Don't understand "too old". MJ - 21 when he was drafted. Pretty much every other legend around that time was older, as well.
These days (say, the last decade), MOST players with all-star ability are identified as such within a year or two of entering college. Four-year players tend to have lower career arcs (exceptions like Roy and Wade notwithstanding).
I said kind of old, not too old ... and MJ at 21 was far, far more of an elite prospect. Yes, he was closer to his ceiling at 21 than when he was 19, but that was considerably higher than Lilliard's at 21.
Nice read on Lillard. Hot off the presses: http://www.cbssports.com/collegebas...ick-lillard-most-unlikely-story-of-2012-draft
Just out of curiosity, anyone with espn insider know what grad Chad Ford gave Portland? I'd give a B.
PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS | GRADE: B+ Round 1: Damian Lillard (6), Meyers Leonard (11) Round 2: Will Barton (40) Analysis: I have been Lillard's biggest fan all year and think he's a great fit in Portland. They really needed a point guard, and I think with time he could be very good. He shoots the ball well, attacks the basket and plays very hard. He'll need to continue to develop his floor vision, but his work ethic is tremendous, and I think he'll find a way to succeed. I'm not as crazy about Leonard. I see the upside, and I see the need. But I think he's a bigger project than people think. I wouldn't expect dividends on this pick for several years, Blazers fans. Barton was a nice get in the second round. He has a great midrange game, is a good athlete and has a scorer's mentality. I wouldn't be surprised if, in a few years, he supplanted Wes Matthews as the starting 2-guard in Portland.
Brandon Roy esque personality. PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS | GRADE: A+ http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/writers/sam_amick/06/29/nba-draft-grades/index.html
The only problem is that it's not a rule. It's a misconception. There are too many 21+ guys that get better and too many under 21 guys that don't get better for it to be a rule.
many do but for a PG to actually get some extra time to mature I think is fine, especially as he seems somewhat of a late bloomer. There are very few Roses that can come in and be so successful so soon, most PG's take time, I think Lilard has a good head start on most PG's comin out of college after one or two years. He's still only 22 and has good athletic ability and is already an excellent shooter.
Wow. His workout/interview must have been absolutely terrible. Or management felt that he was identical to Thabeet in every possible way, and thus, after a half-season of Thabeet, realized not to go down that path.
Maybe we're disagreeing on what is meant by, "as a rule?" That phrase isn't iron-clad, it just means younger guys typically have more headroom.
The thing is, it's a trend, not a rule. Trends are useful for averages, typical situations, etc. An individual player has no reason to fit that mold, however, so the trend is just one small piece of the puzzle. Plenty of players have come into the league at ~22 and had lots of improvement left in them He'll just be hitting his probably peak years at the end of his rookie deal.
Conventional wisdom a month before the draft was that the top 6 picks of the draft were well known. I think GMs figured out that that conventional wisdom was wrong. This has happened many times before.
I feel like I'm taking crazy pills sometimes ... the phrase, "as a rule" is an idiom, it's doesn't literally mean an unbreakable law of nature, it's common language used to describe the very thing you are talking about -- trends and tendencies.
As a rule is just too strong of a phrase for this trend. Nobody implied they think it means it's an unreadable law of nature. It just makes it seem like its extremely unlikely, which I think is incorrect.
The Hickory-High system closest comparison to our draftees: Damian Lillard: Steph Curry Meyers Leonard: Taj Gibson Will Barton: Wesley Johnson A 7'1" Taj Gibson would be an absolute monster.
Blazers draft article from rip city project. http://ripcityproject.com/2012/06/3...rs/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
