President Obama Working Miracles

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Bush saw gains in 2000, 2002, 2004.

I'm just talking the mid-term election between getting elected and running again. Hence 2002 and we all know Bush's "War on Terror" and the circumstances that predated the election is the reason why he saw gains. I believe Bush even pushed the congress to vote on war before the actual elections.

Obama losing seats is all but a given. Now losing the house altogether would prove your point which I don't think will happen.
 
I'm just talking the mid-term election between getting elected and running again. Hence 2002 and we all know Bush's "War on Terror" and the circumstances that predated the election is the reason why he saw gains. I believe Bush even pushed the congress to vote on war before the actual elections.

Obama losing seats is all but a given. Now losing the house altogether would prove your point which I don't think will happen.

If Democrats keep forcing legislation that isn't bipartisan and that the people clearly don't want, it will happen. I think they care too much about keeping their cushy jobs than doing anything stupid like passing that kind of legislation.
 
If Democrats keep forcing legislation that isn't bipartisan and that the people clearly don't want, it will happen. I think they care too much about keeping their cushy jobs than doing anything stupid like passing that kind of legislation.

The problem here is people aren't going to turn to the republicans or not in the way you're hoping. Both parties are a joke right now. They're looking for their revolution and they haven't found it yet. Doesn't mean they won't, but at this time, both parties are struggling and the republicans just don't have the approval ratings to make the gains needed to take control of the house. We're talking 30 to 40 seats or something. That's a lot.

Good article on whats happening right now with poll numbers and all that

As I've been telling people all week here in Pittsburgh, there's ample reason for Democrats to be worried -- perhaps deeply so -- about 2010. Without major intervening events like 9/11, the party that wins the White House almost always loses seats at the midterm elections -- since World War II, an average of 17 seats in the House after the White House changes parties. Democrats have substantially more seats to defend than Republicans, particularly in the House. They appear to face a significant enthusiasm gap after having dominated virtually all close elections in 2006 and 2008. And the economy and health care are contingencies that could work either way, but which probably present more downside risk to Democrats than upside over the next 12-18 months, particularly if some version of health care reform fails to pass. While the Democrats are not extraordinary likely to lose the House, such an outcome is certainly well within the realm of possibility (I'd put the chance at somewhere between 1-in-4 and 1-in-3). The Senate picture is a bit brighter for them, but they are probably more likely now to lose seats in the chamber than to add to their majority, in spite of the spate of Republican retirements in Ohio, Missouri and other states. In a wave-type election, a net loss of as many as 4-6 seats is conceivable.

With all that said, I would reserve some healthy skepticism for polls that apply aggressive "likely voter" models to elections like the midterms that won't occur for another 16 months. In Pennsylvania, for example, Rasmussen now finds Arlen Specter a 12-point underdog to Pat Toomey among what they define as likely voters. Toomey also leads a more "generic" Democrat, Specter's primary rival Joe Sestak, by 8 points in Rasmussen's polling. By contrast, Research 2000, which in its polling for Daily Kos also uses a likely voter model (but evidently a less aggressive one), puts Specter 5 points ahead of Toomey and Sestak one point ahead of the Republican. These numbers represent big downward shifts for the Democrats, particularly in Specter's case, since Research 2000 last polled the race in May. But obviously, there is a big difference between Specter's -12 number under Rasmussen's likely voter model and his +5 under Research 2000's.

We can learn a little bit about these likely voter models by evaluating other polls that these firms conduct. Rasmussen's likely voter universe, for instance, trusts Republicans more not just on hot-button issues like the economy and health care, but also on traditional Democratic strengths like Social Security (by 4 points) and education (by 3 points).

If the electorate that goes to the polls next November is in fact one which trusts Republicans more than Democrats on education and social security, then Democrats will lose the Senate seat in Pennsylvania and undoubtedly almost every other competitive race -- it will be really, really ugly for them. But I just have a little bit of trouble accepting that as a likely scenario. In 2004 exit polling, voters who listed education as their top priority went to John Kerry over George W. Bush by a 3:1 margin. As of pre-Katrina 2005, when Social Security was being polled frequently in what was not a particularly great time for the Democratic party, Democrats led Republicans by an average of about 15 points on the issue -- and that was long before the market collapse that would seem to have undermined Republicans' calls to partially privatize the system.

Is it possible that the electorate which is voting in November 2010 will be so down on the Democrats that they trust Republicans more on issues like these? Sure, it is possible -- if the enthusiasm gap is wide enough, if Obama's approval is low enough, if the health care debate has been bungled enough, and if the economy is still hemorrhaging jobs. But I'd consider it something of a worst-case scenario. That's probably the best way to regard these Rasmussen polls for the time being.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
 
Sounds like 538 is having buyer's remorse and is weaseling his way out of all the pro-Obama/pro-Democrat twisting of data he did and is doing the CYA thing. Making excuses before the fact for his guy and his party.

He neglects to consider the chinese water torture aspect of the polls. They feed on themselves. If a politician's popularity is falling, it'll continue to fall because people see the last poll wasn't so good.

On the other hand, Obama really has been the worst president (so far) in my lifetime (going back to Ike). I think people would be more supportive of national health care or $800B worth of spending on democrats' pork if they weren't seeing the economy shedding jobs, strong companies having difficulties, their neighbors losing their homes, etc. In spite of all that, my preference would be for him to be the best president of my lifetime, which would mean people are not having trouble finding jobs or losing their life savings.

