DraftExpress has us using the bobcats' pick at 16 on Rodney Hood. He's just turned 21, a 6'8" sophomore from Duke who likes to take jump shots and can guard multiple positions. Lu reincarnate? Actually, the scouting report on him isn't very positive. http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Rodney-Hood-5723/ They have the Bulls using their own pick on 20 year old SF Kyle Anderson out of UCLA. He may project to a big PG or point forward. The scouting report says he shot under 30% on jump shots and creates well for his teammates but not for himself. He will fit right in with the "turn games into brick fests and hope we score one more basket than opponents" strategy. He has a 7'2.5" wingspan. http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Kyle-Anderson-6177/
NBADraft.net has us taking Adreain Payne at 16, and Tyler Ennis at 19. Payne seems like a pure PF version of Tyrus. Uber athletic, boneheaded IQ, questionable motor. They say that Ennis could be a superstar. Great ball handler, unselfish passer, deadly outside shot. Not a strong defender. I like these two picks better, though. We really need another PF.
I'm optimistic about this draft overall. It looks like it is NOT 2003, since the guys at the top of the draft don't have franchise altering talent...at least on their rookie contracts. However it does look like it's going to be a 1999 or 2008 draft, where you'll have genuine NBA prospects into the late half of the lottery and the possibility of getting a Serge Ibaka or Ty Lawson after pick #20. I'm still a little rusty on the prospects, but so far am warm towards are Gary Harris and Nicholas Stauskas. Doug McDermott scares me. A lot of fans have the Bulls wanting to pick him but he does not look like an NBA athlete to me. Rodney Hood, Tyler Ennis, Jusif Nurkic, and PJ Hairston all seem like good value in the middle of the draft, but I don't know enough about them to have a strong opinion.
IMO, this draft is disappointing and scary. I remember when the top picks dominated college ball. Now, I'm supposed to cream in my jeans about a guy who averages 12 points and 5 rebounds against mostly guys who are hoping to get lucky with some management training program when their college years end. McDermott is the exception...he actually kicks ass against college competition, but we're not supposed to like him. I'm fine with trading the picks if you can get a player or two who you know can play.
Jordan averaged 13.5/4.4 as a freshman. The 16th and 19th picks in that draft were John Stockton and Bernard Thompson. We are likely to get two picks in this draft. I hope they're not two Thompson type picks. A lot of teams passed on Stockton - he was no sure fire pro. He wasn't even a lotto pick.
Most of the top guys this year are dominant or borderline dominant as freshman. They put up better numbers against better competition than McDermott did his freshman year and, obviously, project to have much better pro potential. If they stuck around all 4 years they'd be more dominant than McDermott is now, but what's the point of dominating the same level of competition every year? We are probably in agreement that more of these guys should stay in college longer but the truth is a lot of them don't need all four years in college. Have you seen Embiid play? His numbers aren't dominant, but he has a huge impact every time I see him play and just from watching him you can tell that he can do special things. Perhaps most importantly, you can tell that if he continues to improve then certain aspects of his game can be dominant at the next level as well. Julius Randle is putting up 15/10.5 and is often dominant as a 19 year old freshman. He can drive like few big men his size, score with his back to the basket, and while his J is poor its ahead of the vast majority of 19 year old bigs. Hes got NBA size and strength and I think he'll surprise some people at the combine. Wiggins and Parker both have great stretches of play. They aren't really dominant but they're pretty damn impressive for freshman. Probably better than McDermott was his freshman year and with much higher ceilings. IMO this year's class of top guys is safer than than a lot of recent drafts exactly because they actually are producing at a high level as freshman. Think of guys like MKG, Kanter, Harrison Barnes, Bradley Beal, Drummond, Kyrie Irving who were picked despite underwhelming production in college (some of them barely played or didn't play at all). Some of them continue to disappoint in the league, others are living up to their projections. Meanwhile the older, more polished, more dominant college guys aren't convincing NBA teams to shy away from "high potential" guys. Thomas Robinson, Jimmer Freddette, Kemba Walker, Evan Turner, Wes Johnson, Cole Aldrich, Adam Morrison etc. were all dominant college players who stayed 3+ years. Their dominance did not translate to the next level.
