with everyone healthy I would have to give HOU the edge, however that's why we have playoffs and if we played well we IMO would have a decent chance
Agreed - I think we are the better team, but after seeing the way Houston was able to work the refs in our last meeting to steal that game from us, I am concerned.
One positive...our defensive strategy of not stepping up on pick and rolls works well against Beverley (assuming he's back by then), who isn't a good shooter off the dribble. Negative is that Beverley does a great job of neutralizing Dame...we'll need strong performances by Dame and LA in order to win the series. LMA poses problems for Houston because if they cover him with Howard, it pulls Howard away from the basket and he can't protect the rim. If they cover him with Terrance Jones/Montejunas, he should dominate either one strength-wise. I noticed a similar issue with OKC, where Ibaka was far more effective than Perk covering LMA, but that takes away from his ability to cut off the lane and block/alter shots. I think it will be a great series. Hopefully, the ability of all five of our starters to hit FT's will carry some of the close games.
The LMA thing is important. If LMA truly goes beast mode, and doesn't settle for any jumpers until after he's dominated the paint, we have a good chance. But the Beverley thing is a serious issue.
Houston just seems to match up so well with us. Also, supposedly, the players have orders to flop on each and every offensive and defenseive stand whenever possible. The team laughs and fines are paid- and they shoot more FT's than any other team (I have been told, but not verified). That gets opponents in foul trouble, stops the flow of the game...
The league considers D12 and The Beard to be superstars which gives them an advantage. I think we are better though.
Team is the X factor in the question and I give the edge to Portland on that level. Houston trumps us in two areas. Harden's scoring and Howard in the paint. To beat them, Wes has to take Harden out of the equation and Rolo has to get Howard in early foul trouble as well as Nico containing Parsons. It's no easy matchup even with Beverly out or hobbled. In the playoffs the Blazers have to bring their A game every night. Nobody gets a night off.
Parsons also trumps Batum in terms of intensity/aggressiveness, and I really think that matchup is going to be the key to the series.
Houston and they've proven it And no, the last game wasn't stolen from Portland It was just another game the Blazers couldn't finish
I think on paper they're stronger than us if Beverly is healthy but we actually may be deeper. It will come down to who wants it more who tries harder and plays as a team.