If the Kings win this, I think they’ll likely boot NOLA if Zion is out. That would put our pick one spot higher.
Yeah the Warriors have a nice small ball club but a legit big on their bench would be a difference maker. As far as the bird goes… the bird I was referring to was a lotto pick or near lotto because there is no guarantee that the Warriors will have this bad of a record next year. Thinking that they will have a worse record is very much like figuring on securing the two birds in the bush.
According to most everyone who evaluates drafts, this is the worst one in top talent and depth in a decade plus. A 20th pick in better draft class can be much more valuable then the 12th in a worse one. Portland is getting a #1 from them (a single bird) sooner or later. While it's unlikely the Warriors have the exact same record next year, their fate is hitched to a 36/37 year old Steph Curry and other aging talent. The wheels are more and more likely to fall off and them totally sucking in a year where the draft talent is universally thought to be much better then this year. That potential W's drop off + a better thought of draft class talent = easy choice STOMP
Could possibly be #12 if ATL or CHI makes the playoffs. Or possibly down to #14 if SAC losses at NOP.
Not to mention that the GSW have not been overly competitive the last 4 years. They've had the #2, #14, #27, #18 and now the #13 picks. It is a gamble, but that franchise is trending down
Unless Sacramento beats New Orleans and makes the playoffs. The Pelicans are 3 games better than the Warriors, so there wouldn't need to be a coin flip.
Anyone know when the coin flips happen? If Miami or Sacramento miss the playoffs there could be 2 that impact this GS pick. If Philly and New Orleans make the playoffs the pick would be slotted at 12. Lottery could either have the pick roll to next year (which I'm growing more fond of) or slide back if the pick 13/14 team jumps GS. It cannot jump to 5-11. Most likely it would stay put. Blazers own pick is also dependent on coin flip with Charlotte for 3 vs 4.
Strangely wonder if the Warriors get top4 it could push them to not rebuild where they may consider it more if the pick debt is paid off to us. This team just spent 400 million on payroll and missed the playoffs. Might prefer to pocket cash from Klay/CP3 walking and rebuild with Steph like Lakers did with Kobe. If they own their own 2025 pick that's a way better strategy. If we get the pick 2-30 conversely there is nearly zero tank incentive.
maybe if they just cut CP3 they'll have about 30M in margin under the projected tax line (about 174M). No cap space, but some maneuvering room. I'd imagine there will be some momentum in giving Klay a 'reward for service' contract of 7-10M; probably a 1-year deal. But I could also see them being tempted (assuming the high probability the Blazers keep their pick this draft) to just tear it all apart. They may already be quietly shopping Wiggins and Green (I think they are fed up with Green and he is 34). If they do that they'd have a good shot at tanking into the 2025 draft. If I was to lay odds, I might bet that at least one of Wiggins/Green will be traded. I wouldn't bet much though if the Warriors have a high pick in 2025 plus the 21 year old trio of Kuminga-Moody-Podziemski, they have a pretty decent start at some long-term upside
well, if it's a 'choice' between having the 12th or 13th pick, Blazers should want 13th: View attachment 64462 ********************************************************************** there is also the top-4 protected factor: if the pick is 12th, there's a 7.2% chance it's a top-4 pick and the Warriors keep it. If it's 13th, it drops to a 4.7% chance
I'd rather the Warriors win the lottery with a top-4 pick in 2024. The 2025 pick is only top 1 protected. So for me the 12th pick is better whether the Blazers keep it or not.
