Trade Monta Ellis

Interesting point, but he did it in Sac as well from 06-08, so it really has not much to do with the team or players around him.

 

When he was in Sac, he was pretty much in the same system he was in now. Also, the argument that he doesn't play as many minutes isn't a fair argument, IMO. Those last few minutes require you to be in incredible shape to be productive. And if you want to dig up history, Monta was hands down the more efficient player, and that was before he developed a true outside shot. Throw away his season and a half recovering from "the moped" and look at what he's doing now. His increased minutes are because there's no bench, and Curry's been out. He has carried the load and done a pretty damn good job doing so. Also, check out his last handfull of games.

I was one of the first to rip Monta, but even though he's not the sharpest tool in the shed, he lacks focus on Defense, and routinely has made mistakes closing quarters and games...he's really learned to play the game on the offensive side of the court. I can't see Kevin Martin Creating for others the way Monta has lately. Honestly, I see Monta as being in the 2nd tier of Offensive players in the league. He's right behind Durant, LeBron, Wade, and Melo...and in some ways he does things on the offensive side of the court that many of those can't do. I wouldn't even put Martin in the same conversation as those. I think it'd be scary if the Dubs had a guy like Battier and a center that could finish like Marc Gasol. Monta's efficiency would shoot through the roof, and so would those around him. IMO, Martin is playing at his ceiling, and so are those around him.

 

Your statements about Monta are ridiculous. No way is Monta an "inferior" scorer. That's his strength and Monta's scored more points and averages more than Kevin. So using your own stats, you are wrong. And your "efficiency" looks to be based on Hollinger's PER stats. Those are skewed towards offense and ignore defense except blocks and steals. A better stat is the EFF or efficiency stats provided by nba.com. These are used by NBA coaches based on:
How do many NBA coaches quickly evaluate a player's game performance? They check his efficiency.

NBA.com evaluates all players based on the efficiency formula: ((Points + Rebounds + Assists + Steals + Blocks) - ((Field Goals Att. - Field Goals Made) + (Free Throws Att. - Free Throws Made) + Turnovers)).

For example, compare the following stat lines:

MIN FGM-A FTM-A REB AST STL BS TO PTS
Player A 43 5-22 7-9 8 6 3 0 4 17
Player B 29 5-8 3-4 4 7 0 0 2 15

Player A had a better game, right? Not exactly. Player B, who shot 5-8 from the field and committed two turnovers, registered a +20 efficiency total while Player A, who shot 5-22 from the field and committed four turnovers, posted a +11.

Monta is clearly the more efficient player.
http://www.nba.com/statistics/player/Efficiency.jsp

Now, what's more difficult is to see who is more "effective" for their team. I'd say KevMart is better in that department (since Houston has the better record), but I think Ellis is the better one-on-one player, would do better with a run and gun offense and is the better "clutch" player. However, give the Warriors more time and they could boost Monta's effectiveness if they start winning. Now that Udoh and Amundson are back, we'll have to see how much better they are as a team.

 

Kevin Martin has a career TS% and eFG% better than Monta's. He's more efficient. His efficiency is so high because he gets to the line A LOT. If Monta can learn to do that, his efficiency will go up and probably surpass Kevin Martin. That's my .02 on efficiency.

Now as far having an "intangible" impact on one's team, I would give the nod to Monta. He draws a lot of attention from the defense (when he has the ball in his hands). That opens up a lot of things for the team. I don't think Kevin Martin has that affect.

Monta is certainly a more dynamic player than Kevin Martin, but the numbers don't lie, Kevin Martin is a more efficient scorer.

There's obviously more to it than scoring, but when that's your main attribute, you'd want to consider being efficient at it (using less possessions to get your points). Kevin Martin is a lot like Corey Maggette. Nothing pretty but he gets the job done. Getting the job done for those type of players usually takes the rhythm out of the game unless that player is in a limited role. That's why Nellie wanted so badly to use Maggette as a 6th man. He started and played a lot because of all the injuries.

Monta is a lot like Carmelo Anthony. Pretty average efficiency, but dynamic and explosive scorer that puts a lot of pressure on the defense. I'm not saying Monta is as good as Melo, but I would venture to say that Melo isn't as good as most people think. However, I'd take him in a heartbeat if he wanted to be in Golden State.

 

Monta for Gerald Wallace makes a lot of sense. By now, Monta is who he is going to be, a dynamic scorer, a one man fast break, one of the best finishers and mid-range shooters in the league; but he's not going to make those around him any better and not going to drive your team to many victories. Oh yeah, as I've said many times, an absolutely horrible one on one defender who fails to show even the most basic desire to defend. Oh he'll "man up" but only when its a marquee matchup when he thinks everyone is watching.

Gerald Wallace will provide tough defense, good rebounding and is on a contract that is two years shorter. Wallace will make Steph and Lee better than Monta will.

Sorry Monta but you need to go.

