When have you been less excited for the start of a Blazers season?

it looks like the Spurs ran mild tanks in 2020-2022. They traded everyone, and went full tank in the next 2 years. SAS landed Wemby. They might need a couple more tanks to become formidable.

Portland landed Shaedon, Scoot, Clingan with Cronin's 3 tanking seasons. The media insists Toumani Camara is obviously more valuable then Lillard's supermax contract. Portland found their diamond in the rough, while also acquiring Avdija with spare parts from Lillard's escape plan.

"Sutainable build" was Cronin's last statement to retort the stinky basketball question. "Committed to bringing a championship to Portland" is Jody's only public adaptation.

Risk vs. Reward:

losing games by 60 might turn into Portland beating teams by 60. Only time will tell if Cronin's lose on purpose experiment works.

 

I think any pic we get from Grant or Simons will likely be top end lottery protected.

 

ROFL.

well, that’s unfortunate cause we have a very solid young core and a GM who knows what he’s doing. I won’t try to persuade anyone of that, but I can certainly reveal things as they are.

 

I hope you are right.

 

Easily the most exciting year in the past decade...And I get to watch games for free. So many intriguing stories to follow with this team.

 

The Pistons have been following your program for the last 5 years. Their record is a cumulative 94-290 over that period. For their dismal efforts, they've had the following lottery picks:

2023-24 Record: 14-68 (Worst in league) Draft Pick: 5 Ron Holland (Whiffed on Sarre)
2022-23 Record: 17-65 (Worst in league) Draft Pick: 5 Ausar Thompson (Whiffed on Wemby)
2021-22 Record: 23-59 (3rd Worst in league) Draft Pick: 1 Jaden Ivey (meh)
2020-21 Record: 20-52 (2nd worst in league) Draft Pick: 1 Cade Cunningham (meh)
2019-20 Record: 20-46 (5th worst in league) Draft Pick: 7 Killian Hays (bust)

So, in 5 years of offering their fans the most miserable basketball in the league, the Pistons have moved up in the draft order twice, moved down three times, and are IMHO absolutely no closer to contention than they were 5 years ago. But keep on tanking, I guess.

 

You can find all the isolated cases that you want. The reality is that you are more likely to get better players with a higher pick. The more often you do that the more likely you are to get more talent.

This is very simple and has been shown to be consistent throughout the history of the NBA.

Yes there are certain teams which cannot draft. They screw everything up. Those teams just have bad management. It doesn't mean they didn't have great opportunities. It means they didn't take advantage of those opportunities.

The problem with being a non-destination team is that you have trouble accruing talent. The most likely way for a non destination team to accrue maximim talent is via the draft.

If you don't disagree with any of these facts then I don't understand what your point of contention is.

I am simply advocating that if we're going to roll the dice we should roll the dice with the best odds that we can possibly get.

We will still need to make good choices. But if we put ourselves in the most advantageous situations we will have more and better options.

 

Oops. Good catch.

 

Nah bro that's 75% chance of getting a solid team that makes it to the Conference finals and we all know that if you get there anything can happen.
By the way Non destination is a matter of opinion but ain't many people taking trips to Milwaukee, San Antonio, Detroit. Denver, Cleveland not to mention Portland has won also. The warriors were in Oakland when they won so not much to look at there either. Guess we better hope Los Vegas doesn't get a team because every championship will be LA, Vegas or New York... Wait how many have New York won? Isn't Brooklyn pretty close to New York? Oh yeah people just go to Boston instead of New York? Wait again? This isn't working out the way you said it would?
My point stands. Hold Grant until we get a good offer seems like a good strategy to me. That as well as Ayton and Simons. those players ain't winning many games the way this team is constructed. Tank another year and they will lose next year anyway.

 

Milwaukee, - lucked into generational talent, best player in the draft

San Antonio, - Tanked into generational talent

Detroit - lucked into generational defensive talent and had excellent coaching. This is about the only exception I can find, and what we'd be hoping to replicate by stopping the tank before drafting a known generational talent.

Denver - lucked into generational talent.

Cleveland - tanked to generational talent #1 pick

Portland - Generational talent #1 pick, ABA dispersal draft. Other "success" came from having the wealthiest owner in sports and very few limits on spending. Portland didn't have success until Paul Allen was able to make lopsided trades weighted with cash.

