Sarr hasn't done enough to separate himself from any of these other guys that are being talked about as the potential No. 1 pick in 2024. When there's no separation, teams will put a little more weight on current roster composition and area of need than just the best player available, which is who high lottery teams usually should pick.
https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/in...ck-draft-why-isaiah-collier-new-no-1-prospect FIRST ROUND 1. San Antonio Spurs Isaiah Collier | USC | PG | Age: 18.9 2. Detroit Pistons Alex Sarr | Perth Wildcats | PF/C | Age: 18.4 3. Portland Trail Blazers Zaccharie Risacher | JL Bourg | SF | Age: 18.4 4. Washington Wizards Ja'Kobe Walter | Baylor | SG | Age: 18.7 5. Charlotte Hornets Ron Holland | G League Ignite | SF | Age: 18.2 6. Chicago Bulls Donovan Clingan | UConn | C | Age: 19.5 7. Memphis Grizzlies Matas Buzelis | G League Ignite | SF | Age: 18.9 8. Utah Jazz Nikola Topic | Mega MIS | PG | Age: 18.1 9. Oklahoma City Thunder (via Houston) Stephon Castle | UConn | PG/SG | Age: 18.9 10. San Antonio Spurs (via Toronto) Justin Edwards | Kentucky | SG/SF | Age: 19.7
Not really. Other than Sarr, I'm pretty low on every other frontcourt player I've seen to the point where I don't think you can take Collier out of the top 5. I think the Blazers have to give themselves the best chance at having a true, game-changing superstar (Top 10 player) and that might mean taking Collier over a better fit. I know it becomes extremely messy with the guards we already have. I don't know what the solution is. Holland and Buzelis haven't impressed me. And G-League Ignite guys haven't lived up to their draft stock (but it might be too early to make that conclusion).
Biggest differentiating factor for me with guys in this draft where theres not much seperation will be processing speed, good movement patterns and a high enough skill base. (Haliburton and Maxey are two guys that were steals where they were drafted that I had higher than they were drafted based in these areas). From the little I've seen of him, Cody Williams seems to fit this mold just like his brother did.
I really like Cody Williams with the Golden State pick, even if it's late lottery. I'll be keeping my eye on him this season.
Personally, Sarr not separating does a lot in helping us land him. Spurs and Pistons both seem like teams who should just stay away from Sarr unless they’re confident in Sarr’s ability to shoot the ball. Spending this pick on Sarr could really waste a year of Wemby and Cade’s development. Cade is already struggling with the lack of spacing, and the clogged lanes just highlight his inability to get separation. I’m not going to name a reason for why every team besides us could stay away from Sarr, but I think a lot of teams will prioritize a guard over a big. Houston ended up picking Green over Mobley, which is still a baffling choice to me. Mobley was always the better prospect between he and Sarr, so anything can happen in this draft.
That makes a lot of sense, and I get where you’re coming from. If we’re going to disregard Sarr, the guy at the top I’d be interested in most is Castle. He’s only played two games so it’s a small sample size, but I’ve loved seeing him kind of be able to do everything. Out of the Daniels-Black-mold big PG/SGs that have come out in recent years, Castle looks like he could be the best one to me. I’ve been really impressed with his passing ability and nose for the ball on the boards. 7oreb vs 6dreb in two games is really impressive to me, I think that the presence of both Sharpe and Castle in a lineup will mean even more second chance opportunities than we have now. Even though Castle is being touted as a PG/SG, I can see Castle becoming a Jimmy Butler kind of player. I don’t know if Castle will ever fill out to be a solid 230lb like Butler, but I think he can be a better version of Jimmy on offense and still hold up well on defense if he gets stronger. I was impressed with Cody vs FSU (especially handling the ball in OT) even though he had the 5to’s. You’d hope he shoots the ball more so we are know for sure of his shooting ability, but his jumper doesn’t look bad. The 7’2 wingspan is obviously intriguing. He immediately becomes more interesting if he can be a legit small ball 5, which I think he can become. He, Walker, and Camara are all around the same size, and I would really like the different blend of skills.
