With the 14th pick in the 2024 NBA Draft, The Portland Trailblazers select. . .

I know this is much harder to pin down than the 7th pick, but no less interesting. At first it looked like we'd be reaching by taking Salaun here, now he might not make it to #7. I see Tristan da Silva mocked here a fair amount, and I guess I'd be okay with that, but I think we can do better.
Here are the two players I want us to be picking between:
Jared McCain. Yes, he's a short two-guard. Yes, he's being compared to Seth Curry. But (a) Seth Curry was CONSISTENTLY our top plus/minus guy when we had him, and (b) Seth Curry at #14 in THIS draft is probably a steal. I mean, look at most of the first round from the LAST draft, which was supposed to be much better than this one, and they're doing nothing. But (c) this guy is supposed to be off-the-charts on intangibles (tough, hugely competitive, but also plays with a real joy (something you're not going to hear about people like Shae or Anfernee), and (d) he can score at the rim as well as shoot the shit out of the ball. He's got genuine star potential - if he was two inches taller he'd be picked in the top 6.
Nikola Topic. Major problems: (1) the knee. Dear God, we're Portland - why would we draft somebody who's ALREADY got a bad knee. (2) short arms. (3) can't shoot.
I don't give a shit. The knee is just an injury - apparently the medical came back fine.
Short arms? Again, who cares? Kevin Willis could barely reach his navel but if it wasn't for Rodman he would have led the league in rebounding for years. And the Lakers' new coach carved out a very solid NBA career with even shorter arms. I don't see it as that much of a problem given that he's a 6'6" point guard.
The shooting is a problem. But I think it can be fixed, because he's a very good FT shooter.
Just watch some video on this guy. He's electric. He can get to the basket and finish (or throw some amazing pass) on anyone. (Just thought of a Euro he reminds me of: Sarunas Marciulonis.) And he's doing this on a REAL pro team. At age 18. He may be the biggest Euro prodigy since Luka.

I firmly believe that teams that pass on these two will be KICKING themselves in the coming years.
I don't know which I'd pick if both were available, to be honest. Depends on whether or not we're keeping Simons. If yes, then Topic. If no, then McCain.

 

From the Athletic:

Jared McCain | 6-2 guard | 20 years old | Duke
College head coach No. 2 (his team played Duke): He was a dog, man. He brought a toughness to their team. He can really, really shoot. And he knows how to play. He looks like he loves to play basketball, like there’s a joy there. There’s a competitive spirit. He’s not afraid. He’s really physical. I thought he took pride in trying to guard. He was the guard in our league that I was probably most impressed with. I thought he was (Duke’s) best pro prospect. …

They didn’t do ball screens with him as much. They ran him off of pindowns. He would get lost in transition, and when you were doubling Flip (center Kyle Filipowski), he can really shoot. He gets it off quick. And he knows he can shoot, so now he can attack the closeouts.

I thought he had really good strive. He can drive and bump you off to create space. His strength and physicality, it really showed on defense. He can really pressure you when he wanted to get after you. And he had the physicality where it’s hard to knock him off. That dude, man, is competitive. He played with an edge, but also a joy. He was like, I’m here, but I’m gonna smile, I’m gonna have fun.

College assistant coach No. 4 (his team played Duke): He’s really competitive. You know who he is? He’s the other Curry (Seth). More in that mode. But takes and makes big shots.

College assistant coach No. 5 (his team played Duke): Impressive. A lot of guys make shots when it don’t matter. He makes shots when it matters. It was my scout. He’s just a shot maker. In today’s NBA, I’m not sure, right now, if he puts it on the floor well enough to build a team around. But watching teams, right now, most teams have two stars, and you need somebody surrounding them making shots. With these great playmakers you’ve got, you need someone making shots. I think he can make an immediate impact. He did in high school. People doubted him. And he came to college and he did the exact same thing. And it’s not like he’s small. To be the best shotmaker, on a team that won the ACC? He’s a scorer.

As good as the guards (in the ACC) are, I know from myself, and talking to the other coaches in the league, he’s at the top of the scout list. He’s the NBA guy on that team. Everyone else, you had to live with one-on-one shots with their guards. … But he can take over a game. He makes four or five in a row. It’s a tie game, and before you know it, you’re down 10, 15.