I don't want republicans or democrats in office. If we can't elect more ordinary citizens who'll go serve and then go back to their jobs, I'd be far more satisfied with any combination of democrats and republicans that results in complete and utter gridlock.
 
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Sounds like 538 is having buyer's remorse and is weaseling his way out of all the pro-Obama/pro-Democrat twisting of data he did and is doing the CYA thing. Making excuses before the fact for his guy and his party.

He neglects to consider the chinese water torture aspect of the polls. They feed on themselves. If a politician's popularity is falling, it'll continue to fall because people see the last poll wasn't so good.

On the other hand, Obama really has been the worst president (so far) in my lifetime (going back to Ike). I think people would be more supportive of national health care or $800B worth of spending on democrats' pork if they weren't seeing the economy shedding jobs, strong companies having difficulties, their neighbors losing their homes, etc. In spite of all that, my preference would be for him to be the best president of my lifetime, which would mean people are not having trouble finding jobs or losing their life savings.

I don't want republicans or democrats in office. If we can't elect more ordinary citizens who'll go serve and then go back to their jobs, I'd be far more satisfied with any combination of democrats and republicans that results in complete and utter gridlock.

You much rather see republicans in control than dems though? You may not identify with either or, but social views aside, you probably consider republicans the lesser of two evils. I'm just guessing based on what I'm reading. I really don't care like deception might :)

538 was pretty accurate in the 2008 election regardless of his political views and they're right about those rammsuseen polls you're always posting. They lean conservative and they did in the election too.

Electoral-vote.com has been pretty accurate too and nothing seems to indicate a republican take over is imminent.

I don't think anyone can tell the future because 2010 will be different than 2009 especially if this recession ends, but it just seems like 40 seats would pretty extreme but yes anything is possible. We'll just have to wait and see.

I do think that if a 3rd party were to ever rise up, now would be as good as a time as any.
 
I'll repeat myself:

I don't want republicans or democrats in office. If we can't elect more ordinary citizens who'll go serve and then go back to their jobs, I'd be far more satisfied with any combination of democrats and republicans that results in complete and utter gridlock.

Here's a polling firm that got the 2008 election within 1% or 1.5%. He polls likely voters.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/generic_congressional_ballot

Republican candidates have now matched their biggest lead over Democrats of the past several years on the Generic Congressional Ballot.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that 43% would vote for their district’s Republican congressional candidate while 38% would opt for his or her Democratic opponent.

The level of support for Democratic candidates is unchanged this week, but backing for GOP candidates rose one point from a week ago. This is now the eighth straight week Republicans have led on the Generic Ballot.

These findings come at the same time that voters, for the first time in over two years of polling, say they trust Republicans slightly more than Democrats on the handling of the issue of health care.
 
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I'll repeat myself:

I don't want republicans or democrats in office. If we can't elect more ordinary citizens who'll go serve and then go back to their jobs, I'd be far more satisfied with any combination of democrats and republicans that results in complete and utter gridlock.

so when disaster strikes- u want govt to be mired in partisan politricks? u guys really need legitimate alternatives that would only be feasible in a multi party setup. thats where consensus rules!!!
 
Likely voters tend to be older which trends more republican and that's why rams trends republican.

It doesn't take into the account the turnouts that have been going on since 2006 for the dems. Now they could all stay home because Obama's presidency is still on it's way down and the republicans could run away with it or some could turnout and the gains for republicans will be a lot, but not enough which is what I think is probably going to happen.
 
Likely voters tend to be older which trends more republican and that's why rams trends republican.

It doesn't take into the account the turnouts that have been going on since 2006 for the dems. Now they could all stay home because Obama's presidency is still on it's way down and the republicans could run away with it or some could turnout and the gains for republicans will be a lot, but not enough which is what I think is probably going to happen.


Likely voters are determined by asking them a few questions that suggests they'll vote next election. Is a poll that includes kindergärtners relevant? No, because they can't vote. least likely, anyhow.

I've posted a recent gallup poll, not likely voters:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/122333/Political-Ideology-Conservative-Label-Prevails-South.aspx#2

Everything I've seen for the past 40 years tells me that republicans stayed home the past couple of elections.
 
Today's PEW poll:

http://people-press.org/report/536/white-house-gop-leaders-at-odds

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Across the board declines:

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My point has nothing to do with the polls and yes I'm quite aware that the democratic party is not popular at all. Neither are the Republicans though. In fact, Washington is just not popular with American people. I think most know this.

My point is 40 seats give or take is a lot. Republican turnout should be strong, but they'll need nearly another Republican Revolution to take back the House. They've got a lot going against that such as they'll only be out of power for four years as opposed to 40. They're not popular. Obama's approval ratings will probably rise once America is out of the recession which will probably happen next year. They're leadership is not very strong either. Say what you want about Bush, but at least he was able to lead them. They don't have that right now.

Again, I'm not saying it won't happen, I'm saying it seems unlikely.
 
My point has nothing to do with the polls and yes I'm quite aware that the democratic party is not popular at all. Neither are the Republicans though. In fact, Washington is just not popular with American people. I think most know this.

My point is 40 seats give or take is a lot. Republican turnout should be strong, but they'll need nearly another Republican Revolution to take back the House. They've got a lot going against that such as they'll only be out of power for four years as opposed to 40. They're not popular. Obama's approval ratings will probably rise once America is out of the recession which will probably happen next year. They're leadership is not very strong either. Say what you want about Bush, but at least he was able to lead them. They don't have that right now.

Again, I'm not saying it won't happen, I'm saying it seems unlikely.