New York - Among worst ownership in pro sports

So your hope is that we luck our way to success. I get it. Losing sucks. I just disagree with this strategy.

All of the success you listed came from teams who drafted generational talent or had advantages we don't have.

 

You just made my point. You have now said Drexler was a lucky pick. Broy was a lucky pick, You have said getting the first round pick and taking Oden was lucky and then unlucky.
Now you just said all those players on all those teams were lucky picks. You do realize the rules for getting the number one pick now have changed since both the Spurs and Cavs tanked right?
Every number one pick from now on is Lucky. The Spurs just got lucky again.

Oh yeah then there is new York. Can you honestly say The Blazers ownership is better? That is a different conversation but an honest question brother.
I really just wish the team was owned by a better owner or group of owners. The cost cutting and bad deals over the last 10 years has kept this team irrelevant.
Paul Allen (Rest his soul) is gone. The Blazers need new ownership.

 

The Blazers lucked into Drexler and didn't find success until they had the richest owner in sports.

The Blazers didn't have any success with Roy.

Any success the Blazers were going to have with Roy would have come from tanking to the number one pick. And the number two pick.

If Roy had healthy knees we never would have gotten him with that low of a pick.

You are more likely to get a generational talent the higher you draft.

I understand that you don't like losing. What you are doing right now is being illogical.

I'm not making any judgments about current Blazers ownership or management. I wish they would sell to Phil Knight. I don't believe that's going to happen.

It doesn't matter necessarily if we have the number one. I'm not saying we get the number one pick or bust. I'm saying we need multiple opportunities having the highest odds to get the highest pick that we possibly can. That is how you shift the odds in your favor.

We need to do it five or six times. We have now done it one out of three times. I sincerely hope we try to do it two or three more times unless we draft a player who is so damn good that we can't possibly do it.

Neither Grant or Simons is good enough to trade for a player that will help us as much as a generational high draft pick. We need to get rid of them so we can go get that player.

Nobody is going to offer more for Grant than the Lakers. That's his value. And nothing they are offering us is going to help us as much as drafting higher in the draft.

We're going to wind up in the same place with Simons. He doesn't have much value. He's not going to have much value. The best we can hope to get from him is better draft position.

 

I would counter with the last time we were legit contenders(01’) most of those players were traded for or were free agent signings. Not accrued through tanking and the draft.

 

Right, when Paul Allen was the owner and we had a collective bargaining agreement that allowed Paul Allen to trade players away and still pay their contract.

We did that because we had the richest owner in sports who made incredibly lopsided trades. That's it.

We don't have that advantage anymore.

 

so lets say 5 to 7years of tanking for top five or better? And what if in that time, no generational talent arises?
Or we dont luck into that number one?
We could tank for a decade and never get that rop pick. Thats very possible.
Btw. You mentioned milwauikie licked into generational talent. But it wasnt via a top pick so they should nit be in the equation supporting your view.
Same with Denver i believe. Jokic was not atop pick right?

so to me, scouting seems to be as important or possibly more important than draft position.

What is more plausible? We keep tanking aNd get the number one?
Or we out scout and find the diamond in the rough in the late lotto or first round?

seems its a crapshoot either way and to then say someone is being illogical for not sharing your opinion is a bit off the mark. Both ways are crapshoots, but with scouting at least there is semblance of control vs luck.
Neither opinion is illogical.

 

ahh gotcha. Rules have changed alot. Im not privy to all of the changes and impacts on managements ability to team construction.

 

I would add GS to that list. As much as I dislike Draymond, he made that engine run. 35th pick in the draft.

And Curry was lucky as well when you consider Johnny Flynn and Thabeet were drafted ahead of him
Thompson went 11th. (That was a strange draft as Kawhi and Jimmy Butler were drafted behind him)

Then you have teams like Philly who were told to trust the process, has it worked? I guess they can be considered contenders, but they still haven't made the finals for two decades.

I understand your philosophy, and it is just as good as any other, but is it any better than the others?

 

Players get sick and tired of losing just like fans.
Players will not stay in a tanking situation.
If Portland continues this for 3-4 more years they will lose the players they have as well as begin a coaching carousel that all terrible teams seem to have.
That does not mean to say they should not tank this year. They will just because they will suck anyway. Next year also.