Two Sports Forum: 2012 NCAA Men’s Basketball

Discussion in 'Men's College Basketball' started by UncleRico, Mar 9, 2012.

  1. UncleRico

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    Who Will Be The Surprise Team In The NCAA Tournament?

    Sports betting experts and college basketball betting experts are preparing to break down a lot of brackets on the evening of Sunday, March 11, which is known to college basketball fans this year as Selection Sunday, that magical day when the 68 teams are announced for the 2012 NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball Tournament.

    If you want to make a sports bet on the NCAA Tournament, the seedings certainly play a part in shaping the proceedings. This is why it’s important to pay attention to the seeds on Selection Sunday. However, as a word of caution, it’s also important to account for the draws. Basketball is a sport of matchups, especially so at the collegiate level, since this is a knockout tournament and not the best-of-seven-series festival known as the NBA Playoffs. Moreover, the NCAA Tournament is a neutral-site tournament, meaning that teams will get placed in different regions. Sometimes, a No. 1 seed in a remote geographical region is worse than getting a No. 2 seed in a geographically proximate location. Another thing to watch for is this: Does a team get seeded fifth or sixth? Being placed on the 5-seed line means that a team will likely have to beat a No. 1 seed in the Sweet 16 round – otherwise known as the regional semifinals – in order to advance in the tournament. Being placed on the 6-seed line means that a team can avoid the top seed until the Elite 8 round, otherwise known as the regional final. The sixth seed is actually more advantageous than the fifth seed under this bracketing system.

    Along a very similar line of analysis, the No. 10 and No. 11 seeds are better than the No. 8 and 9 seeds. Why? It goes back to the notion of having the right draw and the easier path. A No. 8 or 9 seed must play the top seed in the round of 32. Since no top seed has ever lost in the round of 64, it’s a near certainty that the winner of the 8-versus-9 game will have to play the No. 1 seed on the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament. That’s a terrible draw. It’s much better to be the 10 seed or (even better) the 11 seed, because that path through a bracket can avoid a top seed until the Elite 8, possibly long enough that the No. 1 seed gets upset by a fourth or fifth seed in the regional semifinals.

    Here, then, are some teams to keep an eye on before the brackets are announced:

    Wichita State – The Shockers are balanced. They can play any tempo or style. They don’t have any substantial weaknesses, but are not as quick or as deep as some of the very best teams in the field. However, the extended duration of television timeouts gives teams an extra amount of rest in the NCAA Tournament, so that might not matter much.

    New Mexico – The Lobos wilted a little bit near the end of the season, losing twice on the road. However, the Mountain West Conference was a very hard league for road teams throughout the season. On neutral courts, New Mexico could be a force thanks to Drew Gordon, who scored 27 points and grabbed 20 rebounds in a late-season win over UNLV.

    Murray State – This is not a team that makes life comfortable for opponents. The Racers are relentless on defense, and they possess agile shotmaking guards who can create opportunities for themselves. Murray State very nearly beat Butler in 2010, when Butler reached the national championship game.
     

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