Official Thread: Bulls vs. Wizards

Discussion in 'Chicago Bulls' started by rosenthall, Apr 18, 2014.

  1. rosenthall

    rosenthall Well-Known Member

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    The Bulls will square off vs. the Washington Wizards in the first round of the Eastern Conference on Sunday night.

    They sneaked into the 5th seed in the eastern conference thanks to Brooklyn artfully tanking its last four games to give itself more favorable playoff matchups.

    I can't say I've watched a lot of them, but my opinion after a few hours of research on the internet is that they're a high variance team that definitely has the capability of beating the Bulls due to their athleticism, size, and the presence of an almost-superstar in John Wall, who figures to be the most dangerous offensive player in the series.

    However, the Wizards have a habit of coming up as less than the sum of their parts. They're a lot like a top draft pick. Tools that make your mouth water, but an inconsistency and lack of focus that prevents them from being someone you'd want to rely on when it counts.

    Their inconsistency has been highlighted by occasional chemistry and effort issues that have been noted by their coach and veteran players.

    2013-2014 Season

    The Wizards finished the year 44-38, and perhaps more importantly, 19-11 after the all-star break with a four game win streak to end the season.

    So does that mean Bulls fans should fear the worst? Are the Wizards finally hitting their stride and cashing in on their talent?

    Fortunately, Bulls fans might not have to fear for the worst.

    Most of those games were against eastern conference cream puffs that were playing for lotto balls, not wins.

    Their four game win streak came at the expense of a Miami team that had clearly mailed it in to end the season and Boston, Milwaukee, and Orlando. If you're an NBA team with a pulse it'd be hard not to rack up a few wins against that group.

    Their two previous games were against much more serious opponents, and the results were very different. The Bulls gave them a good ol' fashioned ass-kicking that ended in an 18 point victory that was over by halftime, thanks to the Bulls' defense holding the Wiz to a paltry 26 points. They also got edged out by Charlotte in overtime.

    If you break apart their 19-11 record, you'll find that they were only 4-7 against teams with winning records. And two of those wins might have asterisks by them. They easily defeated a Miami team that was resting Lebron and Chris Bosh and played DWade less than 20 minutes. It was a gimme. They also scooped up a W against Indiana at the height of its freefall.

    Vs. the Bulls

    The Wizards are 2-1 vs. the Bulls this season, but it's hard to say how comparable they were. The first two came within a week of another and the Bulls had *just* picked up D.J. Augustin and were still working him into the rotation.

    At this point the Bulls were 17-19 and 18-20. D.J. wasn't DJ yet, Noah wasn't Noah, and Taj wasn't the Taj we've seen the second half of the season.

    The last game, as noted above, was a very different story.

    However, I don't think you can dismiss those first two games as inconsequential. I watched one of them and thought it was clear that the Wiz created matchup problems for the Bulls.

    John Wall is faster than Kirk Hinrich and much stronger than D.J. Augustin. The Bulls don't have a good cover for him, and I think this'll be a sore throughout the series.

    The Wizards also have good size and athleticism upfront, which negates an advantage the Bulls typically bring with them to most games. Nene in particular usually gives the Bulls problems and did not play in the last meeting between the two teams.

    John Wall

    John Wall is the Wizards best player and the team might run more of their offense through him than any other team does through their star player.

    This might not be obvious from conventional stats, but a little peak into the nouveau-advanced variety paints a different picture.

    Some fun anecdotes:

    1). On average, he literally has the ball in his hands more than any other player in the league.

    2). He touches the ball 95 times per game, which is second only to Kemba Walker.

    3). He makes 71 passes per game, which is good for fourth in the league, behind Kemba, Chris Paul, and Rajon Rondo. (Fun stat: Noah is the first non-pg to show up on this list at #7, which is absurd for a center. The next center on this list is Spencer Hawes at #42).

    It's probably safe to say that effectively boxing in John Wall is the key to the series for the Bulls.

    This is good and bad. On the one hand, if there's one guy in the universe you'd pick to craft an elegant defensive scheme that's disruptive, hard to predict and suffocating......it'd probably be Tom Thibodeau.

