This came up in the Batum thread, and it got me curious to find some stats. Multiple posters bemoaned Nate's lack of in-game adjustments, so I decided to try and find out the truth. Here is Portland's second-half average scoring margin this season, along with their NBA rank through 12 games 2011-12 +5.5 (2nd) http://www.teamrankings.com/nba/stat/average-2nd-half-margin So, at least this year, it appears that somebody is making some second half adjustments. For 2010, the Blazers were at -0.3, which is basically middle of the pack.
Since the site says our 1st half margin is -2.6, the change from half to half is +8.1. I can think of 2 reasons now and maybe more later. The cause might be that we dig a hole in the 1st half and we're a better team than that, so our 1st half weakness forces us to be a strong 2nd half team. In a compressed season, players are tired in the second half of each game. Since we supposedly have better depth than the average team, that depth (even if it hasn't improved from last season) should provide us with more late-game margin this year than last year.
My favorite thing about threads like these, which fly directly in the face of board CW, is how often they are ignored by those who criticize the coach.
Portland is still #1 in the NBA in 2nd-half margin. http://www.teamrankings.com/nba/stat/average-2nd-half-margin
I've noticed the defense really picks up in the second half, but it's usually in spurts. It's usually when they put Batum on the ballhandler, or whoever, and they start pressuring the ball up front. I noticed in the Miami game that that's how Miami plays defense like for all 48 minutes - swarming, fast rotations, high energy. Too bad we can't have that energy when we're not down by 15, and too bad we don't have a freak of nature as a free safety (James), but still it looks like just a question of energy at times.
Nice work, PapaG. That's a good job of actually investigating a specific claim to see whether it bears out in reality or not.
What are "Nate" and "second half adjustments"? I've never heard those two things in the same sentence before....
Somebody better get on Scotty Brooks' case, then, because he had Westbrook and Durant still in this game up by 14 points with :46 left! :MARIS61: http://espn.go.com/nba/playbyplay?gameId=320223025&period=4 Uh oh! Erik Spoelstra should be fired for keeping in LeBron James and Dwyane Wade with the Heat up 14 against the Blazers with 3 minutes left in the game! He didn't even pull them when they were up 16 with under a minute left. Wut a dumdum he is! http://espn.go.com/nba/playbyplay?gameId=320301022&period=4
It's more important for me to know what you think about it than what any stats may show us. What's your gut telling you about Nate's mindset today?
They are ignored b\c these stats when looked\offered "solely" as evidence as you like to present them are full of shit... According to all your statistics POR should be one of the better NBA teams and they clearly aren't....That one pesky statistic (W\L record) keeps fucking things up, doesn't it? Maybe Allen should take your stats and inquire to the NBA why he doesn't have a better record? I am sure David Stern would make amends.....
Actually, second-half scoring margin is a pretty good measurement for assessing if a coach makes adjustments during a game. W/L doesn't really factor into that argument. A winning coach can be bad at in-game adjustments, and a bad coach can be great at it. That said, of the Top 14 teams on the list, every single one except Portland is in the playoffs right now. 1 Portland +4.3 -1.0 +4.0 +7.0 +1.0 -0.4 2 Chicago +3.5 +13.7 +21.0 +5.0 +2.3 +4.2 3 Indiana +3.4 -3.3 -21.0 +4.1 +2.8 -1.4 4 Boston +2.8 +3.3 +5.0 +4.6 0.0 +2.7 5 Minnesota +2.7 -1.0 0.0 +2.1 +3.4 -2.8 6 Philadelphia +2.7 0.0 -8.0 +4.2 +0.7 +0.3 7 Miami +1.9 +3.3 +2.0 +5.9 -1.6 +2.4 8 San Antonio +1.5 +6.7 -1.0 +7.6 -3.6 +2.2 9 Memphis +1.5 +13.7 +18.0 +4.2 -1.8 +2.9 10 LA Lakers +1.1 +4.0 -2.0 +3.3 -1.2 +1.0 11 Atlanta +1.0 +8.3 +1.0 +2.7 -0.5 -0.8 12 Orlando +1.0 +2.7 -1.0 0.0 +2.0 +2.0 13 New York +0.8 +4.7 -5.0 +0.9 +0.5 -0.2 14 Okla City +0.7 So, you can have your half-assed opinion, based on pretty much nothing, or you can try to use data to support your argument. If anything, Nate needs to do a better job coaching in the first-half, and stop relying on adjustments at half-time.
I think that there's some truth to that. So many games this year have been lost by the team coming out flat and getting hit hard in the first quarter. I don't know if it's coaching or just something weird in the mental makeup of this team. Maybe hitting them in the butt with a cattle prod as they head out onto the court? Nice analysis.
In what way can you possibly claim that his trivial little statistic proves that McMillan is good at making adjustments? Obviously, it only proves how desperately we are forced to make comebacks in vain, after opponents have thrashed us so hard that they ease up in the 2nd half and cruise to victory, giving away pity points. You are a sucker for Papa's minimalist stats.
You could take this same stat and argue that Nate is lousy at getting teams prepared for games. After all, if we do so well in second halves and are still losing, it must be bad first halves that kill the team. Which kind of goes with the whole "he's lost the team" argument. Guys don't show up focused and believing in the system. They yawn at the same old "scrap" line. Maybe it's only pride, not great coaching, that wakes them up at half time to the realization that they are getting embarrassed.
Your data is for shit....POR ranks 1st in 2nd half scoring margin...bfd....but sits outside the playoffs...You use this as proof\evidence that Nate is a good 2nd half coach...therefore a good coach...See! Suck it Nate haters! and completely ignore that um...hmm...maybe there could be other factors? Maybe other teams get up on POR and slack off a little? So does Nate get a pass for shitty coaching in the 1st half. You can't have it both ways....Or maybe you'll show me data about how POR ranks among the best at 1st half scoring margin teams as well...which begs the question of that pesky W\L record, that apparently to you is of no\minor concern...Nobody cares about that, right? Oh and OKC must really suck or something, lucky to make the playoffs.... You are like the scientist that looks around bewildered while the cautastophic earthquake destroys everything around him and mumbles "but the data said this wasn't supposed to happen"... Look data is important, but it just one aspect of judging a team's performance, and not the definitive proof that you would have people believe...
