I've seen a lot of coverage on the race for the 4 seed. But have not seen much as far as other teams seeding relative to our own. I decided to conduct my own research and form my own theory on how the season will round out, and what it means for our Blazers. I copied this from a /r/ripcity reddit post that I submitted, which can be found at http://www.reddit.com/r/ripcity/comments/22l6zt/comprehensive_guide_to_playoff_scenarios/ I have been wondering about this myself, but was unable to find very conclusive information. So I have decided to go ahead and crunch the numbers to determine possible outcomes for our 2014 playoff seeding. I'll talk about magic numbers (winning and losing) which for those who do not know are the number of games a team must win, or lose, in order to guarantee securing or losing a certain playoff spot. There are only 6 (reasonably) applicable teams when discussing our playoff seeding. The spurs, Thunder, Clippers, Rockets, Blazers, and Warriors. Take note that I will not go into the possibility of the Blazers slipping below the 6th seed, for that in my opinion is highly unlikely. The current standings are: 1. Spurs (60-18) 2. Thunder (56-21; 3 1/2 games back) 3. Clippers (55-23; 5 games back) 4. Rockets (52-25; 7 1/2 games back) 5. Blazers (50-28; 10 games back) 6. Warriors (11 1/2 games back) Next we will look at the schedule for these 6 teams and break down who has the best chance to do what, I will also talk about how the schedule factors in to each team hitting their magic number, starting with the Spurs. San Antonio - After losing to the T'Wolves the spurs have 4 games remaining. 3 of which against western conference playoff teams. @Dallas, Vs. Phoenix, @Houston, and close the season at home Vs. Los Angeles Lakers. I have the Spurs likely to go 2-2 in their last 4 games with wins against Houston and Los Angeles. These 2 games would clinch the Conference title and guarantee the Spurs Home Court through Finals (No one in the east can catch their record). Oklahoma City - The Thunder have a fairly easy remaining schedule aside from playing the Clippers in LA, which will be the second of a back to back tomorrow night. They finish the season out with Home games Vs. New Orleans and Detroit, and away games Vs. New Orleans and Indiana. I believe the Thunder will finish the season 4-1. However should they lose to the Clippers (who are currently 1 1/2 games behind the Thunder) then we will start talking about a potential for the 3 Vs. 6 match up in the west to feature the Thunder. The Thunder must go 4-1 to guarantee the 2 seed. If the Clippers win tomorrows game they would need the Thunder to end the season 3-1 in order to tie their record of 59-23. The Clippers own the tie-breaker in that series, which would bump them up to the 2 seed, and the Thunder down to the 3 seed. Los Angeles Clippers - The Clippers will play Oklahoma City tomorrow night in what many Blazer fans should likely consider to be the most important game of the regular season. After tomorrow the Clippers close with 2 easy home games Vs. the Kings and Nuggets, followed by their trip here to Portland. I feel the Clippers have the best chance of finishing the season Undefeated, which will ultimately decide a lot when thinking about who plays who. Houston - The Rockets cannot finish any higher than the 4 seed, and the race between Portland and Houston has already been extensively covered, so I won't go into much detail about it. The Blazers would have to Win out and hope that Houston loses 3/5 games. Portland - As stated earlier, I won't go into detail about the race for the 4 seed. However the 6th seed is still a possible scenario which has not been discussed much. The Blazers will need to do no worse than 3-1 to secure the 5 seed. The Kings and Jazz logically should be 2 wins, but a 2-2 finish is a strong possibility with games remaining against the Warriors and Clippers. The most important game that Portland has a hand in is without a doubt the final game of the season Vs. the Clippers. Assuming we handle the Kings and Jazz, we then look at dropping a game to the Warriors, and needing to beat the Clippers in order to (potentially) lock up the 5 seed. Golden State - Here is where it gets tricky... The Warriors with 5 games left have (in my opinion) the second best chance of finishing the season undefeated. They have away games in Portland, Denver, and Los Angeles (Lakers), with 2 home games Vs. Minnesota and Denver. If the Warriors win out (that would include beating us at home) and the Blazers beat Utah, Sacramento, LAC, we would be bumped down to the 6 seed because the Warriors would own the Tie-breaker. Now we get into a little bit of TLDR The most likely scenarios are that the Spurs clinch the 1 seed...and after that is where probability ceases to exist. Lets assume the Clippers win tomorrow: This greatly increases the chances that they end up in the 2 seed. The Thunder could very easily lose to a Pacer team who is looking to get back to form. This would put pressure on the Blazers to win the Golden State game if they want to avoid playing the Thunder. If the LAC win we have a possibility of seeing a #4 Rockets Vs. #5 Blazers, a #3 Clippers Vs. #6 Blazers or a #3 Thunder Vs. #6 Blazers. Lets Assume the Clippers lose tomorrow: In all probability this would destroy the Clippers chances of getting the #2 seed. Which would leave us with either a #4 Rockets Vs. #5 Blazers, or a #3 Clippers Vs. #6 Blazers The most probable opponents in order of most likely to least likely are as follows: Rockets, Clippers, Thunder. The remaining games every Blazer fan should keep their eye on: Tomorrow - Thunder Vs. Clippers and 4/13 - Blazers Vs. Warriors Obviously we could fall to the 7 or 8 seed, however 1 win guarantees no worse than #7 and 2 wins guarantees no worse than #6. Hopefully this helped clarify the wild wild west for those of you who may have been pondering scenarios, but not wanting to take the time to research possibilities. I know this was a big wall of text, let me know if I should try to make it more concise. Go Blazers!
A few users on reddit pointed out my incomplete thought in regards to the importance of our game Vs. the Warriors compared to that of our game Vs. the Clippers. To clarify - I said this with the assumption that we lose to Golden State. If we lose to Golden State and end up in the 6 seed, that game Vs. the Clippers will determine who we play (assuming the Clippers beat OKC and take care of easy games). If we lose to the Clippers in the last game of the season we Play the Thunder in a #3 Vs #6 matchup. This is because as stated earlier the Clippers would own the Tiebreaker over the Thunder. If we beat the Clippers they would finish behind the Thunder at the 3 seed, and that is who we would be playing in the first round. Which in itself would be very interesting to basically have an 8 game series. Hope that makes sense, and know that by no means is the Golden State game not important, because it will affect our seeding. However if we lose that game (which I find probable) the result of the Clipper game will determine our opponent. If we win that Golden state game it should be assumed that we will have secured the 5 seed and will be facing the Rockets in the first round, leaving the game Vs. the Clippers being important for the Warriors, as it would then determine who they play in the first round. PS - I would love to see an OKC - Golden State first round series, those teams have played each other in very entertaining games this season.
