Consensus Mock Draft from nba.com

Discussion in 'Golden State Warriors' started by jason bourne, May 28, 2011.

  1. jason bourne

    jason bourne JBB JustBBall Member

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    Welcome back to another year of the Consensus Mock Draft. For those who don't remember, this page is a compilation of the best mock drafts around the web. We bring them together to come up with a good estimate of how the 2011 NBA Draft could play out.

    A few early trends after the pre-Draft workouts in Chicago:

    • The top two are the only picks even close to a consensus. Kyrie Irving is No. 1 on all 12 mocks, while Derrick Williams is No. 2 in 11 of the 12 (Sporting News has Enes Kanter No. 2, with Williams third).

    • Kentucky point guard Brandon Knight is hard to pin down in the mocks. He appears most often at No. 3 to Utah (five times), but his range is anywhere from No. 3 to No. 9. The Jazz pick could determine a lot of how the lottery will shake out, as they can go big (Kanter or Williams) or small (Knight or Walker).

    • We were close to seeing a consensus on Williams at No. 2, but HoopsWorld surprisingly dropped him all the way to No. 4, with Kanter and Kemba Walker going ahead of him.

    • Speaking of HoopsWorld, they're also the only mock we survey that leaves out Jonas Valanciunas, who is going fifth or higher on six of the 12 mocks and never lower than No. 9. HoopsWorld has him going No. 18 to the Wizards.

    • Alec Burks has become more of a consensus at No. 10, as he's tabbed at that spot in five of the 12 mocks. Two mocks have him going as high as No. 6.

    • Opinion still ranges on NCAA Player of the Year Jimmer Fredette. Five of the 12 now have the BYU star going to the Jazz at No. 12, but he still only lands in the lottery in six of the 12 mock drafts and NBA.com's David Aldridge has him going No. 30.

    • Only five players now appear on all 12 mock drafts: Irving, Williams, Kanter, Brandon Knight and Alec Burks. Valanciunas was on all 12, but as mentioned above, was dropped to No. 18 by HoopsWorld.

    http://www.nba.com/2011/news/features/05/18/consensus.mock.draft/index.html
     
  2. jason bourne

    jason bourne JBB JustBBall Member

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    So far, I like Kyrie at #1, but think Kanter will move up and could go #2. Kanter has been pretty impressive for a pimply faced kid of 18. He's huge. There has been some talk about trading Monta or Curry for the #2 pick. Still like Jonas Valanciunas.

    I've upgraded Alec Burks, too, and would be happy to grab him at #11. What about Donatas? Any opinions?
     
  3. Run BJM

    Run BJM Heavy lies the crown. Staff Member Global Moderator

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    Purely going off of youtube vids I wasn't that impressed by Kanter BUT the praise for him seems pretty strong and widely held. Apparently Kanter had tremendous back pain during the Nike Hoop Summit which made him look worse athletically than he really is. He had absolutely no left hand in that vid and would make awkward finishes when a player with an adequate off hand would have finished properly (that was over a year ago as a 17 or 18 year old though). I've seen a couple clips of him doing workouts from the past few weeks and he looks more athletic but still not that explosive. Plus its one thing to sky for rebounds and dunks in an empty gym and its quite another to have the explosiveness to do it among traffic and contact. He seems a legit 6'11 in shoes and 260 lbs. He can play C but I don't see him being a good defender or a deterrent in the paint. I know PF/C are often interchangeable in the league but hes kind of a PF/C tweener. He's a below the rim guy which good C's can get away with most of those are 7'0-7'1. At PF though he would seem slow. Wish I could see more extended footage of the guy because I'm not sure what to make of him. Its interesting that reports had several teams (about 5-7 IIRC) with Valanciunas ranked ahead of him.

    And speaking of Valancuinas I don't think he looks very impressive either. Hes tall and very long and not a total stiff but also not that athletic. Kind of herky jerky looking or robotic. Not that skilled offensively. Should be a decent shot blocking presence. Who knows if he can put on weight, he looks like a string bean right now. Again, wish I could see more of him.

