Im sitting here thinking about the recent signings in Europe and the NBA and the cap room many teams have in 2010. I have suspected for a while that the teams that miss out on the A+ free agents, will splurge on B and C leftovers and the result will be drastically rising salaries for players that are good, but are not stars. Now, enter the Europe factor. With a few players already spurning NBA offers to sign more lucrative deals overseas, the leverage a non-A list player has is impressive. Meanwhile, when the high part of the middle class rise to the upper class, the lower end of the middle class will be supressed into the lower class, not by choice, but because teams will run out of money faster.....and when the low end of rosters are forced to take lesser deals, who will come calling? Europe, which will perpetuate the entire scenario further.....I don't know exactly how this will play out, but I do believe the NBA's landscape changed dramatically this week....
I think the common element is that all these players are restricted free agents. These are players that are prevented from truly testing the open market and IMO, were unable to make as much money as they could. Europe gives them some leverage for once, and NBA teams will have to adjust their negotiating tactics knowing that they don't have complete control over the situation anymore.
I agree with you, Beef. Teams are going to make hasty, kneejerk signings. There will either be a huge cap raise, which will hurt the league in the long run, or players will go to Europe.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Chutney @ Jul 28 2008, 06:01 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>I think the common element is that all these players are restricted free agents. These are players that are prevented from truly testing the open market and IMO, were unable to make as much money as they could. Europe gives them some leverage for once, and NBA teams will have to adjust their negotiating tactics knowing that they don't have complete control over the situation anymore.</div> There is no real open market for unrestricted free agents when there's only 3 or 4 teams (most years) who have cap space.
there won't be a huge cap raise as long as the max, LLE, MLE, rookie scale, and minimum contracts exist.
Its one thing for a guy who's barely a known NBA player to go to Europe, because he needs money. But I think you'd have a tough time convincing the already rich LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, Amare Stoudemire, etc. to leave their homeland and go all the way overseas. The all-stars are safe here, so are the good-very good players. Its only the guys on the level of a Carlos Delfino (probably a bad comparison since he's foreign to begin with, but I'm talking talent-wise) that we need to be concerned about IMO. But that will open the door for some more unknown players to showcase their talent in taking their place. So in the end I think the NBA's OK. I think a cap-raise is in order, but other than that we're fine.
Who knows, maybe this is for the better. Maybe this will open up things for talented, hardworking guys who never got enough of a chance, but who are in the NBA because they love basketball and actually want to be in the NBA...not because they're only in it for the money.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (#1_War_Poet_ForLife @ Jul 28 2008, 09:36 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>The league is built on that class, Jacoby.</div> I know that the supporting players are crucial, but I'm just saying that if the ones already here opt to go overseas, there are players out there now and will be players out there in the future with sufficient ability who just haven't gotten a fair shot yet.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (pegs @ Jul 28 2008, 09:37 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>Who knows, maybe this is for the better. Maybe this will open up things for talented, hardworking guys who never got enough of a chance, but who are in the NBA because they love basketball and actually want to be in the NBA...not because they're only in it for the money.</div> Exactly. Imaginary rep.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Denny Crane @ Jul 28 2008, 08:24 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Chutney @ Jul 28 2008, 06:01 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>I think the common element is that all these players are restricted free agents. These are players that are prevented from truly testing the open market and IMO, were unable to make as much money as they could. Europe gives them some leverage for once, and NBA teams will have to adjust their negotiating tactics knowing that they don't have complete control over the situation anymore.</div> There is no real open market for unrestricted free agents when there's only 3 or 4 teams (most years) who have cap space. </div> Obviously I meant open market in terms of NBA free agency. Restricted free agents can't even use that, because they their team's ability to match all offers scares away offers and allows their team to handcuff negotiations. Except for the rare few that recieve a ridiculously overvalued offer, most mid-level RFA's are forced to stay with their team for less than they can get.
Two words: David Beckham. I have a feeling that there will be one NBA star who pioneers the way forward in terms of going to Europe to play. It will probably be a player who is getting on the old side and is offered a stupid amount of money to play, in a situation similar to Beckham's in football. There's talk about Jason Kidd going to Europe, but I think it needs to be someone who is more marketable than Kidd. It's tough to say who, but maybe a player like Allen Iverson or Kobe (he grew up in Europe, right?) might make the move in a few years. That will pave the way for others to do the same, bring more money into the European game and set of the Multiplier Effect. Perhaps the best way for the NBA to subdue this movement would be to create a European Division in an effort to monopolise the European basketball market too. Whatever happens, they'll need to try to find a solution in the next few years or risk having a major competitor in the near future. Maybe (MAYBE) a solution could be to work in tandem, have the Euros adopt the NBA rules etc and convert them into a European Conference. Each NBA team could have a Eurotrip and each Euro team could have a US trip. Might be tricky to implement, but it might help the NBA.
The thing is, whoever goes to Europe will always have a condition attached to them that's prevented NBA teams from doing whatever it takes to keep them here. Just looking at the players that've left so far, they've been either too unproven (Delfino, Childress), too injured (Krstic, Garbajosa), or too unproductive (Nachbar) for teams to risk paying that much. I'm guessing at some point we can add too old to that list of reasons (the David Beckham phenomenon). These aren't stars and I don't ever see current stars leaving for Europe. Of course that doesn't mean you can dismiss the trend off-hand. If you look at every NBA roster, you'll find that the successful teams have depth because of these type of players or their stars used to be those type of players. There's an even smaller margin of error now for NBA teams, when it comes to assessing which role players will grow and become worthy of the money they can get.
The part I worry about isnt the guys that leave for europe, its the salary above average and average players will be able to leverage because of the threat of going to Europe....the stars already get maxed out, but when the B and C level guys are elevated, it leaves a lot less for the remaining C level and D level players....it essentially widens the gap between the echoleons, upper and lowers, thats something unions always fight against....there is anotehr issue, NBA players have a maximum deal, players that go to Europe dont....is it so crazy to think a guy like LeBron, who is global anyway, would take a $200 million personal services contract over an NBA max deal?
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (TheBeef @ Jul 28 2008, 01:19 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>is it so crazy to think a guy like LeBron, who is global anyway, would take a $200 million personal services contract over an NBA max deal?</div> It is, indeed, crazy.
This is one big experiment by European teams. Those teams that shelled out for US players are losing money and owned by rich guys. How many of those big deals will they be able to do? I sense not many. I'm curious to see what the reports are like from the US players. I've heard these teams are not the swiftest to pay and the facilities are not very good. Wouldn't surprise me if one of these Russian teams stiffs a player like Krstic if he doesn't perform up to his pre-injury ability. Unless the US economy goes completely in the shitter and these arenas are empty and ratings plummet, I think the NBA will still be the preferred destination. In the end a trend requires multiple years. Let's see what happens in the next 2 summers.
The NBA will be the preferred league for the masses....the Euro teams have no illisions about that....however, they dont need the masses, they just need a couple of players to augment what they have going....so far, its been role players, but that gives all the players leverage, especially in the early part of their careers when teams own their rights....its not a big deal at the moment, but it just takes one rogue billionaire, and they do exist, to offer Kobe or Lebron a $250 million personal services deal....at this point, its a disturbing trend, and if nothing is changed, it could become an all out epidemic....
