By Kevin Arnovitz | ESPN.com PORTLAND, Ore. -- The evolution from upstart to contender in the NBA occurs on an uncertain timetable, and nobody knows exactly when an aspirational team crosses that invisible boundary. Should we wait until the All-Star break to check the standings? Hold off until a team shows it can head down to Texas and Oklahoma over the course of a week and knock off a couple of heavyweights on the road? Watch and see where it ranks offensively and defensively and take note when both those numbers are single digits? With a typically dramatic 116-112 overtime win over the Los Angeles Clippers on Thursday, the Portland Trail Blazers ran their record to 24-5. That's tops in the NBA -- better than Miami or Indiana in the East, Oklahoma City and San Antonio in the West, and better than a Clippers team Trail Blazers coach Terry Stotts deemed "elite" after the game. Despite victories over the Pacers, Thunder, Spurs, Rockets and now Clippers, and despite banking 12 wins on the road in 15 tries, the Trail Blazers are reluctant to affix that label to themselves. The other four NBA teams in the league playing .750 ball have implicitly or explicitly stated that their goal is to win a championship. But the Trail Blazers continue to be demure about their goals, adopting the ol' chestnut, "Stay in the moment," as their unofficial mantra. AP Photo/Don RyanLaMarcus Aldridge poured in 32 points in the Blazers' overtime win over the Clippers "We're not trying to get too far in front of ourselves," LaMarcus Aldridge said. "If the chips put us in a position to play for a championship, then we'll do it, but we're not going to go off and start making these crazy goals right now. We're staying in the moment, going game to game." Aldridge's reticence is understandable, and not just because he's a comparatively reticent guy. There's something unseemly about a team winning a couple dozen games before New Year's and declaring itself ready for June basketball. Yet there's always the danger of humility becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy. If five or six other squads truly believe the Larry O'Brien Trophy is within their grasp, what possible chance does a team in the scrum stand if it doesn't regard itself as championship-caliber? Aldridge turned in another massive performance Thursday. Despite having his wisdom teeth extracted on Sunday and subsisting on soup for the better part of four days, he continued his reign over the left side of the Moda Center floor. He scored 32 points and collected 10 rebounds in 40 minutes while playing nearly the entire second half with four fouls. Aldridge joked that with 31 shot attempts anyone can find a groove after a couple of forgettable shooting performances before the holiday. Whether he's talking about his team's larger objectives or just a high-volume individual shooting night, Aldridge does self-deprecation well. Center Robin Lopez, Aldridge's counterpart in the frontcourt, was a bit more assertive when asked if the Trail Blazers were "elite." "You could say that, I suppose," Lopez said. "I think we'll be tested in the next few games." Even with an affirmative response, Lopez offered a disclaimer of "I suppose." But like Aldridge, Lopez is cautious for a reason. Two of the Blazers' final three games in 2013 come against Miami and Oklahoma City, the latter on the road. Then, in mid-January, the team plays four games in five nights away from home against San Antonio, Dallas, Houston and Oklahoma City again. The source of the Blazers' restraint isn't their offense. Portland is a team that knows how to score and, feels confident it can find a quality shot in the half court virtually every time down the floor. What's less certain is the Blazers' defense, which is currently ranked 22nd overall in the NBA. For those who doubt whether the Trail Blazers belong in the rarefied air of the elite, this is what they'll reference. Thursday night was another mixed bag for the Portland defense. There were crucial stops down the stretch that inspire hope. Lopez had a valiant moment inside of three minutes of regulation when a hungry Chris Paul got him on an island off a switch. Paul loves nothing more than to attack a hapless 7-footer in open space, yet Lopez survived the encounter as spidery Nicolas Batum flew in from the weak side to swat away Paul's layup attempt. The play was the embodiment of the Trail Blazers' "bend, don't break" defense: Tread water, compete like hell and the length may save you. "In the fourth quarter, it was going back and forth," Stotts said. "I think both teams were good defensively and both teams made good offensive plays. On the whole, look, if we win the game, our defense is better than their defense. That's Mike D'Antoni's line." When shown the iffy overall numbers, the Trail Blazers will say that they get big stops when they need them, pointing to their overwhelming success in close games. There's a fair amount of truth to this. Inside of three minutes leading or trailing by three points, the Trail Blazers have the third-ranked defense in the league, giving up a minuscule 79.8 points per 100 possessions. For the Trail Blazers, the next month is about figuring out whether findings like this one is real or an outlier. Is the prolific jump-shooting really this good, or will percentages catch up to the likes of Wesley Matthews and Damian Lillard? Can the defense truly get a stop when it needs to, or is it tempting fate? Then there's the big one: Forget about the rest of the league and public perception. Are the Trail Blazers ready to come out to themselves as contenders? http://espn.go.com/nba/dailydime/_/page/dime-131226/daily-dime
To me, the only thing that brings us into elite territory is playoff success. If we get to the conference finals then I think we have joined the elite.
I already have my prediction. I said WCF going game seven vs OKC. Whomever wins game seven wins the title.
Their defense has been a weakness but that stat gives hope. If they can do that in the clutch, there is the ability to stretch that out over longer periods. They still don't create many turnovers and the points-in-the-paint number is appalling. But if they can keep games close in the playoffs, the ability to clamp down on defense in the clutch is encouraging.
These were some of the same concerns about the Drexler Blazers. Personally, I'm at a place where I don't need EVERYONE on my bandwagon. There's enough in the national media on it to make me content. Besides, you just can't convince some people unti after you get to the conference finals. One guy used the term "fluke season" which IMHO is a ridiculous concept.
Im not ready to talk about this yet, I would rather just enjoy the moment up till now. Something that worrys me a bit is that we have had a favorable schedule, we are winning the games we should win, but we are getting most of our hard games at home. We have also had a few lucky breaks go our way in games, we could have easily lost 4-5 of the games we won. Sometimes luck is just as important as skill though.
See, it's hard to say that winning the games you're supposed to win is some kind of knock on a team for having a good record. Miami lost to Philly. OKC's first home loss was to Toronto. Shit happens, and the fact that we have pretty much raised up to every occassion shouldn't be a slight, but a strength. If there IS something that is real and tangible, that's the defense. But that stat of 79.3 per 100 possessions inside of 3 minutes is good. Would like it to be more sustainable though throughout the game. This is frickin portland, after all.
I'd like to see similar stats for the first 5 minutes of the 3rd quarter. We do turn on some great defense for short spurts.
To me, when you beat those playoff experienced teams on the road and on back to backs or in overtime, your game speaks for itself. History doesn't always repeat itself.
Can they win 1 playoff series before we start calling this team "elite". With this defense and the chance of going ice cold with all those jumpers it could very easily be another 1 and done. Elite? Give me a break.
I mean winning the games we are suppose to in a good way. In my opinion that's the first step to respectability, while every team has an off night or an amazing night, elite teams take care of the sub .500's at a 90% rate at home or away. In fact in relation to your examples we are actually doing this part better than everyone else, I have not felt terrible about one of our losses this year. I'm not as worried about defense as most but I agree its an area of improvement. We seem to make stops when we need them and with the pace of our offense the other team is going to be moving faster also so they will score more. Your inside 3 minutes stat seems to back that up also. Elite to me means we realistically expect to finish in the top two of the west and make it to WCF at least. We've been beasting as of late but lets see where we are after we get some road games in at OKC, Miami, Indy, SA, Houston etc.
