When I see a “power ranking” with OKC or GS in the top 3 (or Minnesota even in the top 10?!) and Portland not in the top 3, I assume the writer(s) are trolling. Rather than just say they are trolling, I wanted to provide some logic and support that shows it. My theory is that when teams are accurately ranked, their ability to perform on the road and in B2B games on the road says more about their ability to win than any other factors. The counter to that is of course that the playoffs aren’t B2B games, but I still believe it has to be considered in order to draw fair comparisons. The reason to consider the B2B schedule is because it is significant even with less than half the season played. Looking at the schedules compared to over-all record, it appears that some records should be worse, and others should be better all schedules being equal. I only looked at the teams above .500 (plus Miami and Indiana) to illustrated the B2B disparity, and then took that in to consideration when looking at the current standing. Western Conference teams above .500 (+ Miami & Indian) grey = extra info green = cake mode orange = hard red = just turble It would seem obvious that playing a back-to-back has significant disadvantages: fatigue, lack of preparation time, travel. What appears to be the greatest variable is whether that 2nd game of a B2B is played on the road or at home. Over the past decade (give or take a few percent) in the 2nd of a B2B situation, teams win: Road-Home: around 60% of the time Home-Home: around 50% of the time Home-Road: around 40% of the time Road-Road: around 30% win of the time Clearly, road B2Bs are significant, and B2Bs played at home, not so much. If someone looked into the exact, current percentage, that would be interesting, but I just didn’t want to spend the time. Basically, a team should lose just about any B2B on the road, except to the worst teams. And teams, in general, win roughly the same as if it were not a B2B, if played at home. Of course the primary factor for judging success is over-all record, but people want to make it more complicated with “last 10 games”, “strength of schedule”, and a number of other “factors”. I just look at road wins, B2Bs, and margin of victory. The Spurs are a great team, but they definitely benefit from one of the easier schedules of +.500 teams, playing the fewest B2B road games of any Western Conference team (11, tied with Dallas). SA played 11 B2B games thus far (9-2) with 5 of those B2Bs on the road (4-1). Yes, that loss is from the Blazers. While the Spurs have a larger win margin, and a better record, it’s still debatable whether they are better than Portland given that the Minnesota loss Portland incurred on a 4-in-5 is really all that separates their records. Conversely, what’s Dallas’ excuse? They only play 11 B2B games on the road and only 7 where both games of the B2B are on the road. That suggests to me that they are probably worse than their record suggests. I’ve singled out OKC and GS, because there are an above .500 team with the easiest of schedules in terms of B2Bs, and have both been ranked ahead of Portland for one reason or another despite losing every game versus Portland. Portland has and Average Win Margin (AWM), or differential, of +6.19 ● 8-2 in back to back games (AWM: +5.60) ● 4-2 in back to back games (AWM: +0.67) where the other team did not play the 2nd of a back to back ● 0-1 in the 2nd game of the 2nd back to back (4 games 5 nights, both on the road) Most significant, Portland is 5-1 on road B2Bs, with their sole loss to Minn, a virtual guaranteed loss by virtue of it being the 4th road games in 5 nights. OKC has an AWM of +7.00 ● 2-3 in back to back games, the opponent always had a day or more off (AWM: +5.00 or +0.50 excluding the 23 point blowout of Boston @ OKC) ● OKC will play 4 games in 5 nights only one time this season, and only 1 B2B game is on the road Most significant, OKC is 1-2 on road B2Bs. GS has an AWM of +4.92 on the season ● 2-5 in back to back games (AWM: -3.14) ● 2-4 in back to back games (AWM: -0.26) where the other team did not play the 2nd of a back to back ● GS will play 4 games in 5 nights only one time this season, and only 1 B2B game is on the road ● GS played 7 road game in 11 nights and 2 back to backs vs ATL and BKL (1-1) Most significant, GS is 2-4 on road B2Bs. What should be a clear disadvantage to the Blazers is glaring endorsement for how much better the Blazers have been than both OKC and GS - playing and winning more road, and B2B road games. Portland also has 3 “guaranteed” losses on the schedule, the 3 games that end on the road on a 4 game in 5 night road stretch. Phoenix is the only other team that has 2 of those type game scheduled (with every game on the road), and everyone else above .500 has zero. The Blazers have already racked up 1 of those losses in Minnesota, and will play another against OKC on this next road trip. While it won’t cost Portland a playoff spot this season, it could very well cost them the best record in West, if not home-court advantage. Considering all this, and that Portland has a better record than every team in the NBA, save SAS and IND, anyone “ranking” Portland outside of the top 3 up to this point is straight up trolling - as is anyone who has GS ranked in the top 3. Top 2? Someone really needs clicks.
