Right now we're sitting at #19. The past few years there has been some real gems that fell into the 20s. Who out there do you think could be a sleeper? For reference: 2009: -Omri Casspi (#23) -Rodrigue Beaubois (#25) -Darren Collison (#21) -Eric Maynor (#20) -Taj Gibson (#26) -Dejuan Blair (#37) -Jonas Jerebko (#39) 2008: -Serge Ibaka (#24) -Geroge Hill (#26) -Nicolas Batum (#25) -Courtney Lee (#22) -L.R. Mbah a Moute (#37)
My early pick: WILLIE WARREN 6'4" SG/PG NBA Comparison: Ben Gordon/Rodney Stuckey He's had a down year but if he came out last year he would have been a top-10 pick. Similar to Batum; Pritchard said himself that if Nic came out after his impressive Hoop Summit performance he would have been a "top-6" pick. He went back to Europe and had a down year. Portland's gain. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hCCng3DWfrM
Really hard to say. I don't think Ihave ever seen a year with so much disagreement among mock drafts. Players like Udoh, Sanders, Whiteside, and Vesely are all over the map. Just off the top of my head, I will say Udoh could be a sleeper (though some mocks now have him in the late lotto), and Sanders could be a pleasant surprise in the 20s.
I don't even know if there is a particular skillset we're after. Is Jerryd our PG? Will KP still be here at draft time? If so, we're gonna go with BPA, but so many questions will be left to answer after the playoffs.
In my opinion, Jerryd is not and will not be a sufficient starting point guard. I don't even know if I think he is a sufficient backup. So I don't know who, but I want to target a PG.
http://www.nbadraft.net/players/armon-johnson http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EThWFCOdJtc&feature=player_embedded http://www.nbadraft.net/players/eric-bledsoe Or even Sherron Collins who fits the mold of an extremely successful point guard at a high profile college (Darren Collison?) who not many people think will be good in the NBA.
And I'm not being facetious. He's on a very good team in the league that Brandon Jennings put up far worse stats in. We know he's a better PG than Bayless because two summer leagues ago he was PG to Bayless's SG. He's a Bigger Better Blakey. And don't forget: PK to NB
It also depends on what trades we might make. Our biggest needs are PG and center. Our next need is a shooter.
RENARDO SYDNEY 6'10" PF/C "a 6-foot-10 prospect with a powerful build and uncommon shooting range for a big man." He was considered the top prospect in the 2009 class. Not clear if he'll return for his Soph. season but had a lot of eligibility issues this past season. Committed to USC but somehow ended up with Mississippi State. [video=youtube;jrQ_iE3kR7A]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jrQ_iE3kR7A[/video] [video=youtube;N0U98DCb60o]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N0U98DCb60o&feature=player_embedded[/video]
In terms of guys available around 20 or so...I don't think Bledsoe will be there at PG, though I like what I see from him. Kenneth Faried reminds me a lot of Sacramento Gerald Wallace--if Webster goes somewhere this summer I think it'd be fun having this guy spelling Nic off the bench. Charles Garcia fell off the map after I started pimping him earlier this year--I know it's not even close to being a comparison, but I get a 'Sheed vibe from him...talented and skilled big man with something (no idea what) holding him back. Though I think 'Sheed's 10x smarter. I don't know if I really like either Hayward, Singler or Udoh, and for similar reasons. Hayward intrigues me, but I wonder if it's just b/c of the last 2 weeks...Singler is going to draw major AmMo comparisons (though I think he's more point-forward Dunleavy than a really big, really slow SG AmMo), and Udoh seems like a less athletic (and slightly bigger) Travis Outlaw (circa 2006). Another Outlaw comparison (slightly different) is Larry Sanders from VCU. If Steve Nash was our PG, I'd be all over this guy. He's a deer, he's a shotblocker, he's skinny, and he's supposedly a very good finisher. But when a player's BBIQ is low, and his athleticism is only drawn out by playing D (and not really big enough for an NBA Center) or running the break--those aren't great fits for us. Orton's also a bit intriguing, but for a guy who'll be told to just crash the boards and play D for 8-12 minutes a night (optimistically) he doesn't have great rebounding rates and some scouts say he's doomed on the P&R. Kind of a bad thing in the West. Honestly, (and this is subject to change), I wouldn't mind if we took Bledsoe, Hayward or Singlerat ~20 (with the major hope that Singler will allow more time for Batum at the 1...) and Faried in the 2nd round--even if we have to pay a few million for a pick around 35 or so (maybe he'll be there at 42...who knows?). I don't think Motiejunas will be there for us at ~20. Sanders and Udoh and Orton don't seem like good fits, though they'll probably be good players. I'll probably end up doing a better draft board later, but this is my initial thought on the question while trying to feed a preemie baby girl.
GORDON HAYWARD BUTLER SOPH. 6'9" SF/PF NBA COMPARISON: JAMES JONES/MIKE DUNLEAVY [video=youtube;J6AdlhgwqWo]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J6AdlhgwqWo[/video]
Assuming Martell, Bayless and/or Rudy get moved on draft night for an heir apparent to Miller, we're going to need a guard/forward and maybe they could get a guy like Quincy Pondexter and plug him in at either the backup 2 or 3 -- he defends, he's a decent scorer and shooter and he's tough. http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Quincy-Pondexter-1122/ Plus he's a senior which maybe limits his upside but probably raises his floor, making him a more useful player immediately
NBAdraft.net has Portland selecting Kyle Singler. I think he could be a very effective player off of the bench. They have Gordon Hayward of Butler going at #20 to OKC. Both are well-rounded offensive wings. Quincy Pondexter may be available as well. I think SF is a need position, since Webster seems to be a very inconsistent back-up to Batum.
So long as Pon is just asked to be a defensive player who can score at times off of the bench, I'd be down with that. Let him find a role; a lesser version of Batum would be awesome. Imagine the 48 minutes of hell the Kobes and Carmelos would have to go through to get theirs against Portland for the next 5-10 years.
I think he's extremely inconsistent, and could quite potentially be moved this offseason, but I like the 48 minutes of hell we can throw at them now with Batum and Martell. Batum's length and quickness, adn then Martell's strength. Make Kobe run around Batum, then bring in Martell to bang with him, then back to Batum. Actually a really good strategy. I don't really see a rookie getting rotational minutes next season, barring any injuries. Or a crazy trade into the lotto. I think this team is right there, and veteran additions are going to make way more sense. In that case, I think you just go BPA.
If I had to pick between the three, I'd probably go Pondexter first (because of his D), Hayward second, and Singler third. Something about KS just bugs me, I don't think he's going to be all that great of a pro -- and Hell, I'm a South Medford grad so you'd think I'd love the guy.
We shouldn't be planning for Kobe, we need to be thinking about Durant, Melo and Lebron ... I doubt Pondexter can hang with either guy as a rookie (or maybe ever?) but he's dang tough, rangy and really understands team defense. You're right though, veterans are probably more important than adding rookies, but there's only so much we'll be able to do with the MLE, and smart, talented players are still smart talented players even if they are rookies.
There are obvious comparisons to Mike Dunleavy, but Singler has a better NBA body and rebounds better than Dunleavy. I think he'll be a decent pro. Not an All-Star, maybe not even a starter on a contender, but someone who can help a contender off of the bench. A Luke Walton, but one who can shoot and put the ball on the floor at times. For a pick around #20, I'd take that and be happy. Pon probably makes more sense, though, as you suggested.