I didn’t think Jalen Williams could (initiate offense). But Jalen Williams does a pretty good job, when Shai (Gilgeous-Alexander)’s not getting going, of being able to initiate the offense and make shots. (McCain’s)’s not a point guard, like Jalen Williams is not a point guard. But if you ask him to do that, yeah. I think he could develop into a poor man’s (Tyler) Herro. He’s not as crafty making shots. He’s not as crafty getting everybody else shots. But he can shoot it. And Herro developed into getting everybody else shots down the road. When he came in, it was about how do I get my shot?

College head coach No. 3 (his team played Duke): He can really shoot the ball. I thought that was the biggest thing with him. He can really defend. For me, maybe it was just against us, because when I watched against other people it was there. They say he can facilitate. I didn’t see that. I didn’t see no point guard. I saw an undersized two guard.

Well, let me say this — a positionless player, that if he plays with the right team, he’s capable of making shots, able to attack poor closeouts. Maybe in the Duke system, he wasn’t allowed to do as much dribbling. They obviously had (Jeremy) Roach and they had those guys, so it wasn’t like he was going to be the number one option. So I don’t want to take that away from him.

The thing that stuck out to me was the way he can shoot the damn ball. In transition, he was really good. I thought he did a good job of sprinting to space and attacking closeouts. And defensively, I thought he did a great job. He was good on the ball and off the ball. As we like to say, I don’t think he’s running from no competition. He came from California and went to Duke. Taking Cherokee Parks out of the equation, we’d be hard-pressed to think of the last California kid who went to Duke and had success.

Nikola Topić | 6-6 lead guard | 18 years old | Crvena zvezda
Eastern Conference executive No. 4: He was having a great season. He had the knee injury. But, while having that great season, he was a European player who played with a very high IQ. Had the ball in his hands. Was a downhill guard that finishes in traffic, and was crafty and heady. But he wasn’t shooting the ball well. I’m trying to think of how Europeans of have succeeded, of late, that couldn’t shoot the 3.

I don’t want to call him a non-shooter, but was like more trending toward not shooting well. Everybody is going to defend him and say, “Look at the free throw percentage.” I’ve watched this kid for a while. He doesn’t shoot the 3 at a high rate. … But, he’s a big guard. He’s very heady. He has a knack for finishing at the rim off of different feet, different hands. Can play through contact. Draws fouls at a high rate, makes free throws.

I’m not discounting him. Again, top five for a European guard that doesn’t shoot the ball? That’s tough. You go in an NBA locker room, and you’re the guy from Europe, and then we get on the floor and you can’t shoot? They’re going to be like, “I thought that’s what they brought you here for”

And “can’t shoot” is a little harsh. But he trends more toward, he’s an offensive prober. He shoots the jumper as a last ditch (resort). He’s a guy that puts it on the deck, and he probes, and gets downhill, and will create body contact and finish. He’s a great finisher. And he’s really smart in terms of letting offense run, and picking out moments when to dart to the basket, and cut. He’s a smart player. It’s just that the shooting, there’s something to be desired.

Eastern Conference scout: I don’t know that he’s injury-prone; he just has this injury. He’s interesting. Great size, can pass, improved shooter.

Western Conference executive No. 1: The medical we’ve gotten is, they don’t seem that concerned. They think it’s good stuff. It seems like it’s just a kindling with this. This doesn’t seem like it’s going to be a chronic thing. It isn’t like he went to UNC, and you know their medical staff. He’s playing in Europe, and he’s out of sight, out of mind. He’s represented by one of the most powerful agents in Europe (Miško Ražnatović), and Miško has been able to manipulate what he needs. …

If he starts dropping, it’s not because of his size, his age, and his skill; it’s going to be because of something else, and that’s going to be the knee. But it doesn’t seem like it’s going to be a wildfire, where this is legitimately a concern. Right now, when we break him down, how can we add a non-shooter to what we have? You put so much pressure on your player development area — guys, we have to make him to be a respectable shooter. And what that means is, 38 percent, 39 percent from 3. And he’s never done that in his career. But, you guys have to make him that. You can love his size and you love his passing ability and you can love his basketball IQ, but at the end of the day, in the league, you have to be able to make a shot.

