Zombie Breaking down B-Edge's Breakdown (2013)

Part 1
Part 2

He must have been drinking whatever Eric was. That, or I really need to re-look at the impact Nick Young, Steve Blake, Shawne Williams, Jordan Farmar and Xavier Henry can provide, because I must've missed it the first time.
Each of the three guys he talked about (Nash, Gasol, K*be) is one year older and, in K*be's case, a significant career-altering injury past the time that they had to scrape to get to the 8th seed with Dwight Howard on their team. The 27 y/o guy who led the league in rebounding, put up 18/12 a night, played some modicum of D. You're replacing that with Jordan Hill, Chris Kaman (who's even more decrepit than Blanky, at this point) and Robert Sacre, and you think that the older guys can IMPROVE on last year's position?

Actually, there aren't. He's had 27 games in his career (7 last year) where he's had 22/11, 50% shooting and a block. I'm not even discounting ones where he didn't have an assist or steal. And of those 7, one was his 30/21 against GSW at the end of the year and one was his 33/11 against OKC, neither of which I would call "quiet" games. They were LaMonster games. So roughly 7% of the time, LMA has a 22/11/50% game that's "quiet". That doesn't mean he sucks, it means that you may not be paying the attention you thought you were, or that you may be misremembering.

Good to know that, while it took Tyson Chandler 11 years to become 'Tyson Chandler ca. 2011', you're expecting Leonard to not look lost on D this year. No problem.

Or...from Nik and Yuyuza and other clowns on this board...
http://sportstwo.com/threads/130019-Many-teams-calling-about-Raef?
http://sportstwo.com/threads/233930.../page2?highlight=albatrosshighlight=albatross
http://sportstwo.com/threads/176065-what-value-would-you-be-ok-trading-Roy-for?highlight=albatross
http://sportstwo.com/threads/225241-Official-D-League-Thread/page2?highlight=albatross

While I hate to bring up another LMA point, his play "has been slipping" since 2011. While it hasn't been pretty, I don't think anyone doesn't think we're on the upswing right now, despite that.

I call bollocks. Last year we were 20-17 when Nic suffered his first "major" injury. Then Wes was hurt. Then LMA got dinged up. Three of our 4 best players were sub-optimal for the next 30 games, and we were still 33-36 with 13 games left in the season before we started shutting people down. That's "competitive", and it happened last year with multiple starters down and with the 2nd-crappiest bench in league history getting landfills of minutes. This year, if Batum or Wes goes down, Wright steps in--someone who's not far removed from being an above-average NBA starter. If Lillard goes down, Mo Williams is a starting-caliber (if no longer an All-Star caliber) PG, not Nolan Smith or Ronnie Price. If LMA goes down that hurts more, but I think in that case you'd see smaller-ball lineups like Lillard/(Mo or Wes)/Wright/Batum/Lopez and maybe some garbageman Robinson. In essence, we're supremely more prepared for injuries than we were last year, when 3 of our best 4 players were hobbled with something for roughly the middle third of the season, and we were still flailing around the edges of the playoff race. God help us all, my ***.

I think it's much more likely that the team rides a streak like the 13-gamer that got the Roy/LMA playoff era started. As pointed out already, there's a shot that we go something like 2-8 or 3-7 on our two big 5-game road swings in Feb/Mar. But there's also plenty of opportunity to ride big home wins and shorter, west-coast trips. We have veterans who know how to play and prepare as the main cogs of this team. Variances are much lower--the chances that half the team stinks on a given night are significantly lower this year.

Since it's easy to snipe without exposing yourself, I'll throw something out there. Last year, the core of the team was 20-15 after an admittedly easy first part of the schedule, but that was also with LMA playing at his Dirk-Light (and hip-bothering-still?) worst. It was trying to find out how to maximize success from a team with no D and no bench. And they were still 20-15! Then Nic got injured, Wes followed, Lillard got scouted a bit, they hit a couple of losing streaks and then shut it all down. This was not a 33-win roster last year, even with the scrubby bench.