 

NBA's EFF is basically as "useless" as PER. It still doesn't value shooting efficiency.

http://www.wagesofwins.com/WOWCh7.htm

 

I agree with you. But just to play devil's advocate and emotions aside (from losing), we need to see how this team, healthy, can gel and put some wins together. The last game looked like the team chemistry on the floor was pretty good. That should translate to better defense. Introducing a new player (Wallace) and taking away a player (Monta) that you rely on for heavy scoring will change the team's approach and that transition may lead to losses that will handicap the remainder of the season. The Warriors are not even on the cusp of being the 8th seed. Of course, no risk, no reward. Trading Monta, although most of us can agree that it's inevitable and needed for this team to get better, would be quite the PR challenge for Joe Lacob. Monta is by far the most beloved player on the team due to all the things that have transpired over the years (from Moped-gate to being a family man and vocal leader of the team). The "intangibles" are creating a false sense of value for the fans.

 

Way too premature to be saying Udoh would be a better fit than Biedrins. Everyone is forgetting how valuable Biedrins is and THAT is a shame.

"It's just a matter of rebounding."

You're making it sound like rebounding is an easy thing to come by. Have you noticed how much the Warriors have suffered, including this year, in the rebounding department? Yes, defense is two fold (well more, but for this argument it's two): making the other team miss and getting the defensive rebound = possession. Biedrins, while he has his flaws on defense (but I still think he's a formidable defensive post player), is an elite rebounder, especially for an undersized center.

The Warriors are DEAD LAST in defensive rebounding rate. Granted, a lot has to do with injuries to Beans and Lee, but we're dead last. The last few games, despite winning, have indicated that getting the boards is a major problem still. We shouldn't be talking about letting our best rebounder go just for the sake of it.

Come on guys!

 

I didn't mean to trivialize rebounding...that's not my feelings at all. I would rather our strong points be defense and rebounding than anything. All I'm saying is that I would rather trade Biedrins than Monta. I would rather have:

curry/ellis/wallace/lee/udoh

than

curry/williams/wallace/lee/biedrins

Or in the case of the aforementioned AB for AB scenario...I'd definitely take Bogut. Pretty beastly on the glass, and a great shot blocker...but I don't think you were disagreeing with that.

I really felt like Biedrins was our team MVP back in the Baron days, strictly because of his rebounding. When we had Baron and Jackson chucking up threes, he shagged rebounds with no complaint. He did all the dirty work for the team, with none of the glory. I really respected that.

He's good for 10 rebounds a game in 27 minutes a game...I don't take that for granted. At the beginning of the season when we had Lee and Biedrins healthy, and we were actually outrebounding opponents consistently, it was a luxury I had never experienced. It was awesome. But I think that if we could get a difference maker at another position, and we had to toss Udoh into the deep end, he could at least get us 6 or 7 boards where Biedrins got us 10...and he's a better scorer, and seems to be better at changing shots on D at this point in time.

I never said Udoh's a better fit than Biedrins, I don't feel that way. I wouldn't consider getting rid of Biedrins for anything less than a proven starting SF or C. Honestly, I can't think of many realistic trades where I'd be happy moving Biedrins or Ellis.

 

I would trade Ellis for Battier straight up right now, any day, any time.

Battier is my favorite player in the NBA right now.

 

Heh. Care to explain why EFF is basically as "useless" as PER when comparing players when you just use TS% and eFG% without getting too nerdy? Moreover your Win Score link is based on the NBA EFF model. How does that make EFF "useless" when it is used in Win Score and where is the Win Score between Ellis and Martin?

So Martin shoots and makes more 3s, gets to the FT line more and has a better FT%age, that doesn't make him a more efficient player. Monta has the better FG%. So there.

Overall, doing this exercise was an eye opener. One can say Martin is the more efficient scorer, but Ellis is the better and more efficient player. That doesn't even take into consideration durability. Ellis is 25, so he has room for growth and improvement. Martin is 27 and is at his peak years. I would give Monta more of a chance than just say "Trade Monta Ellis!" now when he has those horrible mental lapses or blows the chance for the Warriors to win the game. He doesn't have the high b-ball IQ, but he's made up for it with his physical play. Monta is a frustrating player, but Ellis has improved his 3-pt shot, FG%age and overall game. He has lapsed on FTs, so he still needs coaching to help forge his game into a complete one. I'd give him another twenty games and then revisit how he's doing. He's upped his game to break into the all-star ranks since about two all-star games ago.

 

If AB doesn't do more, then I agree about looking to trade him over Monta. If there's a good deal out there like Bogut, then it's worth considering. AB is only 24, so he's still has upside unless he's hurt. He's not the same player he was two years ago. It could be mental, too. I dunno.

Battier is 32. He's yours.

 

How many games do you actually think Gerald Wallace is going to win for this team? You are using two very different standards in how you are comparing Ellis and Wallace. In the end you are saying you want to trade a star for a role player. That doesn't make sense. Even if you look at the stats D Wright is basically as productive as Wallace. No way I'd trade Ellis so this team has another D Wright caliber of a player.

 

For me, the thing with Wallace is he's in slow decline mode. It's somewhat reminiscent of Shawn Marion, who's still a good and decent player, but continually declined from amazing to above average. Wallace his his peak last year, and has declined alot this year. I hope I'm wrong, but I can see that he'll keep losing effectiveness until he's a highly overpaid player in 3-4 years.

