From whowins.com: http://www.whowins.com/2014series/nba2014h.html HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading 1-game-nil: Ignoring win order; ignoring site order: The team leading 1-game-nil irrespective of site order (Portland) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2013 MLB Finals: series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 867-353 (.711) series record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 198-98 (.669) series record, NBA only, all rounds: 350-103 (.773) series record, NBA only, Preliminary round: 66-22 (.750)
We already accomplished the hard part, and that's stealing home court. Now we just have to hold serve and win at home. Still a hard task, but significantly easier than having to win in their house.
I'm telling you, we're going to have to win twice in Houston. I really do think they take one of games three and four.
No, the hard part is, and has always been, closing a team out. Houston is more than capable of winning in Portland at least once when their backs are against the wall.
Winning game 1 was huge, we have a chance to put Houston in desperation mode. But I always think game 4 is the critical game in a playoff series. One team can get a massive 3-1 advantage or the other team can even the series at 2-2. If a series goes to 3-1 its extremely rare to then lose three in a row. Some people think a team plays better after a loss, or plays better when their back is against the wall, which sure can be true. You can get an opponents best shot. But there is a reason teams don't try these desperation strategies right off the bat, they are potentially high reward but they are high risk and can backfire. If a team tries to do too much they run a big risk of making mistakes and can get run over. It similar to when a football team goes for it on fourth down, they are ridiculously unbeatable when they are converting most of them. But if they have a few consecutive attempts that don't go their way they can get blown out in a hurry. I'm glad to see the Blazers with the opportunity to put an opponents back against the wall. There isn't really pressure or the possibility of failing in game 2; but there is a great opportunity to knock down the opponent.
I always hated stats like this. How many playoff series does the above include with a horrific low seed in the playoffs? The Rockets are way better then many of the celler dwellers that backed into the playoffs over the years as a 7th or 8th seed. How many series does the above include where the team that lost was the home team? How many series is the team that lost game 1 have an identical record as the team that won? How many series does the losing team have 54+ wins? There are tons of data points in this example that have absolutely zero predictive value to the Blazers current situation.
I'm thinking the Rockets win game 2 handily (although not, I hope, as handily as the Clippers). Here's hoping this prediction is as good as when I predicted the Blazers wouldn't make the playoffs.
This is really difficult. One the one hand, I like Portland as we're healthy and came into the playoffs playing well. We are a team that has learned to overcome adversity. But I tend to think Houston will win as they have 2 things- 1) A dominant big man in the middle and 2) Flops. No matter how good the refs may be, Houston flops on nearly every possession to some degree. Sometimes it's big and others small. All designed to get those 10-15 extra and undeserving free throws per game and get key players on the other team in foul trouble. To beat Houston with their cheating is to, essentially, outscore them by 10-12 points. And I just don't think we're 10-12 points better than they are. Take away the flopping and we win hands down. Add it in and it gives them an edge.
