Exclusive All things Amen Thompson

Oh ha I thought I was the only one who had Ausar at #4. That’s funny.

 

Obviously you don't know me, but I completely recreated my shot when I was 19-20. I'd had a 8" growth spurt when I was 17 and finally had the power to shoot it with more normal mechanics with a dominant side rather then both hands. Even with bad mechanics I could make some shots, but with improved form I eventually got a lot better. I'd had a toe injury playing soccer my Freshman year and couldn't run for a while and used that down time to work on it. By my Sophomore year at UO I was one of the best players in the Bean court runs with 3 point shooting off the dribble as my main weapon. I absolutely know it can be done.

STOMP

 

If I were a GM, I'm not drafting Scoot so:

1. Wemby
2. Amen
3. Whitmore
4. Miller
5. Ausar

2-5 are all pretty close. I even considered Ausar over Amen at one point. Haven't really gone super deep into the analytics yet though. I flop between Miller and Whitmore daily it seems.

Objectively Scoot, talent-wise, does belong in the top 5 though. I'd just trade him to the highest bidder.

I don't see either of those trades happening but I'd probably want 4th since we could probably land Amen there. Duren + Whitmore wouldn't be a bad consolation though. Pretty tough.

 

Ausar actually looks to have the better handle. No matter how athletic you think Ausar is, Amen is a clear notch above him, and can potentially run your offense. Ausar is the superior player right now though.

 

Thanks for all your reply's.
I guess I look at the comparison between Scoot & Amen a bit differently. I totally see the tantalizing ceiling of Amen, but I'm not confident that he gets there. Scoot may have a slightly lower ceiling, but his floor is much higher.
A couple of you also mentioned that Amen is on a different level athletically... Again, I don't see that. He has more explosion than Ausar, but I'd rate Scoot's athleticism on par or just ahead of Amen.

Also, I really think Miller is being under-rated here. He compares very favorably to a lot of very good NBA players -> Here is a snap shot comparing him to Tatum/Brown/Jabari Smith Jr/Franz Wagner: https://tankathon.com/players/compa...own--jayson-tatum--franz-wagner--jabari-smith

If I were to rank the top 5 and give each a grade (0-100), with 0 being out of the league before the rookie contract expires and 100 being a recurring first team all NBA player - here is how I'd rank them with their floors, ceilings, and most likely outcomes:

Wemby: Likely 90 (ceiling 100 / floor 50)

Miller: Likely 85 (ceiling 90 / floor 50)

Scoot: Likely 80 (ceiling 95 / floor 50)

Ausar: Likely 75 (ceiling 90 / floor 25) - I trust his shot & defense more than Amen's...
Amen: Likely 70 (ceiling 95 / floor 25)
Wallace: Likely 70 (ceiling 85 / floor 50) - I think he's one of the most under-rated prospects in this draft.
Hendricks: Likely 70 (ceiling 85 / floor 40)


So my next question is what is it about Miller that I am overlooking that has each of you rating him lower?

 

There's some draft experts who rate him lower as well. It's possible that it has to do with his ceiling.

 

He looks like a taller version of Anfernee Simons with real PG instinct and can defend

 

I would not expect Amen to ever be good at shooting, but this is what is possible if you don't have a jump shot if you are excellent at attacking the hoop, passing, and defense.

• 3× NBA All-Star (2019–2021)
• All-NBA Third Team (2020)
• 2× NBA All-Defensive First Team (2020, 2021)
• NBA Rookie of the Year (2018)
• NBA All-Rookie First Team (2018)
• NBA steals leader (2020)
• Consensus first-team All-American (2016)
• USBWA National Freshman of the Year (2016)
• First-team All-SEC (2016)
• SEC Freshman of the Year (2016)
• Mr. Basketball USA (2015)
• Gatorade National Player of the Year (2015)
• Naismith Prep Player of the Year (2015)
• Morgan Wootten National Player of the Year (2015)
• McDonald's All-American (2015)
• First-team Parade All-American (2015)

 

I don't know if Simmons is really a good comparison, if you're trying to convince people that Amen is a good pick. Simmons has proven to be a liability in the playoffs, even before he melted down. In the modern NBA, you have to be able to shoot. It's a critical skill, and it's one that concerns people about Scoot as well.

 

"He's practically a non shooter."

 

I don't know about overlooking, but I'll give my personal reasons on why I'm a bit lower than consensus...

Down on his ability to become a high level self creating scorer and shooter, especially vs size and high level athletes.

Doesn't separate consistently and I think his form lacks versatility. Normally with a guy this size, I wouldn't be that worried about the burst but I don't think his strength and form translate into being a great "gets to his spots" scorer (main reason why I can't buy the BI or Tatum comps). Low release and only really comfortable shooting with forward momentum. Really quick getting into his shot but most of his shooting success came off open spot ups, pick and pops or unders on pnr's and handoffs. Showed some ability to shoot with someone on his hip, but normally was against a guy without real NBA wing size. I'm not as worried about the finishing issues, but it's safe to say he won't be high level there either.

Struggles to defend on the ball and navigate screens. Not the quickest feet and can't get low. Most guys this size have this issue but I think it stands out a little more with him. Would be more ok with it if I believed more in his off ball defense. He's just fine here imo. Has the size and length to make some plays. Can make some plays at the rim, has some nice chase down blocks and is a solid rebounder. His activity and awareness don't jump out to me though and I think overall he just limits your defense you're able to get on the floor if you're not comfortable having him guard perimeter players.