I'm more motivated to move Ellis before the start of next season or so, since the Ellis/Curry backcourt is entertaining but not a winning combination. The reasoning behind my initial arguments being that Curry and Ellis are both great offensive players, but both need a defensive perimeter partner. And if I had to choose one, I'd stick with Curry.

Bogut is way too far out of our league, too much of a cornerstone in Milwaukee, and it doesn't make sense for them to trade one center for another. Plus they're in a win-now mode. Although I understand that maybe it's not him specifically, but that type of player (though there's not a lot of Boguts just lying around).

Another option is just trying to shore up the bench by trading for a backup perimeter defensive player, but the biggest problem with that we lack anything of value to trade. There's tons of expiring contracts out there and with the lockout and uncertainty of the new CBA, teams aren't biting on them. We don't have draft picks left, and B.Wright is the only prospect of marginal trade value we have on the bench. At best, we could probably get horrible defensive players/offense-oriented players like Blatche or Thornton for expiring contracts and B.Wright. Blatche is quite possibly the worst defensive player I've ever personally seen, though - but hey, he might have value to someone else; who knows? Ideally, there's young cheap guys who are maybe even a bit underrated, like Courtney Lee, or Thaddeus Young. But they're not quite worth giving up too much for, and we just don't have the right pieces really, unless their teams want expiring contracts.

 

I already explained it. EFF doesn't value shooting efficiency (TS% & eFG%, both which measure the difficulty of FGA, 3PA, and FTA). When you're talking about efficiency, you need to factor shooting efficiency in because missed shots lead to the possessions lost (70% of the time).

FG% has been proven to not be a good measure of efficiency. That's why we have TS% and eFG% and other advanced metrics. Compare Martin's shooting efficiency to Monta's and you have a more efficient player.

The link I provided is saying EFF is NOT a good measure of efficiency. EFF is not a popular measure amongst the stat nerds (this much I know).

Monta's not going to improve much more. Players reach their peak around 25 years old. This whole exercise isn't about saying we need to trade Monta (although phil might disagree), because I'd rather have Monta than Kevin Martin. Monta is NOT the more efficient scorer, but he's a more dynamic player with insane athletic ability. There's always room for that type of player. We already had a Kevin Martin player in Maggette and it didn't work out. And Kevin Martin's performance isn't creating that many wins for Houston. From a scoring efficiency standpoint, it's important to acknowledge certain things, but it doesn't mean that player is "better." It just means we need open our eyes up a bit more and try to distinguish perception from reality.

Monta isn't terribly inefficient. He's average. That along with the other numbers he's putting up is good enough to consider him an All-Star.

But the real question is, is he the right fit for the Warriors? I think Biedrins has more value than Monta because he's 9M/year center who rebounds at an insane rate, doesn't demand the ball (making him efficient), and solidifies the frontcourt. Who else can fill that role? Bogut? Forget it...pipe dream.

It would be better for the Warriors to replace Monta with a regular sized SG that we can consistently rely on to play defense and score within the system.

Nothing against Monta, but he's not perfect and so far, his production hasn't resulted in .500 ball. It's not all on him, obviously, but he's our top scorer and I'd say key player to help this team become better. If it doesn't happen soon with a healthy roster, then we are in trouble.

 

That's just stupid. Battier is a good player, but if you step out of your clam shell, you'll realize Monta has more value than that, despite how you personally feel about him.

 

Biedrins is definitely a role player. We need to realize this. He's never going to be your go-to guy or a guy that's going to give you heavy minutes (although more than 30 a night would be nice). But as a role player on the right team, such as 2007-2008, he has tremendous value. We currently have a team that has potential to do some damage, but I don't has found its chemistry on the court just yet. Retaining Biedrins for that purpose (to once again fill an important role on a good team) is important.

I feel that Biedrins out of the lineup does more harm than Monta out of the lineup, if we're going to talk about who to trade.

 

Yeah, Wallace isn't exactly a guy you'd lean on for major production, but he's a difference maker on defense and a player's defense doesn't usually decline the same as offense. Plus, he only has 2 years left on his contract. He's not going to hamper the cap long-term.

Igoudala makes more sense long-term, but he already has a pretty large contract.

 

Gerald Wallace is merely a "role" player? And Monta is the "star"? Who has the rose colored glasses? Gerald Wallace was an All-Star last year, one of the best rebounding forwards in the NBA and a first team All-Defense team member. Monta was left behind as seemingly every guard in the West was considered then dismissed as injured until Jason Kidd, he of the 8 ppg, was selected.

Dr. Kajita, as for coming out of my "clam", well that just your uninformed, ignorant opinion. Your personal attack is just an indicator that you lack anything substantive to say. I used to somewhat respect your words, but no longer. Shame, I thought this board was better than that. Battier is a legitimate, very good, player who has been a Defensive Player of the Year contender and all-Defense team member.

I have seen what a lazy, high-scoring, high volume shooting team can accomplish. I've watched the NBA since Jerry West was in his prime, Lew Alcindor was the MVP, and Wilt the Stilt was still a force. My opinions are based upon that history. Battier has a better chance of winning an NBA championship than Monta will ever have.