 

Zach Edey

 

I have no fucking clue what Joe is up to. I don't know which players that are on our roster today that Joe wants on the roster at the beginning of training camp or after the deadline. So I don't know what position we're drafting here. I would think if someone like Topic is there and his medicals don't look troubling, he would be a steal. Something tells me one of the highly ranked forwards in the lotto (Holland being the most likely candidate) might drop and we might try to be opportunists even if we've already drafted a forward at pick 7.

I'm both excited at the prospect that Joe trades a bunch of the vets/pieces that don't fit where we're going and dreading him doing nothing this off season besides drafting BPA and leaving us with even more questions and less of a direction come tip off on opening night.

 

Even if Holland is available at 14 I don't want him. Again, I get serious Thomas Robinson vibes from him.

 

You could be right, but he is very young and very competitive. I see him as more of a longer, more athletic Josh Hart than a Thomas Robinson.....and Josh played 4 years at Nova. A player every team could use.

 

I think of Harrison F'n Barnes/Andrew Wiggins with Holland. Upside/potential is there, but at a minimum, a plus defender who can score if called upon, and needs to learn to shoot.

 

I second the Edey train! 2nd coming of Edsanity!!!

 

But the thing I keep reading is that he doesn't know how to play. That's not Josh Hart. You can go hard to no good effect if the nuances of the game are lost on you.

 

Don't believe everything you read. But even if true, Hart played 4 years in college....so Holland has 3 years to get to the stage Hart was when he came out of college.

 

It's crazy to me how many people are struggling to understand some of this... This Blazers franchise WANTS to be young and bad. Being 18 and not understanding the game yet is a feature, not a bug. Structurally, this season, Holland would be a weird fit next to Scoot, but that also presupposes we're going to be giving significant minutes to a barely 18 year old AND we care about the outcome, I'm not sure either of those are true.

We're in rebuilding mode, folks. Embrace it or continue to be perplexed AND frustrated.

 

"Understanding the game" is not like "needs reps" - it's more like "unathletic". It's not something that you can work on. Otherwise Thomas Robinson would still be in the league. I have no problem with drafting projects. I have a problem with drafting busts.

 

Sam Vecenie:

WEAKNESSES: The big questions for Holland involve his feel for the game. His decision-making on both ends of the floor was messy throughout the season. On offense, he took a ton of bad, contested shots and turned the ball over too much. In fairness, Holland was overextended as the primary creator for a G League team that lacked anyone else resembling one, and the rest of the team-building strategy was a mess. However, Holland’s handle is loose at this point, and he’s not always capable of controlling the ball when he must self-create. His body control on drives isn’t great, especially when he must be the one to create the initial separation. He doesn’t play with varied pace when coming off screens. Everything looks like it’s moving 1,000 miles per hour for him.
Holland has never been much of a playmaker for others and did not do a great job finding open teammates after drives. He’s unselfish and looks for his teammates in transition, but he threw too many wild passes that resulted in turnovers. He seems to react to everything around him a split second too late. The passes he makes are too often inaccurate, as he rarely hit teammates in their shooting pockets. He averaged 2.9 assists, not a strong number considering his 29 percent usage rate, and paired that with 3.2 turnovers. He needs to slow down and excise a lot of the fat from his game.

 

Absolutely none of that is lack of athleticism. Holland is and is not a lot of things, unathletic is absolutely not one of them. Feel for the game, the game slowing down, reaction time are arguably THE biggest things that you can improve upon in the pros, especially when you're only 18 years old. I don't even know how much I like Holland, but this is an absurd argument.

 

Lol. "Unathletic".

 

He wasn't saying Holland was unathletic, just that knowledge is a comparable skill to athleticism. Versus, say, a shot that needs tweaking.

 

Here is the counter take: also from the Athletic. Hollinger rates him #1. TBH, after reading both, I am finding Vicente more convincing.