Bush led them like lemmings off a cliff. Obama's doing the same to the Democrats. That Republican Revolution was in the immediate aftermath of the last time the Democrats controlled the house and senate and white house and tried to foist a giant health care program on the public.
 
Bush led them like lemmings off a cliff. Obama's doing the same to the Democrats. That Republican Revolution was in the immediate aftermath of the last time the Democrats controlled the house and senate and white house and tried to foist a giant health care program on the public.

one big difference in 15 years- the demographics are rapidly changing and the republicans seem to be antagonizing the latino's and not courting them like what bush & rove astutely did.
 
Bush led them like lemmings off a cliff. Obama's doing the same to the Democrats. That Republican Revolution was in the immediate aftermath of the last time the Democrats controlled the house and senate and white house and tried to foist a giant health care program on the public.

Oh he most certainly did lead them off a cliff, but they all followed him down it. It took six years though. Right now the republicans don't have anyone to follow good or bad.

The demographics are indeed changing. Young people are also turning out more and more at the polls and they're voting dem. A shift has slowly been happening. Of course they could not vote in 2010 or they could vote republican, but they also could still vote dem which I think most will.

This is still a conservative country, but maybe not as much as it was in 1994 and that could push back a revolution another two years.
 
Two articles today.

http://freep.com/article/20090820/BUSINESS06/908200420/1319/

[FONT=arial, helvetica][FONT=Times New Roman, serif]Canadians visit U.S. to get health care[/FONT]

[FONT=Times New Roman, Serif]Deal lets many go to Michigan hospitals
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BY PATRICIA ANSTETT
FREE PRESS MEDICAL WRITER
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[FONT=arial, helvetica]Hospitals in border cities, including Detroit, are forging lucrative arrangements with Canadian health agencies to provide care not widely available across the border.[/FONT]
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Agreements between Detroit hospitals and the Ontario Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care for heart, imaging tests, bariatric and other services provide access to some services not immediately available in the province, said ministry spokesman David Jensen.
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[FONT=arial, helvetica]The agreements show how a country with a national care system -- a proposal not part of the health care changes under discussion in Congress -- copes with demand for care with U.S. partnerships, rather than building new facilities.
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[FONT=arial, helvetica]Michael Vujovich, 61, of Windsor was taken to Detroit's Henry Ford Hospital for an angioplasty procedure after he went to a Windsor hospital in April. Vujovich said the U.S. backup doesn't show a gap in Canada's system, but shows how it works.
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[FONT=arial, helvetica]"I go to the hospital in Windsor and two hours later, I'm done having angioplasty in Detroit," he said. His $38,000 bill was covered by the Ontario health ministry.[/FONT]
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Canada eyed in the health care debate
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Dany Mercado, a leukemia patient from Kitchener, Ontario, is cancer-free after getting a bone marrow transplant at the Barbara Ann Karmanos Cancer Institute in Detroit.
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Told by Canadian doctors in 2007 he couldn't have the procedure there, Mercado's family and doctor appealed to Ontario health officials, who agreed to let him have the transplant in Detroit in January 2008.
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The Karmanos Institute is one of several Detroit health facilities that care for Canadians needing services not widely available in Canada.
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Canada, for example, has waiting times for bariatric procedures to combat obesity that can stretch to more than five years, according to a June report in the Canadian Journal of Surgery.
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As a result, the Ontario Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care in April designated 13 U.S. hospitals, including five in Michigan and one more with a tentative designation, to perform bariatric surgery for Canadians.
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The agreements provide "more immediate services for patients whose health is at risk," Jensen said.
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[FONT=arial, helvetica]Three Windsor-area hospitals have arrangements with Henry Ford Hospital, Detroit, to provide backup, after-hours angioplasty. Authorities will clear Detroit-Windsor Tunnel traffic for ambulances, if necessary.

The Detroit Medical Center also provides Canadians complex trauma, cancer, neonatal and other care.
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[FONT=arial, helvetica]"In the last few years, we've seen more and more Canadian patients," said Dr. J. Edson Pontes, senior vice president of international medicine at the DMC. They include Canadians such as Mercado, whose care is reimbursed by Canada's health system, as well as people who pay out of pocket to avoid waiting in Canada.[/FONT]
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Pontes declined to give revenue figures for the DMC's international business, but said the program "always has been a profitable entity." About 300 of the DMC's 400 international patients last year came from Canada, he said.
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Tony Armada, chief executive officer of Henry Ford Hospital, said the hospital received $1 million for cardiac care alone.
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Critics of a health care system like Canada's -- a publicly funded system that pays for medically necessary care determined by provinces -- often cite gaps in Canada's care to argue that the United States should not allow its current debate over health care to move it to a socialized system.
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No plan currently under discussion in Congress calls for a universal plan like Canada's, but opponents fear socialized medicine, anyway.
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Canada's U.S. backup care "speaks volumes to why we don't need government to take over health care," Scott Hagerstrom, the state director in Michigan for Americans for Prosperity, said of the Canadian arrangements with Michigan hospitals. "Their system doesn't work if they have to send us their patients."
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But Dr. Uwe Reinhardt, a Princeton University health economist who has studied the U.S. and Canadian health systems, said arrangements with cities like Detroit "are a terrific way to manage capacity" given Canada's smaller health care budget.
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"This is efficient," he said. "At least in Canada, you don't worry about going broke to pay for health care. You do here."
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Pat Somers, vice president of operations at Windsor's Hotel-Dieu Grace Hospital, one of the hospitals that sends patients to Henry Ford, said the issue of finding ways to pay for and prioritize care requests is not in only Windsor.
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"The ministries are quite aware of" waits for care in Sarnia and Hamilton, she said. "That's why we are investing in a wait list strategy" to best determine how to prioritize cases for people who need hip and knee replacements, cataract surgery and treatment for cancer, for example.
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Mercado, 26, faced a longer wait because he could not find a matching blood donor, even though his family conducted a broad search.
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He said doctors told him money was limited for transplants, particularly ones using unmatched donors, which are riskier.
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After his family's doctor wrote the Ontario ministry, the agency agreed to pay $200,000 for the operation.
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[FONT=arial, helvetica]The family, their church and Mercado's school, Conestoga College in Kitchener, raised another $51,000 to cover expenses going back and forth to Detroit.[/FONT]
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"I think of this every day as a gift from God," Mercado said.
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Contact PATRICIA ANSTETT: 313-222-5021 or panstett@freepress.com
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Additional Facts
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[FONT=Times New Roman, serif]Why they come here[/FONT]

