Bulls' Nikola Mirotic knows hard work lies ahead

Discussion in 'Chicago Bulls' started by Bullsville, Jul 20, 2014.

  1. Bullsville

    Bullsville Intelligent Bulls Fan

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  2. truebluefan

    truebluefan Administrator Staff Member Administrator

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    46% in 3's. Wow.

     
  3. such sweet thunder

    such sweet thunder Member Staff Member Moderator

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    KC didn't present it right, but I don't think he's wrong? Mirotic has fallen apart towards the end of his last three seasons. And that's playing around 22 minutes a game and never more than two games a week. Mirotic also struggled while he presumably had access to the very best trainers in the world. Real Madrid makes the Yankees look like a small market team.

    I'm hoping that Mirotic faces less wear and tear issues in the NBA -- it seems like there is less wrestling and cheap shots on this side of the pond -- but nothings guaranteed. It seems to me like durability might be the paramount question Mirotic has to answer.
     
  4. such sweet thunder

    such sweet thunder Member Staff Member Moderator

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    Thought this was interesting:

    Asik's situation has very few similarities to Mirotic. With Asik, you had a guy who had played very intermittently due to injury for two seasons of big league European ball at Fenerbahçe. And his skills were limited coming into the league -- they still are. Asik was a talent when he arrived, not a player.

    You could make an argument that Mirotic had more top-level European basketball experience on the day he was drafted than Asik had coming into the league. Mirotic has spent the last four years running pro-style offensive sets. His teammates have generally fell on the spectrum between being end-of-bench NBA scrubs and NBA rotational reserves.

    There's going to be an adjustment period. The defensive schemes will be new. But I'm expecting that to be much closer than 20 games than a whole season.

    I wonder how much European ball Thibodeau watches.
     
  5. Bullsville

    Bullsville Intelligent Bulls Fan

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    A little bit, but not really.

    He injured his hand in the Euroleague final this season, then got into a feud with the coach to the point they didn't speak the rest of the season. http://www.chicagonow.com/bullsville/2014/06/mirotic-bulls-nocioni-real-madrid/

    In his first year of playing time (2011-12), he was outstanding at the end of the season - in the Spanish League finals, when they played 5 games in 11 days, he put up:
    19.2 min
    .594 fg
    .545 3's
    .692 ft
    3.6 reb
    0.2 ast
    0.8 stl
    0.6 blk
    0.6 to
    10.6 pts

    He did struggle in the 2012-13 Spanish finals (again 5 games in 11 days):
    20.8 min
    .378 fg
    .308 3's
    .765 ft
    3.0 reb
    0.2 ast
    1.4 stl
    1.0 blk
    1.4 to
    9.0 pts

    But the two playoff rounds before that, they played 5 games in 12 days, and he was outstanding:
    25.2 min
    .600 fg
    .400 3's
    .750 ft
    7.8 reb
    1.2 ast
    1.6 stl
    1.4 to
    0.2 blk
    12.2 pts

    I think Gasol is a good comparison - in his last year in the Spanish League, Gasol averaged 12.4 points and 5.8 rebounds in 24.7 minutes per game
    This season was Mirotic's last year in the Spanish League, and the stats were very similar: 11.6 points and 5.0 rebounds in 22.1 minutes per game

    Gasol came over and put up almost identical per-minute stats while playing 36.7 minutes per game. 17.6 points and 8.9 rebounds as a rookie.

    The thing to remember is, in Europe they may only play 2 nights a week most of the season, but they practice every day, sometimes twice a day. European practice schedules make Thibs' look like Club Med.

    Serge Ibaka played for Real Madrid during the lockout:
    12 games
    14.2 min
    .588 fg
    .867 ft
    4.3 reb
    0.6 stl
    2.0 blk
    6.1 pts

    You can't really look at stats with Euro players, especially big men. Gasol is exhibit #1.
     
  6. Bullsville

    Bullsville Intelligent Bulls Fan

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    That's a great post- Asik was an elite defender and rebounder in Europe, just as he was when he came here.

    His last Euroleague season, he averaged 10.8 rebounds and 2.6 blocks per 40 minutes
    In his first season in Chicago, he gave us 12.4 rebounds and 2.3 blocks per 40 minutes

    Just like Asik (and Gasol), Niko isn't your average rookie out of college. Even though too many people scoff at Euroleague ball, he's been playing against men, not college boys.

    And these men can play - why the hell do you think Team USA had to start sending our pros to the Olympics and World Championships?
     
  7. rosenthall

    rosenthall Well-Known Member

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    When I look at our rotations I have a hard time seeing Mirotic getting more than 20 minutes unless other guys are injured. I see him coming in late 1st to spell Noah or Gasol and then staying in to play a few minutes with Rose (to open up space) and then heading to the bench. Probably coming in once more in the second half.

    If we have an egalitarian allotment of minutes like this:

    Gasol 28
    Noah 28
    Taj 24

    that still leaves only 16 for him.

    I don't really see him as a 3, but maybe there are some lineups where we could play him as one on offense.
     
  8. Vintage

    Vintage Defeating Communism...

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    I don't think minutes is that big of a deal.

    If Mirotic is ready to contribute from day one, like Pau was, he will cut into the minutes of Noah, Gasol, and Gibson. That should make them fresher come playoff time.

    If not, we have depth and can allow him to develop.

    Either way, we are in a good position.
     
