The Blazers are clearly in full rebuilding mode, finally. As a Bulls fan who watched my team wander in the wilderness for 13 seasons, much of what management talked about (and still does) is cap space and financial flexibility. A lot of losing teams on the court, then a lot of teams making 1st round exits. Expiring contracts are how you roll over your cap space from this season to next. This summer's FA crop may not be very good at all. It would be foolish to blow it all on long-term deals for guys that will help you be mediocre, if you even make the playoffs. Consider the Bulls drafted Kirk Hinrich, then the next season drafted Ben Gordon, Luol Deng and Chris Duhon. Those guys joined a young Crawford, Eddie Curry, and Tyson Chandler. The team was young, talented, and deep. Yet all they did was make 1st round and exit. Much of what they did was to stockpile draft picks over the years. Deng was a pick they bought from Phoenix when they were freeing cap space to sign Nash. Eddie Curry turned into cap filler space players and a draft pick that I think was used on Noah at #9 (#9 is a great spot to pick if you're a playoff team). They really hit the jackpot with lotto fever and got the #2 pick in 2006. With it the Bulls were intent on taking Tyrus Thomas. On draft night, they sneakily drafted LMA and traded him to Portland for Thomas and Viktor. What buffoonery. On the other hand, if they kept LMA, they may have never been in position for lightning to strike and get them the #1 pick two years later, which is DRose. You ultimately need to turn your cap space into star players. You can take on contracts if another team is looking to dump salary, but they're not doing that with DHoward caliber guys - more like GWallace kinds. Not what you want. If and when you pull the trigger with your cap space on FAs and commit long term, a single mistake is going to cost you a decade. You do have LMA, who is an established star. Hopefully in the next few seasons while he is in his prime, you will find the right guys to go with him. BRoy level players are not the norm. You'll likely spend your long term dollars on rookie-scale contracts on guys who aren't that level; it's the cheapest way to have decent talent while not committing big long term bucks on contracts. If and when you draft an LMA and his rookie scale contract needs to be extended, then you consume your cap space long term, as well. Just a heads up. It is not the end of the world if you don't become a contender next season.
On a slightly different thought, I think any team that attempts to become a title contender (except via player collusion, like Miami) makes the biggest mistakes. I like the idea of building a playoff team and not a title contending team unless one can do so via the draft and trades. Use the new England Patriot method. Select players that fit particular roles and build depth. Have 8 solid players and then see what happens in the playoffs. Tinker a bit with chemistry or to fit a certain need and every so often the team may have a deep run. That doesn't take costly free agents- only moderately priced ones. I mean, I get it when people say you have to have 3 stars to win a title, but Dallas did it with only one. We have our PF & SG. One is an all-star. We now have the cap space (especially with Failton leaving) to sign 4 free agents or so that can fill some voids. Try to become a 50 game team and go from there.
Very few expect the Blazers to be able to pull a top-tier free agent. Prevailing wisdom is presently that we should go after Deron Williams, but after that, there are no legitimate cornerstone players available this summer. I think most here would be relatively content to use our lottery picks, pursue Deron, seek a lopsided trade when we don't get him, or otherwise develop our youngsters and hold serve until the 2013 offseason. Unfortunately, most of the fan base will expect some sort of free agent signing, and our cap room will probably end up being used on an Andre-Miller-level player instead of a true difference maker.
With all the cap space we now have, I really like the idea of major run at Williams as well. And in light of the fact Howard isn't leaving for NJ, he has no reason to stay there.
I think deron stays in nj. Just a hunch but I think that he is taking a page from Howard and show loyalty to the franchise trying to go all in with him. I have a feeling we are gonna have 2 top 10 picks in this summers draft. I do like dennys take on how to rebuild, but I truly think we are ahead of schedule. We are only 1-2 years away.
Loyalty doesn't get you shit. Look at Joel, Nene, Fisher, etc. I don't even know how you can consider it loyalty when he's only been with them a season and a half.