A well-reasoned response. I have seen Embiid play, but not every game. That's part of the problem. Maybe I've caught his off games or maybe I lack the requisite imagination. When I've seen him, he hasn't been a "Holy shit, did you see that guy!" kind of player. He sure looks like a project to me. If I have the 2nd pick in a supposedly super-strong draft, I don't want to take a project. Sent from my Venue 7 3730 using Tapatalk
I think the one place where this draft is going to disappoint is in the top three picks. Not that they're bad prospects, but they're just not the type of guys you'd want to dismantle a team for.....which is what a lot of teams did. If I'm a Philly fan, I"m feeling awfully nervous about trading away scores of serviceable players and obliterating team morale for the chance to draft Andrew Wiggins. He's got great tools, but I'm not sure if he's more likely to be Marvin Williams or Tracy McGrady....and it might take a few years to find out. However, I don't think it changes the fact that the first round of this draft is going to be one of the strongest top to bottom in a decade. This is good news for the Bulls. We should have nice choices to add a valuable piece(s). However, like you I wouldn't mind trading one of the picks this year. Helps clear space for Melo and if Mirotic is coming over next year we don't want too many guys who are new to the NBA game.
^^ But this potential 2014 draft class, so celebrated just months ago, is beginning to look very uncertain and one in which there may not be a no brainer impact player among the bunch. Or, I tanked the season for these guys? One bad tournament game doesn’t mean much to pro evaluators. Though the way the top players mostly weren’t dominant even in losses or had a major impact, if not worrisome, suggests they are far away from being high level pros. Many top NBA players have lost early in their tournament years. Though few have gone out as quietly as some of the top players in this class. Mark Aguirre had eight points in DePaul’s 1981 loss to St. Joe’s. And Aguirre then was the No. 1 overall pick in the NBA draft and went on to average almost 25 per game his first seven years in the NBA. Though he’d been in college three years averaging almost 25 per game and previously in a Final Four. It’s also why pro scouts watching the tournament say not only are these “upsets” no surprise, but they send a message about the problem with the draft. So many top players, like Parker, are so young that they can be outplayed by upper classmen, like Mercer had in their win over Duke, who are stronger and more mature. Like actual NBA players. It sends a signal they are not ready for the NBA, where they’ll face more men and every game.
I kinda' adopted Kansas as my team this season -- maybe I saw them seven or eight times but not complete games. And I definitely saw material from Embiid that would make my jaw drop. I can't think of a more complete center prospect, a guy who was similarly good at every facet of the game. What freaks me out though is that Embiid was injured for a decent portion of the season, and when he was injured, he was awful. I have no idea what a spinal stress fracture is but it sounds awful. What do you do twenty-year old who has a bad back?
Your point is spot on but I'm not thrilled with the players you reference. I've become a believer of what Jalen Rose says about making it in the NBA: It's almost all about the situation a prospect gets drafted into; not their skills and abilities. We Bulls fans have gotten a few chances to see Jimmer Freddette since he was signed and, honestly, he looks pretty damn talented. I mean, he's slow, but he's not too slow to play the position. He's a hell of a shooter, working with or without the ball. Jimmer would be the next big thing if he was on the Bulls' roster at the beginning of the season. It looks like he just joined the roster too late to get consistent minutes. And well, Kemba's really starting to ball. Thomas Robinson was/is undersized for the game he plays. That's a bad pick by Sacramento, which before they changed GMs, was one of the two teams, along with the Cavs, that never figured out the importance of evaluating size. Speaking of evaluating size, I do not understand the buzz surrounding Julius Randle. 6'9, 6'11" is way too damn small to score consistently from the post in the NBA, and he doesn't have the handle/hops of a Griffin or stretch abilities that would allow him to succeed in other ways. If that guy is going to succeed in the NBA, he's going to have to reshape his game from the ground up. I wouldn't draft him higher than the very back end of the first round. As to top guys this year, as you put it, I see a glut of players with the potential to become stars. I don't see anyone like Anthony Davis, who will be a star if he just does what he did in college besides Embiid. And Embiid has injury issues. But I see a bunch of players I'd put in that Bradey Beal/Andre Drummond flawed-but-fascinating territory. I wouldn't be surprised at all if Andrew Wiggins, Joel Embiid, Jabari Parker, Noah Vonleh, Doug McDermott or Nik Stauskas become stars. And I think Marcus Smart, Willie Cauley-Stein, Gary Harris and Zach LaVine could theoretically become stars. That's an awful lot of players.