[/FONT][FONT=arial, helvetica]Canadians seek health care in the United States for:[/FONT]

  • [FONT=arial, helvetica]Heart care.[/FONT]
  • [FONT=arial, helvetica] Imaging tests.[/FONT]
  • [FONT=arial, helvetica] Bariatric surgery.[/FONT]
  • [FONT=arial, helvetica] Multiple injuries from an accident.[/FONT]
  • [FONT=arial, helvetica] Cancer.[/FONT]
 
Charlie Cook kicks ass (knows his stuff)

http://www.politico.com/blogs/score...on_has_slipped_completely_out_of_control.html

Charlie Cook: Dem situation has 'slipped completely out of control'

Charlie Cook, one of the best political handicappers in the business, sent out a special update to Cook Political Report subscribers Thursday that should send shivers down Democratic spines.

Reviewing recent polling and the 2010 election landscape, Cook can envision a scenario in which Democratic House losses could exceed 20 seats.

"These data confirm anecdotal evidence, and our own view, that the situation this summer has slipped completely out of control for President Obama and Congressional Democrats.

Today, The Cook Political Report’s Congressional election model, based on individual races, is pointing toward a net Democratic loss of between six and 12 seats, but our sense, factoring in macro-political dynamics is that this is far too low," he wrote.

"Many veteran Congressional election watchers, including Democratic ones, report an eerie sense of déjà vu, with a consensus forming that the chances of Democratic losses going higher than 20 seats is just as good as the chances of Democratic losses going lower than 20 seats."

Cook scrupulously avoided any mention that Democratic control of the House is in jeopardy but, noting a new Gallup poll showing Congress’ job disapproval at 70 percent among independents, concluded that the post-recess environment could feel considerably different than when Congress left in August.

"We believe it would be a mistake to underestimate the impact that this mood will have on Members of Congress of both parties when they return to Washington in September, if it persists through the end of the Congressional recess."
 
  • [FONT=arial, helvetica]Heart care.[/FONT]
  • [FONT=arial, helvetica] Imaging tests.[/FONT]
  • [FONT=arial, helvetica] Bariatric surgery.[/FONT]
  • [FONT=arial, helvetica] Multiple injuries from an accident.[/FONT]
  • [FONT=arial, helvetica] Cancer.[/FONT]

thats why americans live longer than canadians, oh no, its the other way around. canada ranks 6th in life expectancy while america ranks a pathetic 35 edging out the ppl of albania.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_life_expectancy
 
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Another clear cut case of working miracles.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125055572526338767.html

Post-Partisan Promise Fizzles

By JONATHAN WEISMAN

WASHINGTON -- Barack Obama campaigned last year on a pledge to end the angry partisanship in Washington. He wasn't the first to promise a post-partisan presidency: Both George W. Bush and Bill Clinton offered a similar change, only to see the mutual hostility between Republicans and Democrats increase while they were in the White House.

Now, just as his predecessors did, Mr. Obama is seeing that promise turn to ashes. Angry town-hall meetings, slumping presidential approval poll numbers and rising opposition to his signature health-care proposals suggest an early resumption of politics as usual.

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Obama critics say that is an inevitable result of his push for far-reaching liberal polices even as he made undefined offers to win over moderates and conservatives. The White House blames Republicans and conservative media commentators, saying they sought to sow dissent from the start.

One thing both sides agree on: Six months in to Mr. Obama's presidency, a growing core of Americans is turning against the president, including some voters he won over during the campaign.

"I thought he was going to unite us as a country. When I heard, 'There's not a white America, there's not a black America, there are the United States of America,' that resonated with me," said Leah Wolczko, a 42-year-old teacher from Manchester, N.H., who described herself as a political independent who had supported Mr. Obama but failed to vote in November. "But when they start talking specifics, well, now we've got some problems."
She objects to what she calls Mr. Obama's big-government, big-spending policies.

In the Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll of 1,011 adults taken from July 24 through July 27, the president's base of support remained relatively high and still firm -- 37% still felt "very positive" about him. His overall approval rating stood at 53%. But the percentage that felt "very negative" has more than tripled since the beginning of the year, hitting 20% nationally, 25% in the South, 23% among those 65 and over, and 24% among men 50 and over.

Mr. Clinton fared worse in his first few months -- going from 7% strongly averse in January 1993 to 25% in June. (Mr. Bush, who entered office in 2001 after a bitter recount fight with 17% of the country feeling very negatively toward him, saw that number improve to 15% by summer.)