Ron Holland? Yes, Ron Holland. Let’s start with the negatives first:

I think Holland is only going to measure 6-6 at the NBA Draft Combine, he shot a ghastly 24 percent from 3 in the G League, and his avert-your-eyes start to the G League season — including an 11-turnover game — had scouts shuddering.

Now, for the good news: He came into the year as the top-rated player on most boards, had better numbers with G League Ignite than any other one-and-done in its history … and somehow went careening down draft boards anyway, even in a draft year where absolutely nobody came in and claimed the top spot for themselves.

I don’t really get it. The biggest complaint with Holland is his lack of efficiency, but that was baked in the second Ignite built this roster. Virtually any teenager put in a situation where he has to carry a 30 percent usage rate is going to struggle; we saw it with LaMelo Ball in Australia and Scoot Henderson in Portland. Holland was no different, especially since he’s not a natural point guard in the first place. Playing on a team with no real creator, he often had to call his own number against loaded-up defenses.

Did he get tunnel vision once he put it on the floor? Absolutely. Was it so tragic to rule him out versus other non-overwhelming options? I don’t think so, especially as the season wore on.

Holland's numbers stack up well against Jalen Green’s with Ignite and are superior to every other Ignite perimeter player who has come through. That happened despite Holland missing the final two months of the season, when his increasing experience would have given him an edge and when the rest of the G League is at its most depleted due to call-ups and fewer assignment players.

In his Ignite season, Green posted a 15.4 PER with 61.3 percent true shooting; Holland had a 15.8 PER on 56.5 percent. The shooting numbers were bad, but Green played on a more coherent team and thus also was only asked to carry a 23 percent usage rate at this level, not Holland’s 28 percent. Also, keep in mind that Holland’s free-throw rate was pretty massive for a perimeter player; four free-throw attempts per game may not seem like much until you remember the G League shoots one attempt that counts for two points. Only 10 players in the whole G League matched his rate. And even with Holland’s brutal early turnover issues, his assist and turnover rates were essentially the same as Green’s age-18 season.

Green would be the No. 1 pick in this draft; I think Holland should be too.

The other reason to like Holland is his defense. His 3.5 percent steal rate stands out; some iffy gambles spiked the total, but there is real talent (and fire) on this end. Overall, his rates of rebounds, steals and blocks compare favorably to former Ignite lottery pick Dyson Daniels, for instance, who has now become an awesome defender at the NBA level. I think Holland has similar pathways to being elite at this end.

On top of that, there’s the good ol’ eye test. I’ve seen Holland shoot a ton, both before games and during them, having watched him in person several times over the last year. He has a low push shot that needs some work, but he’s also not a 24 percent 3-point shooter. His 72.8 percent mark from the line is a more accurate tell on where he stands as a shooter — he isn't Stephen Curry, but his shot isn’t broken either. Just reaching the point where he makes one in three would make him a potent two-way wing, and that feels attainable.

Lastly, consider Holland’s age. With a July 2005 birthdate, he’s nearly a full year younger than several other players vying for places with him in the high lottery: He's six months younger than Rob Dillingham, nine months younger than Stephon Castle or Matas Buzelis and more than a year younger than Donovan Clingan and Reed Sheppard. Teams get caught on class year, but birth year is what matters.

It's not a slam dunk, and you could make a credible case for several players, but Holland has been the top player on my board since the 2023 Hoop Summit. He still has the best overall résumé.

 

What is Vicenke's past record on evaluation? Anyone know?

 

I didn't say he wasn't athletic, I said feel for the game, LIKE being unathletic is not something you can change. I stand by that. You can improve KNOWLEDGE of the game - especially if you have feel for it. For example, some players have come late to the game and done fine (Hakeem, for example). They always had natural feel, they just hadn't had an opportunity to show it. But Holland has been playing since he could walk. If he ain't got it now, he ain't gonna get it.

Now, I could be wrong. And let's hope if we draft him that I am.

 

Coach Billups is better at developing guards. Why go against the grain in a supposed weak draft class? Draft a tall guard at #14, then slap a "wing player" sticker on the new rookie guard. The new kid has to outplay Justin Minaya to earn a roster spot. It's not an impossible feat