    I have been impressed by what I've seen of Donatas Monteijunas. Total package scoring the ball- good stroke out to the 3 pt line, can drive on slower PF/Cs, can face up, scores in the post. The dude is smooooooothe. Total opposite of Valancuinas in that regard. Hes another guy who is 6'11-7'0 and long, pretty damn thin right now. Of course there are reasons why hes ranked below all the other Euros- outside of scoring he doesn't give you what you want in a big. Poor rebounding and defense, very thin. Which is what we REALLY need on the Warriors. That said this dude's offensive game is pretty fucking impressive. Possibly better than Derrick Williams' offensive skillset. And he's a 7 footer. If you draft him you'd be happy with Andrea Bargnani or Brook Lopez type of a player but IMO its not out of the question that he puts on weight and could be like a Rasheed Wallace (less defense but I'm referencing Sheed's well rounded offensive skillset). I know this is not at all the type of player we need. But that offensive game is very impressive and could be special. The type of scoring game we pine for from a big man.

    And I never saw Alec Burk's play but he sounds damn good to me. I was watching a youtube vid breaking down his game and he drives left and right almost the same % of the time and is successful on both sides. Seems like hes very, very good at penetrating. Jumpshot is poor. Good size and pretty solid athlete. Also rebounds well. If hes there at 11 I'd take him and run.
     
  4. jason bourne

    jason bourne JBB JustBBall Member

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    I see your point about Kanter as a C. It could be hype about him moving up to #2. He could be more PF/C and he won't be an intimidator inside the paint.

    I saw Kanter in the Nike Summit, Tim Grover's, Stoneridge and Kentucky video. I also compared him to Blake Griffin's workout. He doesn't have collegiate experience (ruled ineligible for taking $33 K) which hurts him. He's not a specimen C, but he's got bulk compared to Jonas or Donatas. I also like the way he uses his body and positioning. He's got great hands and is a skilled player, not an athletic one. At the next level, he'll have to bang and block out better. Something Kentucky would have taught him.

    [video=youtube;Dvko4VUYuKQ]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dvko4VUYuKQ&feature=related[/video]

    As for age:
    By the way, regarding the real birthdate of Kanter-- a subject of controversy considering that he looks mature way beyond his age-- someone pointed to me his place of birth: it has to be pretty difficult to play with your birthdate in Zurich, Switzerland.

    http://www.draftexpress.com/article/U-18-European-Championship-From-a-Distance-2980/
     
  5. Clif10

    Clif10 Member

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    Can we expect to get somebody that will be able to contribute in the upcoming season from this draft? There sure are a lot of international players, which seems to be very hit-or-miss, and perhaps long term project types.

    I was just looking at Burk's profile. I liked that he could get to the line and rebounded well as a guard. But then they mentioned his defense. It looks like he learned his defense from the Warriors. Lots of reaching and fouling, and points to the opposing guard. We do not need anymore players like that.
     
    Last edited: May 30, 2011
  6. Run BJM

    Run BJM Heavy lies the crown. Staff Member Global Moderator

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    Warriors working out 6 players tomorrow:
    http://www.csnbayarea.com/05/30/11/..._steinmetz_v3.html?blockID=530376&feedID=5986

    SINGLETON! lol I think Jordan Hamilton is the only other player projected around where we pick.
     
  7. Custodianrules2

    Custodianrules2 Cohan + Rowell = Suck

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    Trading Curry? That's crazy talk. Not for Kanter! If there is ever an Ellis for Kanter, the warriors front office better know what they're doing because Ellis is a pretty reliable scoring asset. We lose him, that 20 odd points per game will be hard to replace. It was even hard to get a "franchise" player like Jrich to get above the 18ppg mark because the guy couldn't hit free throws or initiate the offense.

    I kind of like that Donatas prospect that might be available for whatever draft pos we end up getting. He's got a lot of skills and he's pretty tall and athletic looking. However, I'm not sure he'll be ready for nba level of play. When he's the biggest guy on the floor, his clips showed that he's a banger who can aggressively work his way inside, but yet his draft analysis says he's more like an "Andrea Bargnani" or "Yi Lianjian". I think that means when he's not a man amongst boys in junior level competition, he's a boy amongst men in pro leagues. So if we draft this guy, I think for a long time he's going to get squashed on the glass and get backed down in the post a lot. He'll probably be way below our expectations of getting a Pau Gasol or some Euro low post threat.

    I'd probably say go for a safe pick that fills an immediate need and can be used off the bench. I like balanced players who can help us get better defensively and initiate some offense. So if this means shooting guard or small forward with a good mix of all around play on both sides of the ball, I'll go with Alec Burks if he's available. If we wait too long on this Donatas guy or some other risky pick we lose our window of opportunity with whoever we tried to build around right now (Curry/Ellis/Lee).

