Warriors Offseason Losers

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE </div><div class='quotemain'>I feel sorry for Warriors GM Chris Mullin. A little more than a year ago, he was the guy who helped the Warriors end an ugly 12-year playoff drought. His hard work paid off in the 2007 playoffs when his Warriors pulled off one of the biggest first-round upsets in NBA history.

Last season, the Warriors were good, just not good enough to make the playoffs in the ultra competitive West. Then disaster struck this offseason as Baron Davis bolted for the Clippers and the Warriors panicked. After trying and failing to lure Elton Brand and Gilbert Arenas to Golden State, the Warriors spent way too much on Corey Maggette, a guy who duplicates many of their strengths and addresses none of their weaknesses.

Now the Warriors look poised to fall out of the playoffs for the next few seasons as they restart the rebuilding process. That has to be a huge blow to the gut of Warriors fans that rabidly supported the Warriors in 2007.

But there is a silver lining in Golden State.

First, the Warriors were right in not overpaying to keep Davis. I'll be surprised if he's still playing 50 games a season in the last few years of that deal. Second, the Warriors locked up their two young free agents -- Monta Ellis and Andris Biedrins -- to rich, but not ridiculous deals. If those two continue to develop along with young players like Brandan Wright, Marco Belinelli and rookie Anthony Randolph, the Warriors will be good in about three years.

Still, I'm not sure Warriors fans like the idea of waiting after missing the playoffs in 16 of 17 years.</div>
Source

 

I agree with Run, but I'm not into total rebuild mode. And when I mean by total rebuild mode, I mean what the Bulls, Hawks were trying to do. They would just draft guys and they wouldn't sign impact veterans. Well, I take that back, the Bulls tried to make Ben Wallace work, but for a while they would have a full rookie squad of Crawford, Curry, Chandler, and some other rookies. The Hawks just drafted BAPs and wound up with a bunch of forwards. Had they not been in the East, their efforts would be for nothing.

The only real franchise to build from scratch and be successful was the Blazers, but the Blazers didn't even do as well as we did and who knows if Oden would have been a factor (big men usually take years to figure out what it takes to stay on the floor). I'm also thinking the Blazers were lucky to have landed Roy as he was the most draft-ready prospect, but didn't have this franchise level upside according to scouts. Plus, the Bulls helped them out by giving them Aldridge (who IMO should have been #1 overall instead of that Italian 7 footer that doesn't go inside or rebound much). Bargnani will be good, but I don't think franchise good so he might be considered a bust on the level of Tim Thomas or one of those guys who went too high but were still good players.

So Blazers youth movement... not sure if that will work for us unless we pick somebody that is just plain ready to play on both ends of the floor... We never have that luck. We're lucky to get one guy that plays one side of the floor. There's just few physically, mentally ready guys who have leadership skills who can behave like a player well beyond their years. So that's why I don't believe in total blow up youth movement. You've got to have top guys who also function as leaders or top guys who can grow to be leaders. But to have that, you have to have a series of good mentors who can play and a team that trusts each other. I'd say no youth movement unless we draft a whole bunch of all around players that know the game and are plain ready. We just don't have that in all 5 positions and relying on the draft to do that is just risky business. Blazers were just damn lucky to get both Oden and Aldridge (both consensus 1 or 2 picks in my book) along with Roy and some pure point guards. Travis Outlaw has also became a player, but it took him a while to get good.

Now... I realize in hindsight that this contradicts what I said earlier about rolling with Baron Davis as the franchise lead, being only good enough for the 8th seed, and then winding up with a non-lottery pick that won't land us that coveted big man we're always after. I wanted us to tank. I think that changed once we got a possible top 3 draft pick in Brandan Wright, Biedrins improved a bit, and we got Hendrix, Turiaf, and Randolph. I think that gave me a little more faith for some reason. If our current bigs can do well, maybe we don't need to tank to land a top 5 guy that might get us a high floor, solid ceiling player in a weak draft. Ideally, we want a Tim Duncan or a Shaq, you know, somebody that can draw double teams, score and get fouled, play D, and pass. Somebody that changes the game... It's always a crap shoot to land that type of player. The best policy is not to try that route because you know how the rich seem to always be getting richer. Let's just get rich, so we can get richer like how all the poor teams view the rich teams.

 

I still think the big key to getting back to the playoffs is to get another PG to replace Baron. Someone like Kirk Hinrich who looks like a great fit for Nellieball. That's even more important than getting Josh Smith in my book. However, one has to admit that Monta can't play PG first and Mullin isn't ready to do that now. Big mistake!

As for Corey Maggette, I think the idea was to get rid of AL in order to show his worth. However, if we can't get rid of AL, then I have to agree that the Warriors paid a lot of $'s for someone who duplicates the position. Still, Mags gets to the line a lot and will be more of an offensive force than AL which means he's an upgrade. Again, we got to get rid of AL somehow.