Still, the numbers on Mr. Obama "certainly suggest the anti-Obama core is beginning to form," said Democratic pollster Peter Hart, who conducts national surveys for The Wall Street Journal and NBC News.

White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said Mr. Obama hasn't given up his goal of bridging the partisan divide but is realistic. "I don't think the president ever believed that all of the people were going to agree with him all of the time, or certainly that all the people would even agree with him a majority of the time," he said.

When Mr. Obama was inaugurated in January, only 6% of the country felt "very negative" about him, while 43% felt "very positive."

"The day he was elected and it was certified that he was president, he had my full, 100% support, and my commitment to pray for him and his family," said Gloria Twiggs, a retiree in Kenner, La., who didn't vote for Mr. Obama. Now, upset with him on issues from abortion to the presidential plane's photo-op flight over New York in April, which sparked panic, she has a very negative opinion of him. (Mr. Obama wasn't aboard the plane, and the White House official responsible for the flight resigned.)

In January, just 13% of respondents in the Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll strongly disagreed with the notion that Mr. Obama shared their positions on the issues. That has doubled to 25%. The proportion of Americans who strongly disagree that the president is willing to work with people whose viewpoints are different from his own nearly doubled, to 21% from 12% in April.

Anti-Obama paraphernalia has hit stores in competition with the still-hot-selling pro-Obama accoutrement: "Don't Blame Me. I voted for McCain" on bumper stickers and "So...How's That Whole 'Hopey Changey' Thing Working Out For Ya?" on T-shirts. Three of the top five books on this week's New York Times best-seller list are anti-Obama tomes.

Polls show that Americans tend to agree on the nation's problems: soaring health-care costs and the rising ranks of the uninsured; dependence on imported oil; and recession. But getting a consensus on solutions is more difficult, especially given the philosophical gulf over the role government should play.

William D. McInturff, a Republican pollster and Mr. Hart's partner on the Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, placed the date of the breach between the president and those who had given him the benefit of the doubt on March 29. That was when General Motors Corp. Chief Executive Rick Wagoner was pushed out at the administration's behest.

"Our country has an enduring split over the legitimate role of government," Mr. McInturff said. "It sits as the dividing line between who becomes a Republican and who becomes a Democrat."

For some, disappointment with Mr. Obama stems from the foundering economy. "I thought he would've turned it around by now," said Louis Thornton, 44, from Lancing, Tenn., who identified himself late last month to Wall Street Journal/NBC News pollsters as a strong Democrat who feels "very negative" about the president.

Separately, the theme that Mr. Obama has played favorites with minorities surfaced in a number of voter interviews. In the flap over the arrest of Harvard University Prof. Henry Louis Gates, the president "took the side of his race. OK? Let's face it," said Nick Januszczak, 54, a concrete truck driver from Hammond, Ind. Mr. Obama said police "acted stupidly" in Mr. Gates's arrest; the president later said he regretted that remark.

Partisan bickering may be taking a toll simply because Mr. Obama said he would end it. Tom Decamp, 43, of Ramsey, Minn., believes Mr. Obama has done "everything that he said he'd do." But he blames the political arguing in Washington, at least partly, on the president.

"While the Republicans and Democrats fight, you don't really hear much from him anymore," Mr. Decamp said. White House officials have said they believe giving Congress its head is the best way to get legislation through.

Write to
Jonathan Weisman at jonathan.weisman@wsj.com
 
medical tourism occurs all over the world. i posted a link previously about scores of americans going to india for treatment so this isnt just a canadian phenomena
 
medical tourism occurs all over the world. i posted a link previously about scores of americans going to india for treatment so this isnt just a canadian phenomena

The US doesn't have universal health care. The care in canada should be the best that money can buy. You're certainly paying more and more of your GDP on it.

For people who want a lower priced way of getting ELECTIVE surgery done, India's a fine place to go and get it done. ELECTIVE means any surgery you have some time after leaving the doctor/hospital.

Our health care sucks, and is really expensive. Or so you say. Why would a canadian come here?

The answer is in the article.

And we've been over the life expectancy nonsense already. Our awesome health care system can do nothing for someone found shot dead on the street due to gang violence or whatever.
 
The US doesn't have universal health care. The care in canada should be the best that money can buy. You're certainly paying more and more of your GDP on it.

For people who want a lower priced way of getting ELECTIVE surgery done, India's a fine place to go and get it done. ELECTIVE means any surgery you have some time after leaving the doctor/hospital.

Our health care sucks, and is really expensive. Or so you say. Why would a canadian come here?

The answer is in the article.

And we've been over the life expectancy nonsense already. Our awesome health care system can do nothing for someone found shot dead on the street due to gang violence or whatever.

we have murders here in soviet canuckistan as well but we dont link it to the supposed failures of our health care system.

as for the elective surgery- there was some of that and there was also life and death stuff. would u pay 160, 000 thousand dollars for a heart bypass surgery or go to india for the same procedure at 1/16th of the cost?

as for the inflationary pressure on healthcare costs- u guys are saddled with the same problem and at least our system is cheaper (gdp expenditure) and it covers all.

u guys have the best healthcare in the world if your obscenely rich but most ppl arent. going back to the public option- it affords ppl healthcare options which they previously did not have
 
we have murders here in soviet canuckistan as well but we dont link it to the supposed failures of our health care system.

as for the elective surgery- there was some of that and there was also life and death stuff. would u pay 160, 000 thousand dollars for a heart bypass surgery or go to india for the same procedure at 1/16th of the cost?

as for the inflationary pressure on healthcare costs- u guys are saddled with the same problem and at least our system is cheaper (gdp expenditure) and it covers all.

u guys have the best healthcare in the world if your obscenely rich but most ppl arent. going back to the public option- it affords ppl healthcare options which they previously did not have

Heart surgery can be elective. If you leave the hospital and go in the next week to get it done, then it is. If they keep you in the hospital and wheel you up to surgery ASAP, then it's not elective.