    That big three we have is pretty talented, we just need to make one or two of those pieces fit and keep adding more talent. I'd be happy with filling in the gaps with some used centers or holding onto Biedrins for a while. I just don't want a pick to end up like Marco Belinelli or Brandan Wright or Ike Diogu or Patrick O'Bryant or these other countless prospects that took too long for the Warriors to wait on. If he's ready and he's the BAP, he's got more upside than a Todd Fuller, and he fills a need, draft him! Let's get bigger at shooting guard!

    P.S. if I got Donatas mixed up with the other Lithuanian guy Jonas, sorry about that. I swear one of those two was some tall guy beating up these other dudes in the post and the inside footwork looked great!
     
    Last edited: May 31, 2011
  8. Run BJM

    Run BJM Heavy lies the crown. Staff Member Global Moderator

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    Donatas seems like more of a Bargnani but hes got a hell of a skillset and hes pretty damn fluid. Jonas Valancuinas is more of a banger but hes also a string bean and very mechanical. Not as skilled. Looks like a Biedrins.

    The thing with the NBA draft is that there are no "safe" picks IMO. Ike was a "safe" pick. Shelden Williams was a "safe" pick. Guys like Beasley, Ricky Rubio, Randy Foye, MDJ were touted as "can't miss" prospects at their draft slots only to become disappointments. I'm weary of leaning toward players based purely on their being "safe" because you want a guy who will produce quickly or who you think is more likely to not be a huge bust. That's how you pick Diogu over Bynum.

    I'm starting to kind of like the 11th pick in this draft. As of right now the guys who seem to be extremely likely to be picked ahead of where we pick are:

    Kyrie Irving
    Kanter
    D. Williams
    Valanciunas
    Brandon Knight
    Veseley
    Leonard
    Kemba

    That's 8 slots right there. The next tier includes the following players:

    Alec Burks
    Marcus Morris
    Bismack Biyombo
    Donatas Monteijunas
    Tristian Thompson
    Markeiff Morris

    Burks and Biyombo are the jewels of that group if I had to make a random guess based purely on online scouting reports and youtube vids. DX and nbadraft.net both have Marcus Morris going 9th to Charlotte meaning one of those two would slip to us. Even if Burks and Biyombo go 9-10 I wouldn't be upset with T. Thompson or Monteijunas. They're both projects but pretty good potential for both. I'm not a big fan of the Morris's. Marcus is quite a well rounded scorer but measured out as a combo forward. Markeiff seems too small to play C even though hes a defensive role player. Neither one is much of an athlete.

    Of course Chris Singleton would also be there but consensus of mock drafts seems to have him going mid-late first round. Fredette should be there and could be valuable in a trade if a team needing a PG is high on him.
     
  9. Custodianrules2

    Custodianrules2 Cohan + Rowell = Suck

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    Actually I would have weighed Granger/Bynum as being higher than Ike simply because Granger was an athletic point forward and you can't teach size and mismatch potential with basic center skill with Andrew Bynum. Also, when it was revealed that Ike Diogu was something like 6'6" without shoes and smaller/less athletic than Elton Brand, one would wonder how this guy could do any damage at that size. I do like Ike Diogu's low post game though, but his potential for mismatch is not there compared to Granger or Bynum who also have skills and would have been better picks because you know they at least have some game or more.

    The pick I failed hard on was Gerald Green. That guy didn't do jack.
     
  10. Zhone

    Zhone JBB JustBBall Member

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    As far as the '05 draft, I think that Ike was actually a risk. He had put up good numbers in college but most scouts were surprised at the pick being so high. I remember back when Rerem basically had to convince all of us that he was great, when at the start all of us were quite skeptical that he'd translate into the NBA, although I admit I was totally against Bynum as well (and excepting that injury history, he turned out fine). And as far as Green, his work ethic or lack thereof was what killed his own chances. He had all the ability, but was eternally lost on defense and even on offense.

    So the short lesson is, even people who watch alot of basketball can be totally wrong in the draft, since sometimes it really is just a lottery.

    That doesn't make it less fun to try to evaluate these guys, though. In this case my opinion is somewhat close to Run's. Of the guys we're likely to see at #11, I like Burks. He's got a smoothness to his game that has a pretty good precedent for making good wings in the NBA. Like Clif and scouts noticed, he has to work on his mental choices on defense, but I think it's something that can be fixed. I think Tristan Thompson has a chance to develop into a decent player as well, just based on size and his knack for getting to the ball, he has to work on all the other fundamental skills though. And, I don't like either Morris, as they just seem to small/slow paced for the game to be successful in the long term.
     