I don't believe that anybody is attempting to discount the Blazers' early-season success, insinuate that their eastern-conference road success (the location of the majority of their road victories to date) was insignificant, or "troll" the Blazers' fan base with their power rankings. What you appear to be failing to account for (note the word "appear"--it matters) is the fact that power rankings are not intended to evaluate the entire season equally, but are generally intended to be weighted toward recent results. As it stands, the Blazers are 6-5 in their last 11, alternating pairs of wins and losses in an odd serpentine fashion, whereas the Warriors have now won 11 of 12, with 7 of those victories on the road (including a win over Miami), and the Spurs have themselves won 9 of 11, including 3 2H B2B wins (2 of those H-R). Really, Miami is the only team ahead of us in Stein's rankings (presumably the basis of your post) for which there doesn't exist a legitimate argument--except the fact that they recently beat the Blazers, without Lebron, in Portland. For the moment, our ranking at 5 is justified.
If that were true, Portland would have been ranked #1 on at least one, if not more than one, occasion this season. (Portland beat OKC, IND, SAS, and had a better road record and the best record in the NBA after OKC lost to Toronto at home... yet they were ranked #1). Feel free to state your opinion, but it's really funny to read, "there doesn't exist a legitimate argument". I just made one whether you agree or not. The fact remains, since the inception of the "power rankings" you referenced (Stein), Portland has never been ranked 1st in any week, ever. I wouldn't argue if it were only about week to week performance, but the reality is, the rankings are week to week for some teams, and they are not for others. Stein specifically determines his rankings by "weighing what we're seeing in the present in equal measure with each team's big-picture outlook." Big picture is what I laid out in my post. My point was more to point out how well the Blazers have done respective to other teams, and that they are at a disadvantage to a majority of the +.500 teams just because of the schedule. That should be very encouraging to Blazer fans. The ranking stuff is just amusing fodder.
BF I don't know why you let it get to you. The power rankings mean nothing. The only time I care about power rankings is during college football, when they actually affect the future of the team. Power rankings for the NBA and NFL are just window dressing to attract attention. The only rankings that matter are the official standings of the NBA.
You're right here. What I had intended to convey (and clearly failed to) was that each of the teams ranked ahead of us have a strong argument to be ahead of us in the power rankings, thereby showing your conclusion of Portland's ranking at 5 as "trolling" to be more than a tad hyperbolic.
I think the ability to win games against elite teams when both teams are rested is the most predictive stat. Much of the home court advantage in the regular season is because teams are rested at home and tired from travel while on the road. Still there should always be a few more wins at home than away. That is worrisome for the Spurs as they've fared poorly against the other elite teams. Back to back records are a terrible predictor because they alter the substitution patterns and role of reserves in a way that will not be applicable to the playoffs.
I don't really care about the ranking. It's just something to poke fun at while droning on about statistics and schedules. It is amusing to me. If someone were to ask "why do you let it bother you", it would be like asking Seinfeld the same thing after he says, "And what's the deal Grape Nuts?!? You open the box, no grapes, not nuts... what's the deal?!?!?" But, I still think ranking GS that high with 14 losses is trolling. The "serious" point I tried to convey is that should the best record in the West, or even home court advantage, come down to 3 games, the schedule alone would account for the difference regardless of how much better or worse a team was.
For the Spurs, I agree that B2B aren't a good predictor. In their case, my argument would simply be that if Portland and SAS ended up with identical records at season's end, I would say Portland was the better team that season by at least 3 games on schedule alone.
If I asked someone every time they told me they didn't like, want, appreciate, enjoy, were bothered by, etc., something, people would think I had the personality of a dead moth. No one gets my sense of humor.
Except, of course, for their 11 wins in 12 games, win in Miami, and falling just short of the NBA's first ever 7-0 road trip. Aside from that, no justification at all...
Who exactly are the nation's sports writers trolling? Portland? The Blazers oraganizations? Blazer fans? One message board poster?
Edit: 15 losses for GS After losing @ Utah (the worst team in the west), Denver play @ GS and wins while giving up 116 points. Hickson 24 rebounds, rest of the team 22. An effort guy will always find a roster spot. Good for Hickson. Great win for Denver.
JJ is gonna get his from time to time..24 rebounds is incredible though! Shout out to JJ! Denver is playing better.