Lots of good points here. 1). I'm beginning to think of a players impact as the amount of sensitivity their game has to their surroundings. On one extreme you have guys like Lebron who are completely insensitive. His game stays the same no matter what because he's so good. On the other extreme you have guys like Erick Murphy who are also insensitive because they're so bad. However, the 3-10 guys on the roster probably have a high level of sensitivity, and I think you're right that many of those players have their fortunes shaped by their initial starting conditions. 2). I'm beginning to think that for certain players staying in college increases their adjustment when they come to the pros. If you're a Jimmer Fredette or Thomas Robinson you've been playing 3 or 4 years in a style that won't work in the NBA, which means you have to re-make your game in order to fit. That's possibly tougher than being a guy with tools but no skills. 3). I think Embiid is a legit prospect and I'd take him #1. He reminds of me of Oden in college (that's a compliment), with maybe a dash of Hakeem thrown in. 4). I don't like Randle very much either. Ditto Aaron Gordon and Doug McDermott. Or Andrew Wiggins for that matter. Guys who are intriguing but I can't make up my mind on are Cauley-Stein and Kyle Anderson.
Disagree. First of all the notion that 6'9 is undersized for an NBA PF is outdated. How many PFs are 6'10+? LMA, Dirk, Monroe, Griffin is 6'10, Frye, Anthony Davis. Duncan, KG, Pau, etc. barely play PF and are nothing to be feared moving forward. For the most part PFs in the league are 6'9ish. Guys like Love, Randolph, and Lee, are doing fine and physically Randle is superior to all of them. I also do think his handle is good considering his age and size and he already drives on bigs on a regular basis. The jump shot is not good right now, but I've seen him hit it and that's something you expect to improve. I think hes a safe pick in that theres a pretty good chance he at least becomes a Z-Bo/Al Jefferson kind of 20/10 guy but with a hollow stats reputation, however he has the potential to be much better than that. I don't know much about his work ethic or character, but Calipari guys always irk me even if there may not actually be a lot of evidence that he or his guys are definitively shady. Nonetheless, I think hes the 4th best prospect in the draft. My general thoughts on some other players: Embiid is the clear #1 in the draft. Suspect on Wiggins; physical specimen and his skills are good but just doesn't look like a natural basketball player. Hard to say on him because hes so young. If he stayed another year of college I think his development would be so much clearer, but he obviously aint doing that. Parker is the safer pick, great skills and really advanced for his age. Was a crap defender though and kind of a liability on defense, sort of a tweener, kind of pudgy. I'm assuming he'll trim down in the NBA. Reminds me of Paul Pierce. Randle is the clear #4 (admittedly, I know nothing about Exum). Like I said I think hes at least gonna be a fringe all-star and could be as good as being a top 3-5 PF in the league. Don't like Aaron Gordon, don't know where he's going to play and don't see any NBA level skill there.
