This is where it gets interesting. Is making the playoffs as an also ran better than potentially adding a final piece at a forward position?
The issue is we aren't really sure how good Scoot/Sharpe and to an extent even Ant will be in their primes. Certainly possible one or more flops or has injuries or something. In that case we need more top end talent in the draft. I wouldn't aim for role players or mediocre starters in a Dame trade - outside the value they have to eventually flip to a 3rd team. Post Dame the Blazers are just to far away with too many unknowns. If we get a good young player or ideally a Scottie Barnes type with big upside yeah thats great. If not we need to prioritize picks. Picks can help if the Blazers later do still need to add some top end talent, if they need to add the final role players, or if we end up close to the luxury tax and just need backups on cheap contracts. We don't need those role players production now so its better to get an asset such as pick that can be flipped for precisely what is needed at a later time when we better learn what that exact need is.
Do you mean getting a forward via the lottery next year? So far there does not look like a lot of options, which means every team who needs a forward will be going after the one who rises during the season. Granted someone always does come out of nowhere, but they often need time to develop. I would rather make the playoffs next year to give us some hope.
If anything, I actually think making the playoffs with a Scoot and Shaedon tandem year 1 would be the best thing for this team. Even if they aren’t the best players right away, we’re going to remember this as their first run as a backcourt. FWIW, Dame and CJ having that surprise run in year 1 post-LA propelled us to several straight years in the playoffs. This time around, losing our 1st doesn’t hurt us as much as the one in the Affalo trade. If we made a playoff run, one or many of these things would have happened for us to get to that point: 1) Scoot is amazing right away, let’s say he replicates Ja’s rookie year 2) Shaedon has a huge leap, no gauge on realistic expectations for him right now for me 3) Ant explodes without Dame on the roster, and his stats/efficiency are similar to his stretch starting without Dame last year 4) Grant is a 22+ppg scorer on good efficiency 5) etc. Any of these contributions would be welcomed. When LA left, we literally almost had nothing outside of the backcourt. This time around, we still have pieces on this roster that we know will not be long term pieces for our future (Ant, Grant). Winning only bolsters their value. I will be rooting for wins, but won’t be heartbroken with the losses.
Even if the top 4 happen we are still going to be a very high (top 4) lottery team. after the top 4 we have nothing that wins us consistent games in the NBA. I am assuming they trade Dame before the season starts.
YES. You're talking about the 15th pick or worse. That can be acquired in a trade. Also, there's no reason the "final piece" has to be a 2024 draft pick. Edit: The Blazers drafted two forwards in the 2023 draft.
Players ask for trades. Dame's trade request is a dead end. He may never be traded, or not traded during the entire 2023-24 season. There are too many variables to answer vague questions about the future. What if Dame stays and Simons is traded?
I found someone new that I don’t think has been mentioned yet. Age: 18 (19 on 06/07/24) Height: 6’10 (shoes or barefoot not indicated) Wingspan: 7’1 Weight: 210lbs NBA Comparison: Pau Gasol No idea where he could land in the draft. If it’s true that it is a weak overall draft, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him as a lock in the top 10. Sneaky athletic. Currently, he isn’t a shooter. But he can play on the perimeter has a pretty polished post game. He can catch the ball in the post or dribble into one—he is going to dominate anyone smaller than him down there. At only 18, I would say he is just as good as Watford is in the post, only he’s much more athletic and is a threat to throw it down. There is a lot of resemblance to Pau, but I think Izan will be asked to play further from the basket than Pau was ever asked to in his earlier years. With shooting now required to be effective in the league, I think he will get to a point where he is Pau+ on offense, and much more switchable on defense. Insticts-wise, he has good BB-IQ and makes the right pass. He also has really good touch around around the basket. As the video says, Izan is a 95% chance to roll than pop, but I think he’s so good at scoring around the basket than it won’t be a problem. When he puts on more weight and is a threat to shoot, I can see Scoot and Izan becoming a top PnR combo in the league. Defensively, he has shown flashes of being a very good rim protector. There’s hope that he is agile enough to actually switch effectively. Right now, my favorite prospect so far in this class. I like him more as a prospect than some guys I’ve seen recently like Jabari Smith, Jarace Walker, Hendricks, Kuminga. I think that with his attributes and play style, he could develop into either our starting PF next to a really good defensive C, or our C and anchor our defense behind two perimeter forwards. Right now, he’s playing at PF next to Aday Mara. The key to him playing PF would be his effectiveness switching on defense. If he could do that effectively, I love the idea of finding a dominate defensive C to pair with him and Shae/Scoot. If he proves to be a better rim protector, I want to find the two best 3-D forwards.