I'd rather go to India than not have one at all, which is what the canadian system is known for (not have one at all).

You are misrepresenting the statistics. It'd be like you talking about Obama's overall popularity being 80%, when anyone with a clue figures out that this is only true among democrats.
 
thats why americans live longer than canadians, oh no, its the other way around. canada ranks 6th in life expectancy while america ranks a pathetic 35 edging out the ppl of albania.
life expectancy is not equal to health care.
 
Heart surgery can be elective. If you leave the hospital and go in the next week to get it done, then it is. If they keep you in the hospital and wheel you up to surgery ASAP, then it's not elective.

I'd rather go to India than not have one at all, which is what the canadian system is known for (not have one at all).

You are misrepresenting the statistics. It'd be like you talking about Obama's overall popularity being 80%, when anyone with a clue figures out that this is only true among democrats.

misrepresenting what? if u need care in canada- u will get it. as for heart surgery not being elective- i can only laugh. the only real major criticism has been wait times in emergency rooms for ppl walking in and waiting lists for certain procedures but neither result in death nor debt. and those criticisms have been addressed in large part in recent years with recommendations from royal commissions being implemented.

a couple years ago my father had the angioplasty procedure done a few weeks after the doctor recommended it- my father has no complaints and hopefully he will be with us for many years to come. and as u might know- angioplasty is largely a preventive procedure
 
http://www.surgeryencyclopedia.com/Ce-Fi/Essential-Surgery.html

Essential surgery is an operative procedure that is considered to be vitally necessary for treating a disease or injury. Postponing or deciding against an essential procedure may result in a patient's death or permanent impairment.

Elective surgery is defined as surgery that can be scheduled in advance and is not considered an emergency. Some elective surgeries, however, may be considered essential. For example, an aortic aneurysm is a weak spot in the wall of the aorta, a major blood vessel. If an aortic aneurysm is found during a physical examination or imaging procedure, an aneurysmectomy (surgical repair of an aneurysm) may be scheduled as an elective procedure.
 
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinio...lieve-that-the-nhs-is-sacrosanct-1775088.html


Ian Birrell: Why I don't believe that the NHS is sacrosanct

In this heartfelt polemic, based on his family's experiences in the health service, our writer argues that it suffers from deep flaws – and we are wrong to ignore them

It was a simple thing. Another blood test, some more investigations into whatever flawed gene or missing protein might be the cause of my daughter's troubled life, with her terrible seizures, her blindness, her inability to walk or talk or eat unaided. Over the past 15 years, there have been many such attempts to identify her condition.

One year later, we asked the doctor, a top geneticist at one of the world's most famous hospitals, what had happened to the results. His office told us a rambling story about financial restrictions and the need to send such tests to a laboratory in Germany. They said there was little he could do but promised to pursue our case.

It was a bare-faced lie. The precious vial of blood had been dumped in storage and forgotten. The following day it was despatched to a laboratory in Wales and 40 days later the specialists came up trumps. They identified her condition, an obscure genetic mutation called CDKL5.

The breakthrough was rather mind-blowing, giving us some peace of mind and the chance to talk to families of the hundred or so other children worldwide identified with the condition. It was also life-changing, since it means our other child and close relatives are in no danger of passing on the condition. Indeed, had we known sooner we might have even tried for more children.

But the most shocking thing was not the lying. Nor even the incompetence. It was our total lack of surprise at the turn of events, since after 15 years suffering from the failings of the National Health Service we are prepared for almost any ineptitude.

Of course, everyone loves the NHS now. It is officially sacrosanct. Our doctors are deities, our health care the envy of the world. And anyone who says anything different is an unpatriotic schmuck who should go and join those losers in the United States. (Although American doctors terrified of litigation would have done all the tests possible on my daughter if I'd sufficient insurance, and would think twice about lying to patients.)

So forgive a harsh dose of reality. I used to share these delusional views, wrapped in a comforting blanket of national pride over Bevan's legacy. But that was before the birth of our daughter sent us hurtling into the hell of our health service. Since then, hours and days and months and years have been spent battling bureaucracy, fighting lethargy and observing inefficiency while all the time guarding against the latest outbreak of incompetence.

Despite my daughter being under palliative care, my wife currently spends two hours a day struggling against the system, to say nothing of the other endless appointments that go with being primary carer of a severely disabled child. Right now, following some dramatic hormonal and physical changes, we are waiting to talk to one of our daughter's doctors: the first call went in three weeks ago, followed by three more phone calls and one email. No reply yet.

Or take the request for a bigger size of nappies, urgently needed because of our daughter's sudden weight spurt. A simple thing to sort, you might think. Not in the parallel universe of the NHS. It has taken four weeks, three phone calls, two home visits from community nurses to assess our needs and fill in the requisite forms – and still looks like being one more week before there is any hope of delivery. It may seem comical, but the result is a distressed child and endless extra laundry.