 

I like Maggette a lot more than Harrington too, but he's not really a replacement or an upgrade because he won't be playing PF very much whether Al is here or not. Warriors are still so weak there, I don't see how they can get it done with Al + Wright this year.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (HiRez @ Aug 6 2008, 02:25 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>I like Maggette a lot more than Harrington too, but he's not really a replacement or an upgrade because he won't be playing PF very much whether Al is here or not. Warriors are still so weak there, I don't see how they can get it done with Al + Wright this year.</div>

AL=PF? Horrible. I see him more as a SF/C under Nellieball. However, I do agree PF will be our weak spot if Wright can't get the job done. I thought that was why people wanted Josh Smith because he's more ready to step in next season.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Custodianrules2 @ Aug 5 2008, 11:23 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>I agree with Run, but I'm not into total rebuild mode. And when I mean by total rebuild mode, I mean what the Bulls, Hawks were trying to do. They would just draft guys and they wouldn't sign impact veterans. Well, I take that back, the Bulls tried to make Ben Wallace work, but for a while they would have a full rookie squad of Crawford, Curry, Chandler, and some other rookies. The Hawks just drafted BAPs and wound up with a bunch of forwards. Had they not been in the East, their efforts would be for nothing.

The only real franchise to build from scratch and be successful was the Blazers, but the Blazers didn't even do as well as we did and who knows if Oden would have been a factor (big men usually take years to figure out what it takes to stay on the floor). I'm also thinking the Blazers were lucky to have landed Roy as he was the most draft-ready prospect, but didn't have this franchise level upside according to scouts. Plus, the Bulls helped them out by giving them Aldridge (who IMO should have been #1 overall instead of that Italian 7 footer that doesn't go inside or rebound much). Bargnani will be good, but I don't think franchise good so he might be considered a bust on the level of Tim Thomas or one of those guys who went too high but were still good players.

So Blazers youth movement... not sure if that will work for us unless we pick somebody that is just plain ready to play on both ends of the floor... We never have that luck. We're lucky to get one guy that plays one side of the floor. There's just few physically, mentally ready guys who have leadership skills who can behave like a player well beyond their years. So that's why I don't believe in total blow up youth movement. You've got to have top guys who also function as leaders or top guys who can grow to be leaders. But to have that, you have to have a series of good mentors who can play and a team that trusts each other. I'd say no youth movement unless we draft a whole bunch of all around players that know the game and are plain ready. We just don't have that in all 5 positions and relying on the draft to do that is just risky business. Blazers were just damn lucky to get both Oden and Aldridge (both consensus 1 or 2 picks in my book) along with Roy and some pure point guards. Travis Outlaw has also became a player, but it took him a while to get good.

Now... I realize in hindsight that this contradicts what I said earlier about rolling with Baron Davis as the franchise lead, being only good enough for the 8th seed, and then winding up with a non-lottery pick that won't land us that coveted big man we're always after. I wanted us to tank. I think that changed once we got a possible top 3 draft pick in Brandan Wright, Biedrins improved a bit, and we got Hendrix, Turiaf, and Randolph. I think that gave me a little more faith for some reason. If our current bigs can do well, maybe we don't need to tank to land a top 5 guy that might get us a high floor, solid ceiling player in a weak draft. Ideally, we want a Tim Duncan or a Shaq, you know, somebody that can draw double teams, score and get fouled, play D, and pass. Somebody that changes the game... It's always a crap shoot to land that type of player. The best policy is not to try that route because you know how the rich seem to always be getting richer. Let's just get rich, so we can get richer like how all the poor teams view the rich teams.</div>

I'm not that crazy about going mostly youth, but have to agree that the Blazers have done a hell of a job of tossing that line of thinking out the window. Still, you have a point in that they didn't do as well as the Warriors last season. We'll have to see how they do next season. We also have Nellie as head coach, so I don't think one goes with the youth movement even though that is where the Warriors have gone. Some of it was by design and some not by design because no one expected Baron to opt out. That lead to a series of chain reactions that put us where we are today. I think Mullin has done a fine job trying to correct his mistake of not trying to extend Baron to at least three more years. If Baron didn't go for the ~$50 M for four years, then it wouldn't look as bad on Mullin's part as what happened after Baron opted out.

But back to having Nellie as head coach, I think Mullin is still going to deal. It appears that Mullin has listened to Nellie and has assembled the players that he thinks will fit in with Nellieball. However, he also stated to Nelson to start thinking about the future and play and develop the youngsters because that, too, is the job of a coach. It's something that Nelson has neglected in the past in his quest for wins, so he has to change his style of coaching.