You're not wrong. If you think Collier is a special player and separates himself on your board over these other guys, then, yes, in spite of fit, you either take Collier and work out the details later or trade down and add assets either in a young player or an additional pick in a future draft. My opinion is if the draft were today Collier isn't at that point. There isn't enough separation in ability/potential, and, in that case, you draft the forward that might be slightly lower on your board because you have an dramatically increased opportunity to impact the team at that position which negates the risk/reward considerations. Like you, I almost always will draft superior talent if there's a gap and work out the other details later.
I have that same feeling on Collier. I’m not actually convinced Collier will be a better player than Scoot. Castle remains as that guy at the top that I love, despite the small sample size. I don’t think I would trade out of that pick unless both Sarr and Castle are gone. I’ve said Topic wouldn’t be a good fit on this team, but I might also consider him before trading out. He has a feel for the game with his passing that I saw from Luka, and if we’re going to gamble on a guy, he could be that guy outside of Sarr and Castle. (I am thinking we can draft Buzelis with the Warrior pick outright, or trade up slightly from that point to grab him. Just a gut feeling that he’ll fall.) Since we have the Warriors 1st and Hornets 2nd, I would probably be fine trading out of that pick and trade that pick into a ‘25 or ‘26 1st, if some of the guys of the top are gone.
I’m starting to cool on Risacher, mainly because I haven’t seen enough tape to suggest he’ll become a star, and I’m starting to not feel right about having him up there cause he’s a comparable talent to Buzelis. I’d probably trade down for Castle or even draft him outside at that spot. In a world where every team’s leadership is smart though, the Blazers would be picking Sarr, and the Pistons would be picking Walter or Castle. They can’t keep trying to churn these athletic freaks at C at the expense of putting the right guards and wings around Cade. On the Pistons, I can see a guy like Walter start at SG right away, simply because of his ability to at least space the floor for Cade and Ausar. I don’t even think the Pistons can afford to gamble on Topic’s upside, seeing as Cade is going to be entering year 4 and is the main decision maker.
I did some real real light research on Dunn. The physical profile is impressive, as is the defense. The 3pt shooting has me really pausing on him. I hear about the Herb Jones-esque defense, but eventually, piling non-shooters on this team becomes a problem. Low apg numbers suggest he is a great defender suggest that he can be depended on for his defense right now, and nothing else. He will turn 21yo before the draft. I actually just learned of a new player that is in the mold of Dunn. Dailyn Swain - SF, Xavier - 18.92 on draft day (almost a full month after being drafted) - Listed 6’8. I’m guessing he’ll be between 6’7-6’8 at the combine - Probably around 10lb lighter than Dunn and around the same wingspan, but he’s almost 2 years younger So far (7 games): 6.0/2.6/1.7/0.6/1.8 on .469/.300/.750 (20.7mpg) The guy is so young. He doesn’t start at all. He is coming off the bench and playing very low minutes, and producing very well. I’m very encouraged about 1.7apg on such low usage. Averaging 0.9to’s per game, so nearly 2-1 ast/to ratio. His shot isn’t broken, but is a work in progress. He just isn’t a good shooter yet. 7/12 on fts so fair suggests he can become one eventually. My notes on him: - He obviously isn’t as good as Dunn on defense right now. BUT, Swain is averaging 3 steals and 1.4 blocks per 40mins, so it’s not like he’s a slouch. - Just on age difference alone, Swain is the much more interesting prospect. Dunn is born 1/7/03, and Swain is born 7/15/05, so Swain is around 2.5y’s younger than Dunn. Even physically, Swain could still grow a little bit more - Overall, I think Swain has shown he more things (on paper, just looking at the statsheet) well than Dunn. Even if Swain is twice the defender Camara is, he’s ultimately just a Camara duplicate if he came here. Swain would provide a slightly different skillset than Camara and Walker, he has potential to become a shooter, but also be a forward who can move the ball and make the right reads and decisions. - If Swain showed more as a shooter or a scorer, he would be a guaranteed lotto pick. I’ve seen/heard some rumblings that he might return to school after this season. People are excited about him, some think he will be a lotto pick in ‘25 if he returns to school. In a draft with a suspect talent pool, I’m scouting this guy HARD the rest of the season. We have that Warriors pick that will be decent (we all hope)—he’s jumped up on my board drastically.