This year, that's almost all changed. I think, for better or worse, Stotts knows what he has (and doesn't) with LMA. I think you'll see fewer shots by LMA, but better ones. Would not be surprised to see a 23/9 season from him, and an increase in close-to-the-rim shots back up near the 8-9% range rather than the 4% he started last year off with.
I think you've already seen a taste of what the improved defense can do. There's much less gambling (check out the lower steals/blocks numbers, but improved FG% defense). They had 3pt defense covered last year, but swapping Lopez (and Freeland?!!?) for Hickson/Leonard at C is going to make the team pretty beastly on post D and on the boards. Lillard not being a total sieve can only help. I don't hold much hope out for Mo or Wright on D, but they'll at least know where they're supposed to be on the floor, unlike, say, Nolan or Barton last year.
The depth/injury issue has already been covered, but I'm quite happy with it. Right now, Leonard/Barton/CJ aren't SNIFFING the rotation, and it's because there are competent players on the 2-deep. If any of those guys hits the rotation (because of injury or player ineffectiveness), you're still ahead of where the bench was last season, where the team was able to stay competitive until shutting down/tanking.

I really see this as a team that can make a move in the West. At first I was going to be "normal" and check in at 42 wins or so, but that's not me. I can't help but look at the offense (which will be a top 10 in the league, I have no doubt) and the massively-improved defense (which most of the prognosticators are glossing over). The team started 20-15 last year, which corresponds to a rate of 47-35 all year. They couldn't sustain that. I think they could this year, given a bench. And I think that there are more 9-1 stretches for this team then 2-8 stretches. I think this team is poised to become a lot like the 2009-10 Orlando Magic, with LMA/Lopez in the middle for 48 minutes instead of Dwight Howard, but with upgrades of Lillard>Jameer and Batum>Turk.

I think LMA will be an all-star if he plays like LaMonster and we're top-5 or so in the W at the break. I don't think Lillard gets in at guard unless he's putting up some massive stats (24/8 or something, which is on the high side of possible) on a winner and Westbrook/K*be are still injured/don't play (K*be's getting voted in). Batum probably won't be an all-star, but very, very good.
Mo and Wright should cancel out each other in the 6MoY vote, and depending on how much time he gets Robinson may get some Most Improved votes.

The team has enough shooters than if it challenges the 3-point attempts record, it could be really, really good. Low end, 49 wins. Depending on playoff matchups, we might make the WCF.

 

I guess we'll see.

 

No truth to the rumor that I'm under the influence of some of mags' aquaponic, uh, herbs.

 

As I pointed out, HCP, which major injury do you think will crush us? But wouldn't crush, say, LAC/SAS/OKC/GSW? I pointed out above that the 2 worst-cases are LMA and Lillard. If LAC lost Blake or CP3, they're worse than 47 wins. If SAS loses Duncan/Parker, they're not going very far. If Durant goes down (or Westbrook relapses) they're worse than our healthy team. Curry/Lee....it goes on and on.

 

OK, let's assume you're right and Gasol will be a much center than Howard. Who's going to be the PF who's similar to Gasol?

 

What part of him is perfect? The fact that he's a SF? Or that he carried a PER of 4 last year? (To be fair, that was probably hampered by his 28% shooting percentage, or his 24% 3pt percentage). Or that he managed a ORtg of 84? Or is it his defe--nevermind.

 

nah, we were getting national attention with the 2011-12 team started out 7-1 (iirc). I think our team is likable, and has enough star power to be worth talking about nationally. Especially if Lillard keeps improving and getting attention on Rome, Patrick and the like.

I don't think we'll know if we're "legit" until the March road trips. From the 7th to the 28th we play 13 games...5-in-8 Southwest Swing (DAL/HOU/MEM/SAS/NOP), followed by 3-in-5 at home, followed by 5-in-7 (CHA/MIA/ORL/ATL/CHI). If we come out of that stretch with a few quality wins, they'll start taking notice for real. When did GSW become a "must-watch" team last year? It was March/April, iirc.