One of the big question marks will be Brandon Wright. I'm not sure if Nellie was entirely sold on Wright. It didn't appear that way early in the season, but during the later stretch Wright got to see some action. If Wright is not progressing and Nellie starts to look elsewhere, then I can see Wright being packaged in a trade deal. The second big question mark will be Marco Belinelli. He needs to establish himself in a role whether off the bench or earning the starter role. I think Nellie will give both a chance, but I don't think Nellie will go with them for long if he finds the Warriors are losing. Then he's going have to search for answers again.

Finally, I didn't address the go to guy role you touched upon, i.e. the guy who can get the ball and draw the double teams. I think Monta can be that guy, but not at the PG position. It's tough enough for him to be thrown into that role at SG, but he'll have to do it from the starting PG position as well. Anything that can take the pressure off of Monta will be a plus.

 

jv, you're placing a lot of emphasis on getting a PG but I think the team is structured in a way now that even Monta at starting PG, he's going to get a lot of support so I don't think everything falls on his shoulder. The goal should be to nurture Monta into that position while still allowing him to do what he does best. All the while, other parts of his game should come to fruition too.

Key word: should

 

If we, or any one else, are going to try to get Smith it could happen soon. He just singed a 58M offer sheet. I don't know how long it's for but I would assume 5 years. That's pretty reasonable. I would figure that even if ATL does not want to keep him they would match the offer then trade him. I'm still crossing my fingers.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (ryan @ Aug 8 2008, 08:59 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>If we, or any one else, are going to try to get Smith it could happen soon. He just singed a 58M offer sheet. I don't know how long it's for but I would assume 5 years. That's pretty reasonable. I would figure that even if ATL does not want to keep him they would match the offer then trade him. I'm still crossing my fingers.</div>

It just says Memphis sent him an offer sheet worth 58M. I guess it's safe to assume he will sign it. It would be prudent for Atlanta to match the offer or they risk getting nothing for him. At the same time, I guess they save some cash if they don't match and if they feel there's no deals that are worth pursuing.

 

Smith for 11.6 mils per year is a fantastic bargain, IMO. I'm surprised Smith's camp has been working this long and has only come up with that deal. That's just a shave more than what Maggette got, and I would have MUCH rather given that dough to Smith, given the fact that we needed a PF. I guess there aren't a lot of teams with $$ to spend? But if I were Atl I would match it and KEEP Smith for those kinds of dollars.

I don't really see Atl doing a sign-n-trade -- what are they going to get back? Al Harrington? I'd much rather have the cap space...

 

As far as I know, Smith cannot be sign and trade anymore if he signed the offer sheet. It's either Atlanta or Memphis in that case. Yeah, I am also surprised that Smith couldn't get more than 58 mils for 5 years. That's slightly more than what Monta got. If Mullin knew this would happen, he should have pursued Smith instead of Mag. But of course, Atlanta should definitely match that contract...

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Kensaku @ Aug 8 2008, 10:14 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>jv, you're placing a lot of emphasis on getting a PG but I think the team is structured in a way now that even Monta at starting PG, he's going to get a lot of support so I don't think everything falls on his shoulder. The goal should be to nurture Monta into that position while still allowing him to do what he does best. All the while, other parts of his game should come to fruition too.

Key word: should</div>

It's almost like I have to hold myself back because I realize that I have been saying that like every other post. To be fair, I'm not giving much credit for Monta playing backup PG last season, but I can't help but think that is not where the Warriors were headed with Monta. He sure didn't seem like he was be groomed for the PG position and that the Warriors were thinking they were going to get a PG from the draft or trade after Baron was gone. I'll wait to see how Monta does in the season, but would not be surprised at all if a trade is made.

BTW the Josh Smith signing by Memphis changes things a bit and may force Mullin to improve the team elsewhere like at PG.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (AlleyOop @ Aug 8 2008, 01:05 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>Smith for 11.6 mils per year is a fantastic bargain, IMO. I'm surprised Smith's camp has been working this long and has only come up with that deal. That's just a shave more than what Maggette got, and I would have MUCH rather given that dough to Smith, given the fact that we needed a PF. I guess there aren't a lot of teams with $$ to spend? But if I were Atl I would match it and KEEP Smith for those kinds of dollars.

I don't really see Atl doing a sign-n-trade -- what are they going to get back? Al Harrington? I'd much rather have the cap space...</div>
Something like Harrington, Wright, and Belinelli I would imagine. Harrington gives them a veteran who can at least play NBA ball and is a large expiring contract. You'd have to include Wright to replace a PF position and a young player with high upside. Belinelli is going to have a hard time finding minutes under Nelson and in particular with this current roster (at SG SJax and Azubuike will be ahead of him, and he'll fight with Morrow; at PG you have Monta, Williams, and Watson). Those three players have salaries totaling about $13.2 million, which should be close enough to get Smith in a trade for $12M-$13M per year.

