Transplant on the new CBA

Discussion in 'Chicago Bulls' started by such sweet thunder, Nov 29, 2011.

  1. such sweet thunder

    such sweet thunder Member Staff Member Moderator

    Joined:
    Nov 8, 2007
    Messages:
    3,509
    Likes Received:
    78
    Trophy Points:
    48
    One of the most interesting things I've read about the impact of the new CBA is from a post by Transplant at RealGM. I was curious to hear what everyone here thought of it.

    Says transplant:

    If we were to take a step back and look at our franchise during the GarPaxson there are a couple of themes:

    (1) The Bulls managements' best performance characteristics are a reliance on stability and aiming long-term. By this I mean that I've never been under the impression that, since Krause was fired, management has looked to or needed to pull a rabbit from a hat. The Bulls have partially built the team in the case of Asik by drafting players that could not join the franchise immediately, and it's best non-roster asset, the pick from Charlotte, was a trade that netted the Bulls something of value for a player who didn't have value, because the Bulls had the patience to wait a couple of seasons.

    (2) Bulls management has shown to be above average evaluators of talent in both Europe and college. Taj Gibson was a great pick. Johnson wasn't but the Bulls quickly moved him for value. Sonny Weams, Aaron Gray and Joakim Noah were all good picks. The 2006 draft of Tyrus Thomas was a disaster largely because the Bulls deviated form their previous strategy and chased potential. Thabo Sefolosha was a decent pick. Ben Gordon and Luol Deng were good picks. There are no unmitigated home runs there, but the team has clearly performed above average over a series of many years. I also think we have to look at Andres Nocioni who was a very nice vet European signing, especially considered the contract.

    (3) Chicago is not a destination city. The Bulls have always been a franchise that players would play for but never a destination like New York, LA, Miami or even Orlando.

    (4) Reinsdorf has shown the willingness to make smart investments, but an unwillingness to go over the cap. We have to remember that Reinsdorf ponied up 3 million dollars to steal Deng from the Suns who were trying to save quick money to sign Quentin Richardson. Yes that Qentin Richardson. I think this is probably the best Bulls move in the past decade or so, and the epitome of a moneyball mentality.

    (5) Spending money and roster turnover don't guarantee a championship. The Dallas Mavericks won last year with new faces and turnover, but there have been just as many franchises, Orlando and Cleveland come to mind, that were decimated by a GM chasing shiny additions each season.

    *****************

    What I draw from these themes is that the Bulls can continue to compete for many years provided that Jerry Reinsdorf is willing to pay some luxury tax next season, when the CBA is still using a dollar-for-dollar tax. The Bulls have used for the last decade the mentality that is needed to thrive under the new CBA -- an emphasis on value and production from the draft and free agency.

    The Bulls really only have two contracts that are potentially of immediate concern. Luol Deng is a overpaid, but nowhere near a crippling amount, and his contract only runs for three more years. Boozer contract is concerning but again, he was having a good season before he was injured. I'm waiting to see how he rebounds. The Noah contract could be considered potentially worrisome given its length, but you still have to over pay for big men and his contact is definitely not outsized at this point. The roster is almost more notable for what it doesn't contain -- an albatross contact that would force some kind of transaction in which the Bulls received little value in return.

    So it really comes down to the 2012-2013 season when the Bulls will have about 59 million locked up on six players (Rose, Boozer, Deng, Noah, Gibson and Butler). Asik will be an unrestricted free agent and the Bulls will only have around 11 million dollars to fill six roster spots. If Asik were to require an eight or nine million dollar contract, which is perfectly reasonable, the Bulls would have to reach in to the tax to retain him.

    *************

    So back to the main question. Will the Bulls try to retain all three of Gibson, Asik and Boozer. Is Reinsdorf willing to pay a dollar-upon-dollar tax for a season? Will the Bulls move one or both of them for a starting two guard and financial freedom?

    What say yee?
     
  2. Good Hope

    Good Hope Active Member

    Joined:
    Sep 8, 2010
    Messages:
    1,197
    Likes Received:
    3
    Trophy Points:
    38
    Occupation:
    Professor
    Location:
    South of Good Hope
    I say Reinsdorf overreaches, like he did in signing Albert Belle after the work stoppage in 199? put a halt to the Sox championship drive.

    He'll keep the bigs, AND sign a big shooting guard.

    KC wrote today about playing CJ next to Derrick -- yuck.
     
  3. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

    Joined:
    May 24, 2007
    Messages:
    72,957
    Likes Received:
    10,620
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    Never lost a case
    Location:
    Boston Legal
    I remember Phoenix was trying to get the cap space to sign Steve Nash, not particularly QRich. Nash won the MVP his first season with Phoenix, which was also Deng's rookie season.
     
