13 mils per year, honestly you won't find much more value in the league at the PF spot, production for dollar.

People are basing their criticisms on the fact that Lee had one breakout year, but if you look at his history, it's been consistent, each year. I mean, c'mon -- even back in 06-07, he only got 29 minutes per game, and still averaged 10.4 RPG, oh and along with that 3.4 offensive rebounds per game. That was his sophomore year, and he still averaged 11th in the league in rebounds per 48 minutes. He was only getting 29 minutes per game, and those 3.4 offensive rebounds per game still ranked 6th best in the entire league!

And every year since, he's been doing the same thing. Just getting better and better. Now he scores 20 PPG as well.

As fr as people saying his scoring is inflated because of NY, I don't agree much. He's not a wing player. The wing players in Nellie's system, for instance, do have inflated numbers. Crawford, Mags, SJax, even Azuibuike and now Reggie Williiams, all have had inflated numbers because they have the ball in their hands and a constant green light.

Do you see Turiaf or Biedrins scoring 20 ppg? No. They don't have the ball in their hands, and Nellie doesn't run plays for them. They do the dirty work.

In NY, yes there were definitely some players with inflated stats. Al Harrington? C'mon! That guy will jack 20 threes in a game and still get the green light. Even Nate Robinson when he was there, he could take any shot he wanted without worry.

But Lee is not that type of player. Yes, his team has more offensive possessions, so consequently he has more opportunities to score, but I really don't think it affects his stats much. He gets his numbers doing the dirty work. He's one of the best offensive rebounders in the league, and he also scores by setting screens and being open under the basket. He does not do it by jacking up 20 shots a night.

Now, inflated system or no, if you can score 20 points a night on garbage, are you telling me that's a fluke? I don't care how he does it, he does it. And he shoots 56% from the field, so it's not volume of shots. Does the fact that they have more offensive possessions affect his stats at all? yes, it probably does a bit. Is it a main factor? Hell no. If there's one thing about David Lee, it's been his consistency, getting better each year, doing the same good things each year, playing 81 games a year, and being a 20/12 guy all without ever needing to have the ball in his hands. That's pretty impressive.

Al Harrington would look like Dan Gadzuric without the green light. Lee will still, and always, look like Lee, IMO.

Also, that video posted above, where he's dunking on everybody from every possible angle, reverse dunking and tip in dunking and dunking some more... that's just Lee all night. Frankly, I think that video's awesome.

 

Re: David Lee for Anthony Randolph/Azu/Radmonovic

Does David Lee have any post game though (back to the basket)?

 

Re: David Lee for Anthony Randolph/Azu/Radmonovic

Good points, I agree with you that he's never going to be a "superstar," and he'll never be a go-to guy. But in my mind, that's okay. He doesn't need to be, it's not his game. He's a rebounding machine who scores 20 a night without needing the ball in his hands. Very few players can do that. Biedrins was very similar in his prime, and even with all the junk he cleaned up, he still only averaged 10 points a game. Lee is doubling that production on the offensive end.

But you're right, he doesn't block shots (which is strange to me because he has long arms and hops). I guess you're either naturally good at blocking or you aren't. Foyle, for instance, was slow, but he was born to block shots. Lee just doesn't do it.

But that doesn't mean he's a horrible defender. He is one of the best defensive rebounders in the game, so what does that say? To me, it means he's finding his man, boxing out, and preventing the opposing team from getting any extra putbacks or easy shots. If you're a dominant defensive rebounder, like Lee is, well then you have be making an impact on the defensive end (although as I try to convince myself of this, I remember Troy Murphy, who actually sacrificed his defense, and his teammates, just so he could go get extra rebounds and pad his stats lol. But I don't think Lee is like that).

No, he's not a shot blocker or a go to guy, but I don't really need that in my big men. Although it would be nice to have a go to guy in the paint, that's true. But we're not going to get the top tier PFs in the league right now. And for the money, we're not going to find anyone more productive than Lee, IMO.

I'm not saying I want to get rid of Randolph. Honestly, either way I'll be fine with the scenario. I love Randolph's upside, and I look forward to seeing him develop. But I also love what Lee does, right now, in the league, and for the price, I think it's fair. Like Mr. J said above, it's fair for both teams. I'll be excited if it happens. But if not, then I'll be excited to see Randolph grow, and possibly become as good, if not better, than Lee.

 

Re: David Lee for Anthony Randolph/Azu/Radmonovic

Kawakami's numbers were off and he admitted it, but you do not have to beat up Tim to make Lee look better. The point was we're giving up AR for the right to overpay David Lee to a big contract. We already know that Azubuike and Turiaf are solid role players who play D. And we're giving up Radman's nice expiring. Lee isn't that bad, but Tim does make you take a better look at where Lee's production is coming from. Lee's +/- numbers may be something to consider. We already had plenty of stat padders on this team who didn't translate to wins and we ended up being disgruntled with their big contracts -- Corey Maggette, Al Harrington and Troy Murphy. If David Lee was such a dub-dub stud, then why are the Knicks willing to deal him for Warriors castoffs?