Or Kobe, wade and dirk? How about lebron not being loyal? All deron has to have is a no trade clause like Kobe and he will be in the drivers seat with his loyalty.
What I mean is, players shouldn't be loyal....for loyalties sake. Someone like LeBron, yeah going to the Heat was a slap in the face to Cleveland. But ultimately it was probably better for his career.
We're sort of like Chicago was before they dealt away Elton Brand. One great power forward (Brand/Aldridge) and one promising young small forward (Artest/Batum). Some ok role players (Mercer, Fizer, Miller). Oh yeah, and Jamal Crawford. lol That team won 15 games. That was 3 years into their post-Jordan tank job, and a full decade before they won 50 games again. Yikes. Jesus christ I suddenly feel really desperate. Goes to show that nobody goes into tanking with a long-term plan for tanking. Just like no American president goes into war with a long-term plan for war. It's always "just going to take a year or two, at the very most."
Things were a lot different back then, IMO. I suspect things will turn around quickly even this season. Keep in mind that this team, with the exception of Miller did most of the winning last season. Wallace did come in mid season, but it took him nearly 15 games to figure us out. So for the most part, we were able to win more than lose with the roster you just spoke of. Priority #1 is a PG, regardless if its via free-agent, trade or draft. We need a general that can run the offense. Once we find that player, things will get better. Look at what a difference CP3 did for NOLA and Clippers? Hell look at what Rose did for the Bulls. This needs to be our top priority. More than a center and more than filling the roster.
Brand told the team he would leave as a FA so he was traded for the #2 pick which was used on Tyson Chandler. The Bulls had #4 on their own and took Curry. That was a better situation than the Blazers are in now. But Bulls management is fucked. Players hate the owner. We went after TMac, and he played us into his Orlando deal. The only FA who would sign with us was Ron Mercer. Yuk. The Blazers don't have this problem. The team has treated its stars well. Roy and LMA got their deals. Camby was treated well, etc. So I think you're not looking at a decade to rebuild or anything like that. I see posts about how cap space isnt so great because of THIS summer's FA crop, and wanted to point out how the Bulls kept pushing their cap space and flexibility out a year at a time. With ~$30M in cap space, you could sign DWill, 3 FAs like Korver, Watson, and Brewer, and you have some decent draft picks as well. A DWill, LMA, and Batum core could be more than decent. That's two stars.
Hell even if we didn't get D Will, we can go on a plan B and try for Nash or Jennings. Both players can immediately turn things around for us and they would be cheaper than D Will (I seriously think D Will is going to stay in NJ).
Mainly because Im too lazy to look myself but does anyone already know in the best case scenario how much we would have in cap space and could be in that best case scenario have enough to sign say both D-Will and Gordon for example? In other words could we sell Williams by saying that we already have LMA and Batum and we could add both you and Gordon and a high draft pick? Is there a scenario with gives us the cap space to offer a potential line-up of something like: PG: Williams SG: Gordon SF: Batum PF: Sullinger (for example) C: Aldridge Since we are a smaller market is this something that is a possibility that could make us more attractive? I thought I heard the number $27 mil at one point but Im not sure if this accurate or what is gives the option to do.
Looks damn sexy, but isn't Gordon pretty undersized for a SG? I would rather have a bigger guard, but that's just my preference. Also, I worry about Gordon too. Isn't he pretty injury prone?
Looks damn sexy, but isn't Gordon pretty undersized for a SG? I would rather have a bigger guard, but that's just my preference. Also, I worry about Gordon too. Isn't he pretty injury prone?
I agree. I guess that I was thinking how nice it would be to have 3 long range shooters on the floor at once.