C: Biedrins | Turiaf | Croshere (?)
PF: J. Smith | Hendrix | Randolph
SF: Maggette | Azubuike | Randolph
SG: SJax | Azubuike | Monta | Morrow | Randolph
PG: Monta | Williams | Watson

That looks like a really solid and still deep team to me, easily playoff material whether Monta is a great PG or not. There's no doubt Smith would bring interior toughness, defense, and rebounding, the only thing I really don't like about his game is he shoots in the mid-40% range, which is quite frankly pretty awful for a PF. That may even get worse in a Nelson system. I'd still lean toward this trade if Atlanta was forced to move him because I think it makes the Warriors a better team in the short term, but it does come with some risks.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Kwan1031 @ Aug 8 2008, 04:01 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>As far as I know, Smith cannot be sign and trade anymore if he signed the offer sheet. It's either Atlanta or Memphis in that case. Yeah, I am also surprised that Smith couldn't get more than 58 mils for 5 years. That's slightly more than what Monta got. If Mullin knew this would happen, he should have pursued Smith instead of Mag. But of course, Atlanta should definitely match that contract...</div>

Hey Kwan, just wondering about that -- is that the rule with matching a RFA? Like, if Atlanta had outright signed Smith, then they could do a sign-n-trade, but since they are matching the Memphis offer, they lose the option of doing a sign-n-trade? I'd just like to know the details on that so I can put to rest any remaining fancies that Smith might become a Warrior

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (AlleyOop @ Aug 9 2008, 01:35 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Kwan1031 @ Aug 8 2008, 04:01 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>As far as I know, Smith cannot be sign and trade anymore if he signed the offer sheet. It's either Atlanta or Memphis in that case. Yeah, I am also surprised that Smith couldn't get more than 58 mils for 5 years. That's slightly more than what Monta got. If Mullin knew this would happen, he should have pursued Smith instead of Mag. But of course, Atlanta should definitely match that contract...</div>

Hey Kwan, just wondering about that -- is that the rule with matching a RFA? Like, if Atlanta had outright signed Smith, then they could do a sign-n-trade, but since they are matching the Memphis offer, they lose the option of doing a sign-n-trade? I'd just like to know the details on that so I can put to rest any remaining fancies that Smith might become a Warrior
</div>

I really don't think that's possible. Sign-and-Trade should be a single transaction, and by signing Memphis deal (or Hawks deal), the chance of sign-and-trade is gone. It's like you went to a grocery store and forgot to use a coupon. Once the transaction is done, you can't just give your coupon and ask for money back. You have to return the product and go through the purchasing process again, and NBA has yet to introduce a return policy yet . I think Smith can be traded after 30 days (or is it 90?). However, I believe he will be first year BYC, and it would be nearly impossible to trade for him...

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Denny Crane @ Aug 8 2008, 07:44 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>^^^ I think Smith is a SF on offense and PF on defense. He's a guy who likes to shoot 48% of his shots from the outside and only 10% of his shots are dunks, takes more 3's than a PF should, and gets a lot of assists compared to a PF.

He would be a godsend for Nellie's basketball system.</div>

Yeah, I don't like that in a starting power forward unless the center is a complete offensive stud. Although I wouldn't say its a detriment to a team like the Warriors (for obvious reasons under Nelson), I'd prefer if the power forward played more like a guy who understands
1.) how to create separation (use of hip, shoulder, backside) to get space from a defender or draw fouls
2.) how to use backboard, the rim, and either hand effectively to get a shot off in traffic.
3.) can take 50% of shots inside the paint, 50% from outside, and can drive toward the rim (effective inside and outside offense)
4.) is a good weakside, help defender, rebounder, and shotblocker.
5.) can make passes

I think what I described was either Elton Brand, young Chris Webber, Tim Duncan and only once in a while is the nba ever lucky to find an Elton Brand clone. If there's ever a power forward that can do that and can play center, that team will probably a championship contender provided the backcourt help is there.

 

I think Mullin was smart to not overpay Davis. Any long term deal would have strained their payroll, and their ceiling would have been first round exits for the next 5 seasons since they didn't hang on to Richardson.

It will suck missing the playoffs next season, but I think it will be interesting to see how this team plays out for the next few seasons.

They have Jackson, and Harrington's $17 million coming off the books for the huge 2010 free agency, and will have a nice chance to land a star while keeping intact their young core of Ellis, Biedrins, Maggette, and Wright. If this team nets Lebron, Bosh, Anthony (if he matures), or Wade they could be contenders.

Ellis should have no trouble running the point on this team full of ballhandlers. Now that Davis is gone, he can take his time and maybe become a super-star if he develops some playmaking ability.


I still think about what would have happened last season if they hung on to Richardson.