Playoff Seeding

Discussion in 'Chicago Bulls' started by rosenthall, Mar 30, 2014.

  1. rosenthall

    rosenthall Well-Known Member

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    Most teams have about 10 games left in their season, and the playoff picture in the east looks just about set.

    And who woulda thunk it....the East isn't quite as bad as we thought it was.

    Still putrid? Yes. But it looks a lot better than three months ago, when there were three(!) teams in the conference with winning records.

    While Chicago has become a media darling for their toughness and team play, Toronto and Brooklyn have quietly put together excellent performances for most of 2014 that almost exactly parallels Chicago.

    In fact, in 2014 they've all posted better records than Miami and Indiana.

    This is how they've done since the beginning of the year:

    Brooklyn: 29-12, 4.1 Net Rating
    Chicago: 29-14, 3.6 Net Rating
    Toronto: 28-16, 4.9 Net Rating

    IMO any series between these teams figures to be closely contested.

    The three teams are separated by two wins in the loss column, so there's still time for any of these guys to switch between the 3-4-5 spots in the east.

    Washington looks like it has the #6 seed locked up. Lucky for them they only have to worry about Charlotte and Atlanta in the rearview mirror.

    If the season were to end today we'd face Brooklyn in the first round and (presumably) Indiana in the second.

    By my estimation, that's who we'll want in the second round, but probably not who we want to go through in order to get there.

    Brooklyn has quietly overcome their blunders from the beginning of the season and have been playing with a head of steam for several months now. Jason Kidd even looks like he might be able to coach.

    Washington is no pushover (John Wall is likely the best player in a Chi-Was series), but my money would be on the Bulls being able to out-execute them in a 7 game series.

    The ideal seeding would be for us to overtake Toronto for the 3 seed and have Indiana fall to #2.

    We'll probably lose to either one of them, but I like my chances better against Indiana since they're beginning to look as offensively challenged as we are. They've also been on a slow, steady decline for the last 4 months. I think we can give them 6 tough games.

    Miami and Indiana are currently tied in the loss column, so I'd say it's 50/50 which way the ball bounces.

    If we're going to leapfrog Toronto next week would be a good time to do it.

    Toronto has Miami, Houston, and Indiana on their schedule this week. We have Boston, Milwaukee, and Atlanta.

    The Bulls also have a patsy end to their schedule. We have one game against a team over .500....but it's an important one....against Washington.

    Toronto's schedule is cake after this week as well. All eastern conference teams.

    I think I'm kind of confident that the Bulls can beat Washington in the playoffs, but completely torn on who'd win in a BRK/CHI series. I'm also pretty confident that we won't beat Indiana or Miami, so for the time being I think seeding in the first round is more important.

    What are your guys' thoughts on this?
     
    Last edited: Mar 30, 2014
  2. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    Great post.

    I am always dubious about a gimmick system being able to work in a 7 game series. At some point, really talented players find a way to prevail. Slowing the game down and turning it into a brick fest might work for a game or two.
     
  3. transplant

    transplant Global Moderator Staff Member Global Moderator

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    The Bulls have performed much better than I expected since the Deng trade. Noah and Augustin have led the charge, but I have a ton of respect for all the players and of course Thibodeau and his staff.

    This said, I don't think the Bulls are very good and believe that any of Washington, Brooklyn or Toronto could beat them in a 7-game series. I'd make Brooklyn the favorite in a head to head. Although unlikely, I'd like to play Toronto in round 1...the Bulls would have the best player on the court in Noah and in Lowry, the Raptors have a big-minutes PG that's the same size as Augustin.
     
  4. kukoc4ever

    kukoc4ever Let's win a ring! Staff Member Moderator

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    Best case is that the Bulls get the #3 seed, Miami passes Indiana.

    Bulls are not a lock to beat any of these teams in a 7 game series, but I like our chances against Washington over Brooklyn and Toronto. I like the Bulls chances of perhaps hanging with Indy over Miami. Then maybe Lebron blows out his knee DRose style and the Bulls waltz into the NBA Finals.

    The defense is going to be sound and Noah/Boozer/Gibson gives us the edge at 4/5 over most teams but who is going to get those key baskets? That's going to be the wildcard game in game out. We're banking on DJ, Hinrich, Dunleavy to do this (Butler isn't there). Usually that does not work in the playoffs.
     
  5. TomBoerwinkle#1

    TomBoerwinkle#1 Administrator Staff Member Administrator

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    I am always dubious of the use of individual stats to rank rate or predict team performance and a player's actual contribution thereto. Bulls performance since Jan is a positive in the only stat that matters and winning despite Hollinger the Integer's busy noisy attempts to quantify show his inherent wonky flaws.

