OFFICIAL AROUND THE NBA: NOVEMBER 2023

Gordon Hayward is in a mega-slump. PJ Washington had his worse game as a pro. The Hornets are so messed up, that wife beating Bridges guy is currently their most efficient player.

 

Shit I didn’t even realize Hayward was still in the league!

 

This is pretty bad though.

 

Nice to FINALLY see a potential exception to the rule

 

It's weird how many people have written him off. I looked at his stats a couple days ago, and other than FT%, he's averaging better than his career numbers in every category.

Granted, his career averages are affected by being injured so often, but that seems to be the part mostly affecting perception, not his actual play this year.

 

One of them plays out on the perimeter constantly. And yet….. tons of fouls. Maybe because of the usual superstar bias?

 

59% of Embiid's shots are assisted; 71% of Ayton's shots are assisted. Meaning that Embiid goes iso more often and going iso has always been a more reliable method of fishing for whistles

sure, there could be some superstar bias at work, but I don't think it explains the discrepancy. But that also cuts two ways; teams fear Embiid a lot more than they fear Ayton, so Embiid will draw tighter, more intense defense and a hell of a lot more doubles and traps. That creates FT's.

another reason I don't really buy the superstar excuse is looking at their career FT rates:

Embiid:

2016-17 .569
2017-18 .442
2018-19 .541
2019-20 .543
2020-21 .610
2021-22 .602
2022-23 .581
2023-24 .510

Ayton:

2018-19 .217
2019-20 .157
2020-21 .252
2021-22 .204
2022-23 .225
2023-24 .055

Embiid simply came into the league much better equipped to get to the FT line. He wasn't a superstar as a rookie. In a fashion this kind of reminds me of the Dame vs CJ comparison. They both penetrate and get to the paint and rim. But CJ danced around the edges of the paint, a lot. While Dame aggressively attacked the rim. CJ avoided contact, Dame did not and actually worked to find the best spots to bait his hook for the whistle-fish. The result is that Dame has a career FTA/100-possessions mark of 8.9 (13.6 this season) and a FT rate of .349 (.580 this season). CJ has career marks of 4.2 and .166

I see the same tendencies at work with Ayton I saw with CJ. That being that Ayton consistently avoids contact. He settles for spin-moves, fade-aways, and open jumpers instead of aggressively attacking the rim

that's not necessarily bad. Ayton is shooting .603 on two's; Embiid .540. And Ayton has an eFG of .598 while Embiid is at .530. Ayton is more efficient in terms of conversion rates on shots. And even accounting for FT's, Ayton has a TS% advantage over Embiid .620 vs .618. So, even though he settles for low contact shots that don't draw a lot of fouls, the big advantage he has in raw FG% translates to slightly better efficiency metrics....except in one critical area: Ayton averages 1.17 points/shot; Embiid averages 1.51. That adds up

still, while it would be helpful if Ayton drew more fouls and shot more FT's, I don't think that's a big factor in the Ayton equation. I don't believe he'll be an all-star level C but the Blazers don't really need that from him. They need him to rebound, patrol the paint defensively, and be a lower-usage mid-range outlet on offense. He's getting there and so far, seems to have a great attitude

 

I guess I’m missing the joke here?

 

there's a matinee game on. 76ers @ Nets.
early start to basketball today

 

His situation helps but he's shooting 54/44/90 splits. That's crazy numbers.

 

I promise you, his roster is NOT the main reason he’s averaging those numbers. The roster matters, but how many guys can you just plop onto that OKC roster as a rookie and do what Chet is doing right now?

 

The Pistons were supposed to be much-improved from last season when Cade Cunningham was injured.

They still suck with Cunningham, Thompson and Ivey all healthy.

I bet Monty Williams would love to have a veteran backup PG like Brogdon.

 

What could we even get from them though? I don’t particularly like any of their pieces. The only guy I would want (Duren) is untouchable. They have a pick obligation until ‘27.

Stewart, filler, and multiple 2nds for Brogdon would be okay if you loved Stewart. But I think we can get a 1st+ for Brogdon.

 

I am not sure why they would want him when they are 2-11. I would think only a contender would want him.

 

first 3 games today are blowouts. Garbage time guys getting a weekend workout

 

Detroit is just awful. It really goes to show how a couple of whiffs on some lotto picks can drastically change the direction of the team.

Hayes (#5) is still terrible, Maxey and Haliburton are both star level guards.
Cade (#1) was the right pick but is really 4-5 seasons from leaving if they don’t figure it out soon.
Ivey (#5) remains to be seen, but obviously Shae would’ve changed the trajectory of the Pistons.
Duren (#13) was a great pick.
Ausar (#5) was a great pick.

But man…those Hayes and potentially Ivey picks are really haunting them.