The warning signs of what lay ahead came on our first visit to Great Ormond Street, when there was a young couple who had travelled down from the north-east of England in front of us, their tiny sick baby almost lost in its blankets. "Didn't anyone tell you – your appointment's been cancelled?" the receptionist told them breezily. They looked at each other despairingly.

Such insensitivity is all too typical. When my daughter was seven she underwent a major review at a specialised unit in Surrey, spending three days and nights with sensors connected to brain-scanning devices glued to her head, under constant video surveillance while my exhausted wife comforted her and stopped her ripping off the electronic pads. A huge strain, but worth it given the hope of a breakthrough. When we went to get the results a few weeks later, there was the usual wait. After eventually summoning us, the neurologist asked why we were there. Then she opened our daughter's notes and asked what was wrong with her. Then she couldn't find the results. We stormed out, me in fury, my wife in tears.

There are countless other examples. The celebrated neurologist who measured our heads before blithely asserting that our daughter – suffering up to 30 fits a day – would just have a slightly lower IQ than the average person. The GP who gave her an MMR injection against our wishes, despite warnings it might prove fatal. The nurse who, having been told our daughter was blind, asked if she would like to watch a video. And that is to say nothing of the endless minor irritations: the over-crowded waiting rooms, the blasé receptionists, the unanswered emails, the blinkered attitudes to people with disabilities.

It used to be said money was the problem, but that fails to explain why American health outcomes are not drastically better, given their profligacy. Or indeed, why Scottish death rates from heart disease, cancer and strokes were so much worse when spending levels were one-fifth higher than in England; it cannot be blamed entirely on haggis suppers. And it is striking that for all the money poured in recently, there is little evidence of further improvement in cancer survival rates, for example, or of solving the postcode lottery.

There is no doubt that nearly tripling the health budget in a decade has led to visible advances, especially in the infrastructure. Some of the new hospitals are vast improvements on the crumbling Victorian buildings they replaced, and seemingly small things such as spruced-up waiting rooms and toys for children make a big difference.

Unfortunately, it is equally clear that billions have been wasted, poured into a centralised monopoly that focuses on the manipulation of a target culture rather than delivery and innovation. It was little surprise to learn that more managers than doctors were hired last year. And all too often these managers seem to reinforce rather than challenge the patronising attitudes that often predominate, while failing to tackle glaring waste.

One visit to the gastroenterology department of a major teaching hospital summed up many of the enduring problems. Like any hospital regulars, we booked the first appointment to ensure the wait would not be too long. The young consultant was courteous and empathetic, going out of his way to explain the pros and cons of the invasive surgery under discussion. At one point he needed to call a colleague, so picked up the receiver of an old phone on his desk rather than the high-tech device jutting out of his computer screen. He explained that the new system cost £3m but didn't work properly, so no one in the hospital bothered to use it.

After 10 minutes, we left his consulting room. The waiting area felt tense, with harassed parents, bored children, raised voices and too few seats. This unfortunate doctor had to see more than 50 patients during his two-and-a-half hour clinic – or one patient every three minutes, with no time for reading notes, let alone a break. And we had already ruined his schedule. No wonder people were getting exasperated.

These are, of course, just snapshots over more than a decade. We may have been desperately unlucky, and friends who have suffered heart problems, cycling accidents or had very premature babies will testify to flawless treatment. But then I know of other friends with equally terrible experiences of arrogant doctors, disinterested nurses, lost files and suchlike. I could tell you of the single mother in Scotland rung in the middle of the night and asked if she would like doctors to resuscitate her profoundly-disabled child – and then they did nothing until the mother reached the hospital and berated them. Or the parents of another child with a life-threatening tumour whose care was a litany of mistakes, but when they complained to the hospital's chief executive the notes went mysteriously missing. Or the elderly cancer patient constantly ignored by her doctors. And so on and so on.

For all the rhetoric, this is daily reality in our health service. This is not to denigrate the many fine workers, both on the frontline and behind the scenes. We have come across doctors, nurses, paramedics, therapists and many others who have been supportive, caring and inspirational. Some have gone way beyond the call of duty to help in times of distress or difficulty, such as our palliative care team and the community nurses. But equally, we have come across too many ground down by a sclerotic system that crushes out the idealism or caring nature that presumably made them join the health service.

Clearly there is systemic failure. And it is a question of management, not money. Some of the worst problems encountered have been at the hallowed Great Ormond Street Hospital for Sick Children, which uses the strength of its brand to suck up money and increase its reach. Many in the medical world are infuriated by its endless growth, but scared to take on the behemoth. But behind the soft-focus fund-raising and cuddly image lurks inefficiency and, all too often, needless insensitivity.

Indeed, should you feel moved to give money to help sick children, I would advise you to give to the children's hospice movement instead. As I write, my daughter is at Shooting Star in Hampton, Middlesex, a particularly deserving recipient. It is interesting to note that this sector, which derives a paltry five per cent of its income from statutory sources, does not seem bedevilled with the woes that afflicts so much of the public sector.

Anyone who has used health services in other Western nations knows that visiting the doctor or a hospital does not always have to be a frustrating experience. It is possible to run a health service around the needs of the patients, with appointments kept, notes read and consultations in a pleasant, friendly environment.

Given the swelling black hole in public finances, ageing population and rising costs of health care, Britain needs a serious debate about the future of the NHS. Sadly, the indications of the past fortnight are that we are too infantile to have such a discourse. A deranged Tory MEP became engulfed in the crossfire over Obama's reforms after some fatuous remarks in the US media, and back home – in a depressing foretaste of the election campaign – Labour uses it to smear the Conservatives, and panicked Tories rush to pay homage at the altar of Aneurin Bevan.