Very interesting player. Suddenly, this becomes a huge draft for us given how many bigs there are in next year’s draft. So far, Bradshaw, Clingan, and Almansa have been impressive to me. Add this guy to the list.
I've been watching what footage I can. It's definitely not a good draft but that doesn't mean there won't be All-Stars or good quality players who can start someday. If last year was wings/forwards, there seems to be a good amount of big men in this draft. No superstar big man but maybe guys who can be like Marc Gasol/Jusuf Nurkic/Tyson Chandler. Here are my estimations based on their current levels (09/23). Matas Buzelis - Chandler Parsons+Tre Murphy III w/ potential to be like Gordon Hayward+Rashard Lewis. His recent showings weren't that good but he still has an entire year to prove himself. Don't expect Franz Wagner, essentially. Instead, expect a guy who can be 16/5/4 at his prime, especially on a good team. If needed and if he develops his playmaking/ball handling, he may be able to get 20/5/5 on a good team at his peak. Stephon Castle - Joe Johnson+Evan Fournier Maybe this makes him Manu Ginobili-esque? I don't know if Portland needs this considering it has Sharpe. I think this is what the Hornets or Magic need. Aday Mara - Marc Gasol+Brook Lopez Just a good player, in general. I don't know that I see superstar written on him but his footwork and well rounded skillset should make him a good center on a contending team just like the player comps I listed above. Isiah Collier - Kyrie Irving+Stephon Marbury His offense likely isn't as good as the guys I compared him to but he should be the top PG in the draft. I've pointed it out before but the majority of top point guards (not combo guards) drafted since 2005 have turned out to be All-Stars. Something like 15 out of 18 or whatever. I'd expect the same here and for him to go Top 3. Probably the only guy in the lottery with potential to be a perennial All-Star Alexandre Sarr - Emeka Okafor with more skills (ex. jumpshot range, passing) His lack of elite footwork and shot creation means he'll be limited like Okafor was. Maybe this will make him DeAndre Ayton-esque but I don't see anything to suggest he is as talented of a prospect as Ayton. Some say he moves more like a wing/forward so maybe that can be his niche? Even then, again, shot creation is limited and he isn't noted to be a strong rebounder. Donovan Clingan - Tyson Chandler+Brad Daughterty I think Clingan can be what Duren and Kessler were, in this draft. By that, they'll fall out of the Top 10 but be considered steals. Don't think he'll be as good of a defender/shot blocker as Kessler and Duren can be. Not as athletic and mobile, either. But he'll be very serviceable. Really like how fluid he can be while moving, often knowing to keep his hands up for a rebound or when attacking. Also, I still think Zach Edey can be a stud. Don't be surprised that, in a weak draft, the best player may be a guy taken outside the lottery. Not saying that'll be Edey but he has some unique skills and efficiency levels that I like. Zach Edey - Yao Ming. Now, obviously, I don't know if he reaches Yao level but I think he has the size, the build, the gait, the moves, and the hand-eye coordination that makes him similar to Yao Ming. Imagine Nurkic before he got hurt but more difficult to guard due to his height and wingspan. Less skilled passer and less mobile but better efficiency due to his height and wingspan. If Portland comes out of this draft with Buzelis AND Edey/Clingan, I'd consider it a massive win that will boost Sharpe and Scoot's chances at winning a ring.