I think Deron Williams is a pipe dream.....but POR should at least make an inquiry and offer him $15mil...yes, overpay, big time to try and entice him to come here...play with LA, there is 2, and then sell him that 1 of Batum or (hopefully) 2 top 10 picks in a strong 2012 draft (let's hope it remains that way) turn into that 3rd cog..... Long shot, pipedream, snowball's chance in hell....but you don't know if you don't try..... Unfortunately, what is likely to happen is POR overpaying (read $10mil) for a guy like Aaron Brooks (ugh), George Hill, Goran Dragic or DJ Augustin..... Maybe, you might be able to entice Steve Nash to sign on for 2-3 more years, another pipedream....Offer him $10-12mil....I don't see where that fits with young players\picks, but maybe you could do it.... I don't see ANY centers worth paying $10-12mil...Hibbert, Lopez, Kaman, MCGee, Hawes...all dogs with different fleas IMO....No thanks...Also, draft looks pretty good in big men, especially in lottery, I would say good cahnce POR could end up with a big man via that route rather than vastly overpay a mediocre free agent.... Who else is out there? Eric Gordon? I like him a lot, I just don't see POR paying him $10-12mil, or him necessarily wanting to come to POR.... I like OJ Mayo, but I don't see POR going anywhere near him.... There is Jeremy Lin, but I don't see NY letting him go, and I sure wouldn't want to be the team paying him him big $$$ based on 1 shortened season.... Not a great FA class, so I am not conviced that POR is going to do ANYTHING meaningful with that cap space....There best bet is to use all\part of it in trades to absorb contracts for young players\picks around the draft....Any of the players that POR would have interest in are long long shots IMO, so chance are much greater that it ends up like when they got Andre Miller...had cap space, couldn't get anyone, end up overpaying for a middling player, except this time that player will likely be younger and the contract will likely be bigger...right back where they started.... I have little to no faith in Buchanan & Miller..... and not waiving Felton and dealing Crawford is gong to cost POR 2-4 spots in the 2012 draft, and in this draft, those spots matter a lot more than in other drafts....
Thanks for the Consolation Denny. Yes Dwill is a pipe Dream. Nash however is not. (1) He's from the NW (2) He's tight with LMA (Top 3 PF in the game) (3) With a new look Roster/Coach next year, Nash basically becomes a player coach and gets handed the keys.
As much as I love Batum (he is my favorite player) I am beginning to wonder if we traded him for a good draft pick or a young player still on his rookie deal does the free up more potential cap room and allow us to go after a two bigger FA's and then replace Batum through the draft. I would hate to lose Batum but I wonder if it gives us a chance to be a better overall team and more attractive to a good FA. Not sure how I feel about it but again I think our best sell a top free agent like Williams would be to pair him with LMA and another good FA with promising rookies. I guess I need to look at what other cap friend teams could offer that kind of thing in FA this summer.
Portland doesn't have the same problems as Chicago had in 2001, but it's got its own unique set. Aldridge hasn't demanded a trade like Brand did, but we're only 1 day into the rebuild. If we're a year or two into this and sucking like Chicago was during Brand's time there, we could see similar problems. It's true that Portland has a more well-liked organization among players than Chicago did, but Portland as a city is much less attractive than Chicago to players. Also, our overall decision making is pretty questionable recently. Chicago had a recent history of dynasty. Portland has a recent history of lotteries and first round exits. Chicago made some massive whiffs on draft night, and had tragic luck with Jason Williams ruining his career with a bike wreck. But it's not like Portland hasn't whiffed on guys like Deron Williams and Chris Paul in the draft, and don't even get us started on our own injury history. Past performance is no perfect predictor of future behavior, but it gives one pause. We'll have cash this summer, and I'm hoping we correct the mistake of missing out on Deron. But Chicago had cash too. Year after failing year after failing year. There's a huge temptation in every human mind to think you have the inside angle. You are smarter. You will win blackjack or the lottery while all those other suckers won't. Portland will be the 1998 San Antonio Spurs and fail once and then go on to multiple championships. Portland won't be the 2001 Chicago Bulls. As a Blazer fan, this psychology is what keeps me going. There's always a new, exciting corner to be turned. It's just got to get better. That's just naturally how I approach life, and I think it's the only way to approach life if you ever want to be happy. I'm optimistic right now, as ever. But man, your original post and the thought process it led me down got depressing mighty quick.