    Last edited: Jun 1, 2011
  11. Run BJM

    Run BJM Heavy lies the crown. Staff Member Global Moderator

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    DX now has us taking Klay Thompson even with Burks still on the board. TK mentioned Klay as a name to look out for as well. Guy looks like a Kevin Martin type player. Explosive and versatile scorer. 6'7 and didn't measure out as a great athlete but good shooter and can get to the rack fairly well. I'd worry about a Curry/Klay back court defensively though. Klay is a legit 6'6-6'7 wit a 6'9 wingspan but doesn't seem that athletic.

    Comparing Klay to Burks head to head, their scoring averages were very close. Klay scored 21.6 ppg on 43.6% FGs. Burks scored 20.5 ppg on 46.9% FGs. The key disparity between their scoring averages is in FTAs vs. 3pt FGAs. Klay shoots 7.2 3-point shots per game and hits them at a 39.8% clip while Burks shoots just 2.5 per game and hits at only 29.2%. Burks is truly great at getting to the FT line though. His 7.9 FTAs in 31.4 mpg is better than even Kemba Walker (7.7 FTA in 37.6 mpg) let alone Klay (5.4 FTA in 34.7 mpg). Burks is a 82.5% FT shooter while Klay is slightly better at 83.8%.

    Ultimately they seem like completely different kind of scorers. Burks has poor 3 pt range but is very good at getting to the cup. Klay is a shooter first but capable of penetrating. I personally prefer the guy who gets FTAs since we sorely lack in that area and we've still got Curry/D. Wright/Reggie who are great 3 pt shooters.

    Klay may be the more well rounded player though. Burks averaged a decent 2.9 apg but not that impressive considering he seemed to have the ball A LOT. Klay averaged 3.7 apg. Both turned the ball over nearly as much as they assisted (2.6 for Burks, 3.4 for Klay). Burks grabbed 6.5 boards compared to Klay's 5.2, again, keep in mind Burks also played 3 fewer minutes per game. I can't speak about their defense since its something you have to watch but Burks' 1.1 spg and 0.3 bpg are pretty unimpressive and hes considered a poor defender. Klay got 1.6 spg and 0.9 bpg, perhaps hes got the edge defensively?

    And as for measurements Burks is an even 6'5 without shoes and 6'6 with shoes. Klay was 6'5.75 w/o shoes and 6'7.25 with shoes. Burks has a slightly larger wingspan at 6'10 compared to Klay's 6'9 but both had a 8'7.5 standing reach. Klay has a poor vertical- 26.5" no step vert and 31.5 max vert. That's an inch and a half less than Freddette for both measurements. Burks was quite solid but not great with his vert coming in at 29 inches no-step and 36 max. Burks also measured out slightly quicker and faster, both put up 5 reps on the bench press. Klay is 13 lbs. heavier at 206 lbs.- he'd likely be fine at SF for stretches while Burks would be pretty light to play SF at 193 lbs. I will say though that just from watching highlights Burks doesn't look all that explosive and Klay seems a bit more athletic than these numbers may suggest.

    With Monta potentially on the way out I'd probably lean toward Burks who gets into the paint and gets FTs. Also a superior rebounder. All accounts say hes not much of a defender but hes got the athleticism to be a good defender if we jut get a coach to get him to play disciplined. The lack of shooting is a bit of an issue as the NBA seems to be becoming a league of at least 4 shooters on the floor at a time but given that Curry and Wright are plus shooters and suspect at penetrating I'll take my chances with Burks and hopes he improves his shot. Furthermore, Burks is going not quite 20 yet and Klay is already 21.

    I do wonder how Burks translate to the next level though. Its one things to run circles around guys in the Big 12 and another in the NBA. He won't have a jumpshot to open up the drive for him and I'm not sure that he'll still be able to get into the paint without a J like a young Wade, Monta, etc. and although hes a solid athlete hes not as explosive as those guys either. Klay is less of a penetrator/FT shooter but he seems like a damn good shooter from range spotting up, off the dribble, or off of screens. Does Burks need the ball to be effective? If we're letting Curry run the how then perhaps Klay would be a better match playing off of Steph. Then again its nice to have multiple guys who can create with the ball in their hands...
     
    Last edited: Jun 1, 2011
  12. jason bourne

    jason bourne JBB JustBBall Member

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    I am "intrigued" in getting the #2 pick and grabbing Jonas Valanciunas.

    As of now, the best C in the draft looks like Jonas Valanciunas. The guy has got a great motor. You can't teach motor. That's why he gets so many shots inside and can block shots. He can play some defense, get to the line and shoot and make FTs. He's got a build like Biedrins and weighs 240 lbs, but he's 6-11 in socks and has a 7-6 wingspan. He's got a build that can put on more muscle. His weakness is to develop an outside shot in order to keep defenses from packing the paint and being too physical with him.