If the Blazers come out of the draft with Edey, I’m gonna lose my shit. He’s going to be a liability on defense due to his lack of mobility
With all due respect, you do not want this. Not that it's likely to happen anyway considering how packed the West is. The reason I say this, though, is because the majority of championship teams are composed of one superstar who can legitimately contend for MVP surrounded by three All-Stars or borderline All-Stars. The team should have some depth and 3/5 starters should play defense. Ex: Giannis-Jrue-Khris-Lopez///Jokic-Gordon-Murray-MPJ///Curry-Klay-Draymond-Wiggins or Barnes or KD///Kawhi-Lowry-Siakam-Gasol///Lebron-Kyrie-Love-Smith (his last good year, showed up in 2016 Finals)///Kawhi-Parker-Duncan-Manu///Lebron-Wade-Bosh-Ray///Dirk-Marion-Terry-Kidd (or Chandler, if you considered 2011 Kidd to be lesser).....previous eras - Dr. J-Moses-Cheeks-Toney or Jones///Isiah-Rodman-Lambier-Dumars///Hakeem-Vernon or Drexler-Cassell-Kenny or Otis///MJ-Pippen-Rodman or Grant-Armstrong or Kukoc/// Magic and Bird's teams Exceptions occur usually with two MVP caliber superstars who are assisted with a third All-Star or borderline All-Star. Ex. Shaq-Kobe-Rice///Bron-AD-Kuzma///Wade-Bron-Bosh For the most part, these are the traits of the 60s/80s/90s champions (and runners-up squads) and also, the 2010s-current era. 1970s and 2000s weren't as talented (possibly due to league expansions) and for good reason, this is why we romanticize the 60s and 80s/90s most. Blazers are very fortunate to have Scoot and Sharpe, two potential superstars instead of just one guy. If they can secure a Marc Gasol-esque center AND a Gordon Hayward type wing, they are in good shape, going forward. Unfortunately, with international players adding a new layer of depth unlike ever before and new salary rules possibly making it difficult to leave teams, many other young teams also have this blueprint. Rockets, Pistons, Hornets, Thunder, Spurs, Kings. Pacers and Magic not that far off (much closer than Portland). By that, you want to avoid being like the Timberwolves or Dame-CJ Blazers who only have two stars and maybe a third guy, which makes it so they're contending for 6th-10th seed every year. Furthermore, this blueprint also suggests that short point guards aren't as relevant as wings/forwards are. That the last 14 out of 17 top PG prospects became All-Stars with Lowry/Brunson/Simons/Kemba/Jrue/etc type players ensuring that 20 good PGs are available at any given time means talented point guards are a dime a dozen. Wings, forwards, and centers are much rarer. Unless you want a repeat of the last decade, the goal should be to find the "final two" to put around Scoot and Sharpe. Maybe Murray can be one of them. Regardless, the draft is probably the only way to go considering FAs and even trade targets reject Portland.
Like you say it is unlikely to happen. However if it did, with how packed the West is, that would not be too bad either. That would mean a few players stepped up quite a bit. I would take that over the 12-pick in the draft. The unknown player you are alluding to probably needs to be a top 5 pick in a currently starless draft. Ideally, for me, is for the league to be so competitive that the Blazers play well and win 35 games and still get a top 5 pick.
That’s right. Let’s not be too good this season, we need this guy or Holland. https://twitter.com/ushernba/status/1707779829393682489
Haven’t watched too much of Holland, but he looked like RJ Barrett to me. Sarr sounds like a sure-fire top 3 pick right now. I’m so unbelievably bullish on the team right now that I can’t see how we could be that high unless Ant and Grant are traded. But man…if we drafted Sarr. He looks like he could be Mobley, and I LOVE Mobley. I’ve heard JJJ comparisons as well. Having DA start at the 5, then bringing in Sarr to play both backup 4 and 5. That’s potentially scary. Scoot and Sharpe starting together in ‘24-‘25. DA in the middle, Sarr at backup 4/5. We would have all the picks in the world to find or trade for a superstar wing.