I still like him quite a bit. Not many guys his size are as smooth with the ball as he is. He can separate at times with good hesitation moves and body feints. Also think he uses his body pretty well to protect from guys getting into his handle. Pretty damn good vertical athlete. I like the passing he showed. Looked comfortable setting up the roll man with good touch and different deliveries. Has the size to see over defenses and make skip passes, even smooth off hand skips. I could Ingram level playmaking progression with him. Shooting is very likely great but needs right cicumstances.

So ultimately, to me he projects as more of an off ball scoring forward (lean 4/3) with defensive versatility and advantage creation issues. That makes me question taking him to 4-5, even with his obvious positives.

 

The passing is awesome, but it's a make or miss league. I haven't seen any highlights showing his shot. That's a red flag. Is it that busted? Not good at all. Maybe he can become a reliable shooter with training, but that could be years away. If he could shoot, he'd be a franchise player. Naw, pass. Makes me think this draft isn't that great if he's this high. As far as Amen goes, teams are gonna blanket the real shooters on any team he plays for. He's gonna have to make outside shots.

 

Not by everyone including me. While I've argued Amen could rework his shot, he probably won't and shooting will likely remain a glaring weakness. Ausar is thought to be the superior defender, better shooter (definitely better mechanics) and plays well off the ball, which is actually a really good quality especially when paired with ball dominant guards like Portland has. I'd love to see him in Red and Black.

STOMP

 

This is exactly how I feel and I think it may pan out this way. This draft is fortunate for Portland. It's going to get a star, either way, but to get the best star outside Wemby? I've watched enough prospects to know what works and doesn't work. Certain archetypes enter the league and they're made for it.

The All-Star shooting guard, for example. Quick (but not necessarily fast) and athletic first step, good vertical, all around game - can create own shot, has some ball handling, playmaking capability, offensively versatile due to a variety of moves.....turns out that simply works in any era. They often get passed over for #1 due to their games not being so...obvious to GMs. They excel at most things but they don't excel at the one pure thing (most scouts and GMs just wanting that pure scoring, pure passing, or that pure dominance when an all around guy with shot creation and ball handling might be better overall). And I knew Sharpe had this potential from Day 1 since that describes his archetype.

Otherwise, it's similar for all-around two way wings, as well. Hence, Paul George, Jimmy Butler, or Brandon Ingram gets passed on.

And Amen is close to that. He only lacks a jumper. Supposedly, his mechanics have improved and they've sent footage to front offices, who are impressed, but let's assume it doesn't and he stays relatively the same. When you can move around like that, pass, rebound, defend, and attack the rim...you're going to effective, either way. All he needs is a passable 3pt shot like his brother or like Giannis (both in the 30% zone) and he'll be difficult to stop.

I compare the twins to Giannis-lite or Grant Hill-lite (I suppose a more aggressive Batum or early Ben Simmons may be a comparison early on) and I think their primes will be closer to the full thing rather than being 'lite' versions. Maybe 22-23ppg/7/7 type players with top POA defense and high field goal percentage. In which case, I think that compliments Sharpe's game more than Scoot, which would mean the Blazers lose a three point shooter at the PG position once he takes over for Dame or Simons, and Miller, who will be passive and not attack the rim as much as he could.

With Amen, I think you'd get a player who can open up the floor or take advantage of an open floor for Dame/Ant and Sharpe but also facilitate.

The way I see it, long term, it probably goes:

Wemby

Amen
Ausar
Scoot

Miller


And imo, Walker may even be #2 or 3, in a redraft, if he figures out his offense. Walker has DPOY potential but he also has the tools to handle the ball, create his own shot, make plays, and hit open jumpers....that is more like the complete all-around wing than any other player here. If not, he's Aaron Gordon but bigger and better at defense.

I've stated this before but if the Magic were open to Simons for #6. That could mean Walker. Maybe Blazers trade #3 for #4 and #20, as well, for Amen, so Rockets could get Scoot.

Dame+Sharpe+Amen+Grant (Walker would learn off the bench). Get Leonard Miller (Christian Wood/Lamar Odom type player) and get Zach Edey (highest college PER ever) so the Spurs don't develop him into a monster alongside Wemby.

If Blazers get Scoot, could mean Walker is useful for versatile defense and 3pt shot, which would help Sharpe and Scoot.

Dame/Scoot-Sharpe-Walker-Grant (L. Miller off bench)-Edey

 

I prefer Ausar over Amen. Amen looks like one of the better athletes in many years, but that shot is bad...unfixable. Starting over on mechanics at his age is not something I would feel good about. Which is why I would rather pick Ausar. His shot isn't broke and has the chance to become pretty good with maturity and repetition.
I could see Ausar ending up having a similar role as a young Pippen. Note that I didn't say "as good as". Similar in that Ausar could run the point very effectively, guard 1-3 and some PF's, not a great shooter but one you have to respect, similar length and build, has the competitive attitude, crafty with the ball especially in the open court, good distributor.
I think eventually, Ausar could become a very good starting PG and be one of the biggest matchup nightmares in the league.

 

I'd disagree that his shot isn't fixable. Lonzo fixed his atrocious form eventually.

But I get what you're saying. Throughout the season, I was going back and forth between which twin I like more. I also didn't think that Portland would ever be in a position to land Amen, so it's good to have a choice. In a world where we are pick #6 or #7, I'd be completely happy with drafting Ausar. I have trust in our scouting team, if Ausar was the guy the Blazers were keen on, it just means we traded down with a team like ORL and got draft assets back.

I'm not mad at that outcome either. Ausar is more NBA ready, and we've seen teams like BOS succeed with two dominant wings and no great PG.