    [video=youtube;zLa5yFCF6Go]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zLa5yFCF6Go[/video]

    Trading Monta Ellis to Minnesota for the #2, Kevin Love (2 yrs $3.6 M) and Martell Webster (bad contract 3 yrs $4.8 M) would work. Minnesota has stated that the team has to take back a bad contract.

    If we can't work a deal, then two other guys to look at would be Bismack Biyombo and Marcus Morris. Biyombo is a banger and looks like he can fill up the paint despite Biyombo being around 6-9. He's got a 7-7 wingspan. His red flag is his rawness and he could be older than listed. There were some rumors he was actually four years older. He's more of a defensive player, shot blocker and rebounder than an offensive threat. Morris seems solid, but he's on the short side. Think Antawn Jamison.
     
    Last edited: Jun 2, 2011
  13. Run BJM

    Run BJM Heavy lies the crown. Staff Member Global Moderator

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    Chad Ford and Tim Kawakami seem to believe that Jerry West is a Klay Thompson fan.

    http://twitter.com/#!/chadfordinsider

    Ford thinks Klay is raising his stock into the lottery.
     
  14. jason bourne

    jason bourne JBB JustBBall Member

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  15. Zhone

    Zhone JBB JustBBall Member

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    Thompson is definitely a great shooter would be great in the role we've already got Wright in. Although he's not even the best shooter in the draft as far as range and percentage combined, he uses craftiness and recognizes his matchups, which is why he can get his shot off decently in the spots he wants. I was also surprised by his defensive numbers considering he's only average athletically.

    I feel that Burks could be a much better player if he can make his jump shot consistent, but right now that is what's holding him back, since as mentioned, better defenders in the NBA can shut down his penetration game unless he learns to do it off the ball and make smart cuts to the basket like Ronnie Brewer, and even then, guys like that usually earn their minutes on their defensive edge which Burks currently also lacks.

    It's a tough call with neither guy really standing out for me, nor anyone else in the draft.
     
  16. BigVolcano

    BigVolcano Moderator Staff Member Moderator

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    There's no way Jonas goes top three. He will however be available at the 4 or 5. Cleveland may way Ellis as he is a star that they can sell to their fan base and may be a good fit with Kyrie who's more of a play maker. I (the raptors) would also be interested (if Kanter and Knight are gone) in trading down to 11th (with incentive of course).
     
  17. jason bourne

    jason bourne JBB JustBBall Member

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    I'm not sure Jonas will drop beyond #4. The Cavs have said they'll draft Jonas and have him as #1 center. I don't think it's a smoke screen. However, someone else could move up to their liking, but you figure they want a center after drafting Irving, so think it's Jonas or maybe Kanter. Leonard could move up or Derrick Williams could fall, so I don't know what the Cavs will do then.

    I had Jonas #2 because I wanted to be sure to draft him in case he moves up. I'm not sold on Derrick Williams, Walker or Knight. It doesn't mean they can't move up either. Derrick Williams is consensus #2, so Warriors may not need that high a pick to get Jonas. I'm not sure if Utah or Cleveland would go for Ellis. I have not heard anything of interest from them. If Toronto is interested in Ellis, then if Jonas or Kanter is there, then maybe a deal can be worked out.
     
  18. jason bourne

    jason bourne JBB JustBBall Member

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    It seems like you've done your homework. Funny, I don't make my picks that way. There are guys I eliminate right off the bat and Thompson was one of them. I don't think I usually miss on those. However, if there is someone I overlooked, then I will listen to someone who is excited about him. I didn't rave about Burks, but hearing more about him made me warm up to him -- rebounder, good ball handler and passer, gets to the line, size, speed and skills. I got Burks over Donatas now and have dropped Donatas.
     
    Last edited: Jun 4, 2011
  19. Custodianrules2

    Custodianrules2 Cohan + Rowell = Suck

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    Very informative post, run. It seems hard to choose between the two because it's a bit of a crap shoot on determining how this will all translate to the nba. I thought Burks would be the better guys in terms of potential because he's only 19. And we all know the one thing about drafts is that you have to pick the best guy available on the board and don't necessarily draft for need.
     
  20. Custodianrules2

    Custodianrules2 Cohan + Rowell = Suck

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    Kanter would be the guy I'd want, but I'm not sure if his knees are going to be a problem like Greg Oden was for Portland.
     

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