In this case, you're getting sucked in by Cohan's logic. In the end, the W's will end up in a worse situation than before and the other team, the Knicks in this case, will have gotten the better deal. History has shown this time and time again. It's better to turn this deal down and see what the Knicks come up with. Again, I would do a Monta Ellis and Brandan Wright deal for David Lee and Wilson Chandler.

No, he's a face the basket jump shooter who gets a lot of put backs and dunks. To be fair, Lee has got an offensive arsenal, but on defense he doesn't block out enough nor get his share of defensive rebounds. AR could develop into an offensive player like Lee and with the proper coaching he could become more of a monster defensive, shot blocking force. Not only that, AR is a lot taller, longer and cheaper. For nice back to the basket play, watch Brandan Wright (but he doesn't play much in Nelson's system). If we had Avery Johnson as coach, who likes that type of play, then Brandan Wright would be a keeper barring he stays healthy and can withstand the pounding he'll get during the season.

 

We've already got a thread on this topic. Marcus Thompson is basically saying the same thing he's already been saying (and ESPn and everyone else): it's very likely it could happen.

Can you just merge this with the other thread?

 

Re: David Lee for Anthony Randolph/Azu/Radmonovic

No need to beat up Tim to make Lee look better. Just beat up Tim because he deserves beating up. The guy proves himself to be a hack over and over again. He's just regurgitating hoopshype.

Lee at 13 Mills is too much. But not ridiculously overpaid. If the Dubs go get a star player in place of Monta, then the team may have some serious balance. Without a real pick/roll pick/pop coach, I don't see why the move is made tough. Hopefully Ellison comes in and finds that coach.

 

Re: David Lee for Anthony Randolph/Azu/Radmonovic

How is that beating up Tim to make Lee look better? Sorry that it was you who posted the Kawakami article, but frankly that article was BS. All I did was point out that the contract is much more reasonable than Kawakami is suggesting. Do the better $$ numbers make a Lee deal look better? Well of course they do.

Which I disagree with. It's not overpaying. It's a bargain at $13 million a year, IMO.

So which is it... are the Warriors' players "solid role players" and a nice expiring contract to go with Randolph, or are they "castoffs?"

To answer your question, they're not "dealing him," they're doing a sign-n-trade because they may end up not being able to re-sign him themselves. They'd rather get a young, promising prospect in Randolph, plus a few "solid role players who play D" and a nice expiring contract, as you say, then just letting him go for nothing.

WTF does that even mean, lol? I don't know Cohan, I don't read what he says (does he ever say anything?), I have no clue what his "logic" is, and frankly there's little way you could either. How do you know what's going on in Cohan's mind, and where do you get off telling other people that they're getting "sucked into his logic," whatever that is? Maybe you're getting "sucked" into Kawakami's logic, eh?


Look at my sig. Yes I'm a big Randolph fan. But, I'm also a big Lee fan. All I've done above is to try to show the positives of the Lee trade. If it happens, it will be exciting for the Warriors. If it doesn't happen, it will be fine too, and we'll still have Randolph to watch grow, and there will be other deals out there.

But the bottom line, is that for $13 mils, David Lee is a bargain. Yes we're giving up Randolph, which sucks, but the other guys aren't difference makers, and Lee will be a difference maker, IMO. I'm fine with however it pans out. Unless we sign him for something like $16 mils. Then I would be disappointed.

 

Re: David Lee for Anthony Randolph/Azu/Radmonovic

No need to beat up Tim to make Lee look better. Just beat up Tim because he deserves beating up. The guy proves himself to be a hack over and over again. He's just regurgitating hoopshype.

Lee at 13 Mills is too much. But not ridiculously overpaid. If the Dubs go get a star player in place of Monta, then the team may have some serious balance. Without a real pick/roll pick/pop coach, I don't see why the move is made tough. Hopefully Ellison comes in and finds that coach.

 

Go W's! Giving up possibly the better player and electing to pay the lesser guy more money! W00T!

 

Capologists...Would there be enough money over the cap to go after Childress if this move is made?

 

Re: David Lee for Anthony Randolph/Azu/Radmonovic

I did not mean that Murphy and Lee had the same game, just that they may put up decent numbers but not bring about success for the team, especially as a main player with such a large contract. They may be more like good role players.

However maybe Udoh makes Randolph expendable. The shot blocking that we lose from Randolph may be regained through Udoh.

 

Re: David Lee for Anthony Randolph/Azu/Radmonovic

So if that trade happens, we're looking at a core of Curry, Ellis, Wright, Lee, Beidrins??? That's a 25 win team...a boring 25 win team

 

I'm pretty sure no. Warriors can only afford MLE.