  4. transplant

    transplant Global Moderator Staff Member Global Moderator

    Joined:
    Jan 6, 2011
    Messages:
    4,111
    Likes Received:
    210
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Imagine my surprise when I checked in and saw this thread title. :)

    SST, I definitely found your reaction to my post more interesting than my post.

    Some context to what I posted. Over at RealGM, some of the most influential posters are seriously bent out of shape because the new "Rose Rule" adds about $3-4mil of salary over their earlier projections, making it considerably tougher (probably impossible) to keep the team together without paying some luxury tax. Many then took what I found to be an unnecessary leap, laying out multiple scenarios that resulted in no tax being paid. The problem with all these scenarios is that they damaged the team's defense and depth, two of the key reasons the Bulls are a contender.

    Of course all the excitement is caused by the fact that Reinsdorf has never paid the tax and that, in year 3 of the new agreement, the tax significantly increases. It seems that for most, this translates to "Reinsdorf will never pay any tax." I've never believed this, so I'm more sanguine.

    This isn't to say that all the Bulls' rotation players will be retained. If the Bulls pick up a SG that can start and finish games, Korver or Brewer would likely be gone. If a healthy Boozer isn't clearly better than the Boozer we saw late last season, alternatives will be explored. When Mirotic is ready to come over, that's one PF too many.

    But I don't believe the Bulls will jeopardize their current elite status to avoid paying the tax.

    SST, if it helps you any, I think the "Arenas Rule" still applies in the new CBA which means that the most another team can offer Asik in year 1 is the average league salary (note: the Mid-Level Exception amount used to be tied to the average salary, but this is no longer the case...it's a flat $5mil. I'm not sure if the Arenas # is the average or the $5mil).
    http://members.cox.net/lmcoon/salarycap.htm#Q38
     
    Last edited: Nov 29, 2011
  5. such sweet thunder

    such sweet thunder Member Staff Member Moderator

    Joined:
    Nov 8, 2007
    Messages:
    3,509
    Likes Received:
    78
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Thanks Transplant. Yeah, I later figured that out Asik's agreement works on the standard second round pick scale. The Arenas rule is bizarre, isn't it? It sets up a max agreement with a year at 5.0 million, a year at 5.4 million and then it jumps to 13.907 million, $14.867 million and $15.826 million. The structure of the rule actually works relatively well with the Bulls' salary structure.
     
  6. such sweet thunder

    such sweet thunder Member Staff Member Moderator

    Joined:
    Nov 8, 2007
    Messages:
    3,509
    Likes Received:
    78
    Trophy Points:
    48
    As to the substance of your post, I'm not convinced Reinsdorf will pay the tax and try to acquire a starting shooting guard via free agency. The options available, really just Jason Richardson, are not what I would consider to be a huge upgrade. I know Richardson puts up decent stats but I've never trusted him. I'll bet the Bulls bring back Bogans and continue to work trade avenues for Asik and Gibson -- especially if the new CBA allows teams to contribute more to an escape clause for Mirotic. I think the Bulls missed an opportunity when Stephen Jackson became available, but it sounds like he didn't want to move from Charlotte to begin with.
     
  7. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

    Joined:
    May 24, 2007
    Messages:
    72,957
    Likes Received:
    10,620
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    Never lost a case
    Location:
    Boston Legal
    My prediction is that as long as the Bulls can avoid the tax, they will.

    If they signed a JRich, they'd likely trade one of their excess guards.

    They will use the amnesty cut on Boozer, but not this season. It'd make sense when he's 32 or 33 and still has years left, and the Bulls could use some fraction of his salary to pay someone else. It'd be sorta like paying a $.50 luxury tax when the real tax is $2.
     
  8. transplant

    transplant Global Moderator Staff Member Global Moderator

    Joined:
    Jan 6, 2011
    Messages:
    4,111
    Likes Received:
    210
    Trophy Points:
    63
    As opposed to trying to find a way to pay the tax? With the new "competitive" penalties associated with the luxury tax, it makes even more sense to avoid the tax if you can.

    And they should. That's what "excess" means.
     
  9. Good Hope

    Good Hope Active Member

    Joined:
    Sep 8, 2010
    Messages:
    1,197
    Likes Received:
    3
    Trophy Points:
    38
    Occupation:
    Professor
    Location:
    South of Good Hope
    "Why would we need so many guards?"

    As Mrs. Potato Head said to Mr. Potato Head, "You never know!"
     
  10. FatJerry

    FatJerry Member

    Joined:
    Jun 29, 2010
    Messages:
    687
    Likes Received:
    7
    Trophy Points:
    18
    I hope The Chairman overreaches

    It's about time the fans got a reach around
     

Share This Page