Kevin Pelton: Warriors Preview

Shapecity · Oct 25, 2008

2. Golden State Warriors (Projected Record: 48-34)
Offensive Rating: 114.4 (2nd)
Defensive Rating: 111.0 (22nd)

Player WARP Win % PPG RPG APG Imp Break Dec Best Comp
Monta Ellis 5.8 0.578 20.8 4.8 4.1 0.71 0.02 0.00 Willie Anderson
Stephen Jackson 3.7 0.481 17.9 4.4 3.8 0.30 0.05 0.11 Jalen Rose
Corey Maggette 7.0 0.542 22.7 6.0 2.8 0.30 0.00 0.10 Tony Campbell
Al Harrington 2.3 0.468 12.9 5.8 1.8 0.27 0.00 0.02 Eric Piatkowski
Andris Biedrins 9.8 0.641 11.1 10.0 1.3 0.58 0.04 0.04 Buck Williams
Kelenna Azubuike 2.0 0.479 8.2 3.9 1.0 0.51 0.12 0.02 Chris Mills
Ronny Turiaf 3.4 0.537 6.7 3.7 1.7 0.43 0.04 0.08 Kurt Nimphius
Brandan Wright 3.8 0.577 6.1 4.0 0.5 0.58 0.00 0.05 Jermaine O'Neal
Marcus Williams 2.3 0.518 6.8 2 2.7 0.66 0.22 0.06 Steve Colter
C.J. Watson 0.1 0.420 4.8 1.4 1.5 0.67 0.11 0.06 Milt Palacio
DeMarcus Nelson -0.1 0.409 1.7 0.8 0.5 ( R )
Marco Belinelli -1.1 0.349 4.2 0.6 0.7 0.82 0.45 0.05 Casey Jacobsen
Anthony Randolph -0.4 0.371 1.7 1.1 0.2 ( R )
Richard Hendrix 1.9 0.569 3.3 2.3 0.4 ( R )

I read recently someone quoting Bill James as having an 80/20 theory for rating systems: 80 percent of the ratings should generally conform to your expectations (making it close enough to pass the so-called "laugh test") while about 20 percent should be surprising (so the system tells you something besides what you already know or believe). The Golden State Warriors fall into SCHOENE's 20 percent. I did not expect that, having lost their best player to free agency and seen their young star cost himself the first two months of the season by getting into a moped accident, the Warriors would come out as an improved team.

What is SCHOENE seeing that we've missed subjectively? Well, there are a couple of reasons to discount the projection. We haven't taken into account the value of Davis' passing. The projection says that there will be no penalty whatsoever for replacing Baron Davis with Corey Maggette and moving Monta Ellis to the point. That's not realistic. Second, Golden State is clearly a much stronger offensive team than a defensive one, and the way the system operates tends to favor offense-biased teams because defensive projections tend to have less variation at the extremes.

All that said, there might be something here. Maggette was a far more efficient offensive player than Davis was last season with a higher usage rate. As great as he was and is, Davis has never been an efficient shooter. The Warriors should be able to replace their losses on the wings (Matt Barnes and Mickaël Pietrus) without too much difficulty, while the post rotation should be improved with the addition of Ronny Turiaf and the development of Brandan Wright. Do I see Golden State competing for home-court advantage? No. Can I see the Warriors making the playoffs? Absolutely.

Notes:

This section required a quick rewrite when on Tuesday Don Nelson declared that undrafted rookie DeMarcus Nelson is, at the moment, his starter at the point, with Marcus Williams running third string behind Nelson and C.J. Watson. SCHOENE is actually quite fond of Williams if he can get accustomed to Nelson's system. As for Nelson, his translated numbers were better than I realized, though he's not exactly the true point guard Golden State could use. I'm dubious about his chances of staying in the rotation.

Wright illustrates the difficulty of using the "breakout" projection in basketball. If he gets the minutes (an open question), Wright is a major breakout candidate, which is why he appeared on my Diamond Rating list last week. Yet not one of his comps "broke out" simply because they were too good as a group previously. It's unlikely Wright's per-minute rating will improve that much; it's his WARP that figures to shoot up. Marco Belinelli, on the other hand, almost has to see his per-minute rating get better if he plays substantial time.

Andris Biedrins to Buck Williams is certainly not a comparison I ever would have made between two players of very different heights if somewhat similar results. Note that the similarity (95.7) is not especially high.

Worth noting: The projection system doesn't put assists in the team context the way it does many other stats. Still, Golden State's projected rate of assists per field goal made (.49) is the lowest in the league and would be an outlier. Nobody in the league assisted on less than half of made field goals last year.
Click to expand...

Source: Basketball Prospectus

xplicitjc · Oct 25, 2008

if we win 48 games this year, i'll be ecstatic.

HiRez · Oct 25, 2008

Heck, I'll be ecstatic with 41, all things considered. I do think their chances of a playoff spot are not high, but I wouldn't discount them entirely either. I'd say they have maybe a 1 in 3 shot.

Log in or Sign up

Kevin Pelton: Warriors Preview

Shapecity S2/JBB Teamster Staff Member Administrator

xplicitjc cold as a hooker's heart

HiRez Overlord

Share This Page

Log in or Sign up

Kevin Pelton: Warriors Preview

Moderators

Shapecity S2/JBB Teamster Staff Member Administrator

xplicitjc cold as a hooker's heart

HiRez Overlord

Share This Page

Useful Searches