There isn’t much tape on Dailyn Swain unfortunately. The most recent clip I could find is from 2 weeks ago. I never get much from high school highlights. I don’t like sifting through endless dunking clips to see everything else. I saw a little bit of his ability to handle/shoot/make plays, which was good enough for me. I don’t have that many players on the board right now that I’d be excited about the prospects of drafting (Sarr, Castle, Buzelis, Williams). Swain has jumped to #4 on my big board between Buzelis and Williams. A big tournament could easily put him in the top 10 imo, if they make it. They had a string of appearances in the ‘10s and have only made it once in the ‘20s. Personally, it actually benefits us for him to not get enough exposure (like Hendricks last year), but it’s hard to not wish these guys the endless opportunities to showcase their talents. I like Swain more than Klintman and any of these other wings in the draft not named Buzelis. Regarding a big, I think there’s going to be one that clips to the Hornets pick, due to the amount of good bigs in this class. Koloko was a 2nd rounder a few years ago, who I really liked, so big chance a big that we like falls to us.
If Sarr isn’t available to us, I really can’t think of a better draft that drafting Cody Williams, Dailyn Swain, and a big with the Hornets 2nd. Obviously, if Swain doesn’t peak to the top of the board, we can trade down for him. Guaranteeing a pair of forwards like Swain and Williams would be HUGE for us, and I’d be very excited about our forwards for the future.
Based on what I’ve seen so far, Cody Williams and Dailyn Swain would be my favorite forward pair. If we don’t land Sarr, Swain/Williams + a big would be the closest thing to a consolation prize, to me. Walker Camara (already starter) Williams Swain (might not see meaningful minutes til year 2/3) Murray Rupert That’s a great mix of forwards. Among the top four, I am pretty confident that they’ll all be impactful defenders. Williams is getting a rep for not being great on that side, but so did Jalen, right (I could be wrong)? Camara is currently starting despite being a bad shooter. But among the four, I think two or more can become good shooters. I was never high on Kris, and Rupert is still very raw, but either of them can still develop well.
Can you say with certainty that you don’t think Dailyn Swain can become as good, if not better than Dunn, in a couple seasons? They’re comparable players, but I think Swain will eventually do more than just defend, has a more promising shot, and is 2.5 years younger.
Updated thoughts on Justin Edwards: I completely wrote him off as a lotto pick that I kind of ignored him after a not-very-deep deep-dive on him. After watching some more clips, I can totally see the intrigue in this guy. Prototypical lanky 6’8 guy with a 6’11 wingspan, and looks like he’ll be a better SG/SF than SF/PF. That kind of bodes well for him because 6’8 in shoes is a mega-sized SG. I don’t see a top lotto pick in him. I don’t see a guy who will ever carry a team. I see someone who lacks assertiveness for a top pick and has zero playmaking ability so far. Those all sound like a combination of a lotto bust (Cam Reddish vibes). But I do see someone who can play within a system. I see someone who doesn’t just chuck up shots (unlike Reddish). He’s big enough and athletic enough to guard most wings. I’m going to be paying attention to his defense this season. His shooting hasn’t been good, but I expect that to tick up, I think he’s historically been viewed as a good shooter. Edwards may have just gotten his grade due to being in a lower tier HS class. His play and personality sound like a complimentary player (maybe even complimentary star in the right situation?) to me. As a senior, he averaged just under 18ppg. I haven’t watched much of his HS tape, but I’ll get around to it. It’s going to come down to where his range falls. 1-14, not interested. 15-25, ehh, there’s going to be a lot of big men here. 25 and beyond is where you would have to consider drafting him if 1) you are convinced in his shooting 2) he shows he can just play a complimentary role rather than a scorer-type like he was seen as in HS 3) he shows that he can be a really good defende 4) you are convinced that his HS highlights show everything he’s capable of, and part of any struggles is due to playing at Kentucky and not getting to shine If he was on the border of slipping out of the 1st, I love to draft him. If Edwards found a niche in the league as a 3-D guy first, it will give him the opportunity to develop the rest of the scoring arsenal later, it’ll just be all about playing well enough to get a second contract. Being drafted to the wrong situation could also be the reason he has trouble staying in the league.