    Will the Bulls get a ring this season? Magic 8 Ball made up a new prediction of " yeah right" but this is a team that can make some playoff noise (again) without the benefit of Rose (again). Don' t discount the talent of this squad or the coach. Can it and should it be improved? Sure. But this can still be a fun team in the playoffs subject to giving teams fits.

    Fully loaded? I wouldn't have counted this team out of Larry O'Brian contention, despite flaws of PER adjusted for pace strength of schedule overall ambiance combimed average bench press GQ style and mascot rating.
     
  6. rosenthall

    rosenthall Well-Known Member

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    Well tonight was a golden goose.

    Miami beats Toronto. Indiana gets trounced by San Antonio. We win.

    We're now in a dead heat with Toronto for the third seed and Miami is a full game ahead of Indiana.

    Toronto has the tiebreaker with us because they're leading their division, but we're playing better right now and they have games against Indiana and Houston coming up. If we're going to pull ahead it might happen this week.

    Indiana also looks like it's in the throes of dysfunction.

    17-13 in their last 30 games.

    Their offense is shaping up to be just as bad as ours.

    Since the beginning of the year: (league rank in parentheses)

    1). O-rating:

    Chicago: 100.6 (28)
    Indiana: 98.9(29)

    2). True Shooting %

    Chicago: 52.5% (24)
    Indiana: 52.2% (26)

    3). Record in 2014

    Chicago: 19-10 (6)
    Indiana: 17-13 (14)

    4). Net Rating

    Chicago: 3.4 (9)
    Indiana: 0.1 (17)

    Paul George is their only rotation player with a PER over 20, which coincidentally is exactly the same as Noah's. (20.2)

    There was also this written today:

    At the beginning of the year I thought the Bulls would've been the sacrificial lamb if they met the Pacers in the playoffs. My feelings gradually evolved to the point where I thought they'd be a better matchup than Miami.

    Now I actually think they could win.

    In fact, I might even go so far as to say that I'd like the Bulls' chances against the Pacers better than their chances against the Nets in a 7 game series right now.
     
    Last edited: Mar 31, 2014
  7. rosenthall

    rosenthall Well-Known Member

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    Well, tonight was a straight flush for the Bulls.

    Toronto loses to New York. Miami beats Indiana. Brooklyn loses too for good measure.

    If the playoffs were to start today we'd have the #3 seed and would face Washington in the first round and Indiana in the second.

    If that happens what are our chances at the ECF?
     
  8. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    As long as we don't face Miami, spurs, OKC, etc., I'm liking our chances for ECF.

    Derrick a Who?
     
  9. rosenthall

    rosenthall Well-Known Member

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    Right now I;d put our odds like this:

    Against Washington: 2/3 chance we win.

    Against Indiana: 1/2 chance we win.

    2/3*1/2=1/3, which sounds about right to me.

    At this point I don't think Derrick Rose would be much of a help in the playoffs.

    He was clearly rusty at the beginning of the season and I'd expect him to have the same problems if he were to return in the playoffs.

    Since the beginning of the year we're 35-14, which is the third best record in the league behind San Antonio and the Clippers. The guy he'd likely be taking minutes away from is DJ Augustin, who's been averaging 15 points on 58% TS and a 2.75 A/TO ratio, along with an 18 PER.

    What are the chances that Derrick would be an improvement over that?
     
  10. transplant

    transplant Global Moderator Staff Member Global Moderator

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    I'd LOVE to find out. If DRose definitively isn't a signinficant improvement over Augustin, I want GarPax to be the first to know.
     
  11. truebluefan

    truebluefan Administrator Staff Member Administrator

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    We lost tonight. The way it stands now we could still play Indiana if we get the 4th seed. We could play them in the second round.
     
  12. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    Once upon a time, they talked about Rose like he was a unicorn. He is much more like a unicorn these days. A mythical creature that nobody's seen (in action).
     
  13. kukoc4ever

    kukoc4ever Let's win a ring! Staff Member Moderator

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    Avoiding the Nets and then avoiding the Heat until the ECFs? Not too shabby.
     
  14. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    Who says this team can't tank.
     
  15. rosenthall

    rosenthall Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, we ended up doing pretty well for ourselves. Washington in the first and Indiana in the second was the best possible scenario IMO.

    Not that means we're going to win anything.

    Washington has the most variance of any of the bottom eastern conference playoff teams and they always seem to play us tough.

    Brooklyn ended up doing pretty well too. They're a good matchup with Toronto and Miami.

    Will be a good playoffs!

    Jonathan
     
  16. transplant

    transplant Global Moderator Staff Member Global Moderator

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    :rofl:
     
  17. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    They lost a game they had to. Got them the best playoff seeding for the match ups, no?

    They made it look good, though. As they should.
     
  18. transplant

    transplant Global Moderator Staff Member Global Moderator

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    Glad they pleased you.
     

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