For all the supposed cost-effectiveness of the NHS, no other country has followed our model, despite what some Republicans might claim. Instead, we should be looking at what we can learn from abroad. No one in their right mind would want to import the American system here. But there are elements to admire: their popular community hospitals, the emphasis on effective diagnosis, even aspects of the much-derided compensation culture. And turning to Europe, there are systems that enshrine consumer choice, meld public and private systems, are cheaper than our own and have better health outcomes.

France is famous for its centralised approach to government. It also performs well on almost all health rankings, and has been top-ranked by the World Health Organisation. Its insurance-based scheme appears a chaotic blend of public and private partnership, but in reality is a sensible solution that blends the interests of patients with the need for some centralised direction, professional autonomy and safeguards for the poor. Like elsewhere in Europe, it has found a way that for all its faults harnesses the benefits of competition within a universal, patient-centred system. We are fumbling our way there, but it is one step forward and three back.

So what should be done here? I can only offer a few suggestions towards a wider debate.

Firstly, it seems obvious that any organisation employing 1.5 million people is going to struggle with the concept of dynamism. I suspect the Chinese People's Liberation Army and Indian Railways – two other similarly-sized employers – suffer from similar deficiencies.

Surely it makes sense to break up the monolith, thereby introducing genuinely competitive elements while retaining the principle of state-financed care that is free at the point of use. The more patient choice, the better the service will be. And trust me, patients can make highly-complex choices when it comes to their own health.

Secondly, the target culture should be made less proscriptive and the quality of managers raised. I don't mind managers, just bad managers.

Thirdly, these managers and all the medical staff should be given greater freedom to experiment and innovate. This means some failures, but it is vital in any giant organisation. And the Government provides a safety net.

Fourthly, there needs to be as much transparency as possible, covering everything from spending to surgical outcomes. This is the information age, after all – and it is our money and our health service.

Fifth, health workers must all realise they are meant to be serving the public. I wonder if medical schools should place greater emphasis on personal skills rather than just narrow academic criteria. And has the drive towards graduate nurses necessarily been a total boon for the care of patients? Finally, politicians should stop trying to micro-manage the NHS – and in return voters and, yes, the media should stop blaming them for everything that goes wrong.

Over the years, I have raised these issues with many politicians. I suggested to William Hague when he was Tory leader that he just tell the truth to the electorate and admit the NHS was a disaster zone. He laughed, and replied that he couldn't possibly say such a thing: "You're far too right-wing on health for us."

Later, I wrote an article for a weekly journal that ended with a challenge to the then Chancellor, Gordon Brown, at the time that Tony Blair and Alan Milburn were coming to terms with the need for root-and-branch reform. Unfortunately it was delayed a couple of weeks, coming out on the day of a group breakfast at Number 11. As I entered the dining room, Mr Brown gave me a wolfish smile and ushered me to sit down between him and Ed Balls, before the pair took me to task for the next half hour. Both seemed unabashed statists when it came to health, who saw more money as the answer to all problems and had little sympathy for the idea of introducing competitive or patient-led elements.

Likewise, David Cameron's experiences have turned him into a cheerleader for the NHS. He is angered by the failures of specialist education and shortfalls in respite provision, but was genuinely moved by the healthcare offered to his late son, as I know from many discussions with him. Days after becoming leader of his party we met for dinner. "I am not going to do what you want on the NHS," he said. "I will reform it if I get the chance, but I won't rip it apart."

Then there was the senior Labour Cabinet minister who told me about the nightmare he was enduring with his elderly relative. "I used to think you had been driven a bit nuts on the health service," he concluded. "Now I think you don't go far enough. It's awful. Absolutely bloody awful. We've got to do something about it."

I won't hold my breath.

Like the health secretary, I am an Everton fan. And like Andy Burnham, the national health service and Everton are among the most cherished institutions in my life. My daughter is still alive, for which I give thanks to the support, dedication and friendship of many in the health service. But it is precisely because I am such a fervent admirer that I believe it is so shameful that the NHS is allowed to limp on in its current state. For too many people, especially many of those most in need of its help, it is something of a disaster zone. The NHS is a sick institution, and cheap political point-scoring will do nothing to solve the problems. We need to find a cure.

i.birrell@independent.co.uk
 
good to see that denny crane is reading the independent. nevertheless, beefing about ones healthcare system occurs around the world and particularly in your country. and the tragedy in your country is that 47 million ppl have no clue about the merits of your system because they cant afford it.

just to sidetrack the debate a little bit here- i was reading an article which reported that 41 million americans take metaphorim (which is the drug used to combat diabetes) and 6 million more americans dont even know they have diabetes. to put that in perspective- the 47 million american diabetics is nearly the entire population of canada and australia combined. many of these cases are easily preventable- where were your doctors? and when the idea of sin taxes on soft drinks were discussed recently- the conservatives tried to subvert the tax.
 
thats why americans live longer than canadians, oh no, its the other way around. canada ranks 6th in life expectancy while america ranks a pathetic 35 edging out the ppl of albania.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_life_expectancy

I'd invite you to read "The Business of Health" by Robert Ohsfeldt & John E. Schneider. When you remove things that are not health care related (e.g., homicides, traffic accidents, etc.) the US goes to first in the world in terms of life expectancy. Our life expectancy is dragged down by the fact we have so many more murders than other developed countries and because we have more cars, we have more fatal accidents.
 
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