I agree with all this. I wouldn't be surprised if Wiggins ends up as a Thaddeus Young type. Which is fine, but not worthy of his hype. It bothers me that he's only a straight-line athlete and not a side-to-side athlete. All the great wing players that I can think of are great side-to-side athletes, and I can't think of too many players that become one after entering the league. It makes me suspicious that he'll be able to reach a T-Mac/Vince offensive ceiling. I'm not crazy about Aaron Gordon either. He doesn't strike me as a natural SF or PF, and he's an explosive but clumsy athlete. He also can't buy a basket. I'm seeing a Travis Outlaw/Bo Outlaw/Brandan Wright type of player. I think he'll find a spot in the league, but I don't think what he brings to the table will be enough to make him a 30 mpg+ player. I don't mind him, but I don't see the All-Star projections. McDermott doesn't look like an NBA athlete to me, and looks like a guy defenses will key in on every time he steps on the floor. I know this seems harch, but I think he's a second round guy. I know their games are different, but I have him in the Luke Babitt/Adam Morrison level of athleticism....where you just don't have nearly enough to get any kind of separation. This is distinctly different from the Jimmer Fredette/Wally Szczerbiak level, which means you'll struggle but will still be able to play your position. LaVine is someone else that I think is overrated. There's a subtle difference between a guy who can create occasional highlights that few others can and someone who consistently outperforms others on the court because of their superior basketball ability. The plays everyone ooh's and ahhh's about always seem to come when no one's guarding him. In general I think there are going to be a lot of good guys available for us to draft, but I find my opinion of many players moving away from the consensus.
Under this scenario he's what, our PG? Its hard to make much of an evaluation of the guy in limited minutes, but he's not a PG, right? The guy can shoot, but can't get his shot off reliability. And some scouts call him the worst NBA defender, which is saying something. Maybe playing next to a dominant player like Rose he'll have lots of looks to knock down, but does that outweigh the defense? And we saw 3 years ago (3 years ago!?!?!) when the Heat knocked off the Bulls that the Rose Bulls need another shot creator that can also stretch the defense. I'd like to hear the case for Jimmer. If you can't run the offense or play D passably, its going to be hard get burn on these Bulls.
Not necessarily making the case for Jimmer, but if our back court scores 50 and theirs scores 40, didn't ours win that match up? Win the match ups at all the positions and we win for sure
Ok, the case for Jimmer is he puts up an 18 PER for us and a ~16.5 PER for Sacto. Comparable to Taj on our team, by that measure. Or DJ. The guy is a lights out 3pt shooter, and he's a scorer, too. He was a +5 last night, the only Bulls player with a positive +/-.
I've seen some flashes from Jimmer in Sac, but I've also seen a lot of moments where he gets seriously taken advantage of and looks like he doesn't belong in the league. Maybe he becomes consistent and serviceable, but I would never plan on him being anything more than a 8th man on a relevant team. Yeah Wiggins just reminds me so much of Harrison Barnes. Great combine athlete with straight line speed and jumping, but when you really watch him hes slow footed and clumsy with the occasional impressive jump/sprint. They've developed their jumpers and handles to really tantalize you, but you watch a guy like Barnes play alongside someone like Draymond Green and it becomes glaring how deficient Barnes is as far as instincts. Wiggins and Barnes both should have 10+ year careers, but to me their realistic ceilings are more like Jamal Mashburn or Rashard Lewis than T-Mac. Again though, Wiggins JUST turned 19 about 5 weeks ago so its hard to project right now. I think McDermott could stick in the league, but I'm certainly not as confident about him as his bigger supporters. Szcerbiak sounds like a realistic but somewhat positive comparison. IMO hes better than Adam Morrison-level athleticism, but yes he'll be at a major disadvantage in the NBA there. Still, hes a hell of a shooter and should have value as a 3 pt spot up shooting specialist if nothing else. We'll see how much of the rest of his game translates. LaVine is raw as hell but he shows you those incredible flashes of brilliance. Draftexpress has him going late 1st round, nbadraft.net has him going 12th overall. As a Warriors fan I'd be thrilled to be able to obtain a late 1st and take him and let him develop for 2-3 seasons. If he stayed at UCLA another year or two he'd likely be a top 10 pick in 2015 or 16. Coming out this year, he's a big gamble. Other guys I'd be interested late 1st/early second: Montrezl Herrel, Aaron Harrison, Adreian Payne, Kyle Anderson, Russ Smith, Patric Young, Dwight Powell, DeAndre Kane.