    If there's one thing this Bulls team does well, it's execute complicated defensive schemes.

    On the other hand, it's hard to say just how good John Wall can be. He made his first all-star game this year, and you get the feeling that he still has an extra gear in his game.

    He's been a bit inconsistent throughout his career, and hasn't come out of the gate quite like you'd want a franchise-calibre talent to do........but they guy's not JR Smith out there. He seems pretty serious about the game, and these sorts of situations are the exact ones that are favorable to guys having their coming out party.

    I don't want John Wall's 36 point 11 assist game 7 masterpiece to be his coming out party as a bona fide NBA superstar.

    But it's possible it might.

    Overall

    The Bulls vs. the Wiz is anything but a sure bet, but right now I think the smart money's on the Bulls.

    The Wiz have dimensions that make them a dangerous team, but so far they've proven incapable of consistently bringing it out vs. the best of the NBA.

    The Bulls have shown zero signs of letdown, have a miraculously clean bill of health, and seem to be dialed in and firing on all cylinders.

    And while I fear John Wall, I trust the defense of Taj and Jo enough to feel like his dynamism won't be enough to take down our team in a 7 game series.

    Bulls in 6.
     
  2. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    The Wizards will get to study game film from game 1 and will adjust to whatever we throw at them. Or at least try to.

    I'm guessing Jimmy guards Wall and they hide Kirk on their worst of SF/SG.

    The Wizards went from 29 wins to 44 this season.

    Trevor Ariza is roughly the same players as Lu was for us, but he is an excellent 3pt shooter. He's very tall for a SF, and a great defender as well.

    Gortat is an efficient double-double kind of guy who blocks shots. Noah is going to get pushed around by him a bit, but he's also going to get to draw him out of the lane since he plays so much high post.

    Nene is a freakish athlete, who is probably better at both ends than the improved Taj.

    Beal is turning into a really fine SG. I'm not sure about his defense, but his offensive game is near elite.

    They have a lot of 3pt shooters. If they get off, we're toast.
     
  3. rosenthall

    rosenthall Well-Known Member

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    I mostly agree with all of this. The Wiz can absolutely take it to the Bulls, and I'm giving them about a 40% chance to win the series. Not much of an "upset" at all.

    The only quibble I have is that I fear Nene in this series more than I fear Gortat.

    Of course I'm no expert on the Wiz, but I feel like he takes the rest of the team out of their game somewhat, despite the fact that he's a good player in his own right.

    I see their most dangerous lineup being John Wall with shooters and as much athleticism as possible up front. In this regard Nene is a bit of a double whammy since he's big and incredibly mobile.
     
  4. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    I don't really fear Gortat. Boozer will probably guard him and he should win the match up. Even limited to 24 minutes.

    Nene is a load for Noah.

    They don't have an answer for Taj. We don't have an answer for Beal or Webster.

    In theory, Jimmy hassling Wall could throw off their rhythm. But enter Dre Miller and they can still make plays.

    The Wiz may fold under the playoff pressure, as well.
     
  5. transplant

    transplant Global Moderator Staff Member Global Moderator

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    The Wiz will have the best player on the floor (Wall). To me, this means you have to give them a chance to win the series.

    Yeah, I'm afraid of them.

    I want to watch Bulls games as long as I can. I'll take what I can get.
     
  6. kukoc4ever

    kukoc4ever Let's win a ring! Staff Member Moderator

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    In the playoffs, you need guys to hit big shots under 100% effort NBA defense under high pressure. Not really clear who is going to do that here with the Bulls. Of course, not much of a track record with anyone on the Wiz either. Tiebreaker goes to the more disciplined team so Bulls should win this series, unless this is a big coming out party for Wall.
     
  7. transplant

    transplant Global Moderator Staff Member Global Moderator

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    Good call on Butler guarding Wall...Wall is actually taller than Bradley Beal, their starting SG. Beal is their 2nd leading scorer so Hinrich will hardly be "hidden." Beal is a tough cover for Hinrich or anyone else the Bulls put on him. As you noted, their starting SF is 6-8 Trevor Ariza so the only time Hinrich will defend him is on switches.
     
  8. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    Boozer is indeed guarding Gortat.
     

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