  9. such sweet thunder

    such sweet thunder Member Staff Member Moderator

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    My point was more narrow. I was trying to say that European ball is not European ball is not European ball. There is a great deal of disparity amongst the strength of talent in the various leagues. The Turkish league is fine and gets stronger every year, as are the Greek League and the VTB. Heck, even the German league is starting to put it together. But all of these leagues are mainly just strong at the top. The Spanish league is deep and strong throughout. It's probably better than the Euroleague and has been for many years. It looks to me like a lot of D-List NBA type talents are willing to sign with the weaker teams in Spain because they know how the Spanish big boys often pay more than the NBA, and that the Spanish elite almost exclusively mine new talent from weaker Spanish teams. That was how Kyle Singler made his way to Madrid.

    So yeah, Asik had more experience than a college player coming into the NBA. But it's not fair to Mirotic to compare his experience level with Asik. Mirotic has been playing against the Euroleague alphas for many, many years. It's not going to take him a full season, season-and-a-half to learn Thib's defensive sets. He should have those within 10 to 20 games. And he's going to be familiar with the offense at the very start of the season.
     
  10. such sweet thunder

    such sweet thunder Member Staff Member Moderator

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    Maybe there's a way to synthesize what you and Rosenthal were getting at? I went back and looked at Asik's mpgs in his two seasons with the Bulls. He only averaged 14:42 as a second year player and 12:03 as a rookie. I thought Asik made a relatively large on-court impact, especially his second year. This is my way of saying, if Mirotic averages 16 mpg, as Rosenthal suggested, his rookie season is going to be considered an unequivocal success given the depth on the Bulls' front court. That would be pretty huge.
     
  11. Bullsville

    Bullsville Intelligent Bulls Fan

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    I don't disagree with you, I have no doubt that Mirotic is much more advanced than Asik was coming into the league.

    And that he has played many more games against much tougher competition than Asik had before his rookie season.
     
  12. rosenthall

    rosenthall Well-Known Member

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    This is a very good point.

    I think you're right, given our frontcourt MPG won't be a very good barometer for how valuable Nikola is. I think it was clear to anyone watching the games that Asik was an important part of that team. He played important minutes and finished tight games. Thibs thought very highly of him even though he was getting "only" 14 mpg.

    I suspect it'll be the same with Mirotic. Perhaps only getting burn twice a game, but he won't be a guy that's being played because the team has no other choice. He'll be proactively used to create mismatches and a part of other team's game plans.
     
  13. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    What if he scores a point per minute and hits 46% of his 3pt shots?
     
  14. TomBoerwinkle#1

    TomBoerwinkle#1 Administrator Staff Member Administrator

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    I would imagine if he played 36 minutes per night and scored 36 points per game he would a top ten let alone top 50 player of all time.

    I am guessing there is some metric of limited measurement value to cram the question into and I am sure it is very, very valuable to meausure the limited aspect of player performance it purports to measure.

    So...whazzup?
     
  15. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    I'm asking if he could possibly beat out the others at PF to become the full-time starter and get the bulk of the minutes.
     
  16. TomBoerwinkle#1

    TomBoerwinkle#1 Administrator Staff Member Administrator

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    Ok. Your analysis?
     
  17. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    A point a minute is extreme, admittedly. Ben Gordon was about a point every 1.5 minutes at his best.

    I think it's possible he blows us away, as in unicorn Rose-style. If he does, will Thibs play him if he's not a great defender? Will he play him because we just spent $20M+ on Pau and another $8M+/season on Taj?

    If it were up to me, I'd play the best all-round player. Offense considered first. You have a much better chance of turning McBuckets into an OK defender than you do turning Keith Bogans into a guy who can score a point every 1.5 seconds.
     
  18. rosenthall

    rosenthall Well-Known Member

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    I see what you're saying.

    In general I'd say the answers is yes. If Mirotic really is all that then he'll get the minutes. I think people underestimate how non-ideological Thibs really is. If he think you'll help him win games he'll work you in. Over the years I have not seen Thibs rob minutes from an offensively minded player above and beyond what his play deserved.

    Can anyone provide an example?

    With that said I think there are two important points to consider:

    1). Whenever you look at a players production it's important to consider how generalizable their production is. It's often not, at least without negatively affecting the team in some other way.

    For example, role players are very useful and even essential to having a well functioning team, but their value craters when they don't have a shotmaker to play off of. That's basically what our team was in between Rose and DJ. It was a total mess even though Deng, Boozer, Taj, Noah, etc are all good players that you'd like to have on your team.

    So it's possible that Mirotic might be offensively proficient but still not suited for more minutes given the makeup and goals of the team at large.

    2). As a general rule, I think small players are more impactful with their offense and less impactful with their defense, and big players vice versa.

    So if your big and bad at defense, your offense has to be remarkably good to compensate for your shortcomings. In effect, you almost have to be as offensively good as a guard to mitigate your bad defense. I think Mirotic is probably going to be bad at defense his first year, so he might not merit more than 20 minutes per game even if he is making shots effectively.
     
  19. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    I tried to suggest he would be remarkably good on offense. Unicorn, 1.5 points per minute, etc.

    The thing is, Thibs played Boozer. He started him. Played him 28 minutes a game, and that's after he started playing him Q1/Q3 only in February.

    That suggests some sort of deference to veterans.
     
  20. Bullsville

    Bullsville Intelligent Bulls Fan

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    I agree with you that the myth of "Thibs won't play a guy who isn't a great defender" is completely overblown.

    In 2012-13, Boozer played 32.2 minutes vs 22.4 for Gibson.

    Boozer played 68% of our clutch minutes (last 5 minutes, 5 point game or less), Gibson played 35%.

    In 2010-11, Boozer played 48% of our clutch minutes vs Taj 31%. (And Boozer missed the first 15 games of the season)
    In 2011-12, Boozer played 73% of our clutch minutes vs Taj 43%. There seems to be a general myth among Bulls fans that Asik finished a lot of games ahead of Noah that year, but he only played 10% of our clutch minutes. (Noah played 67% of our clutch minutes).

    In Korver's two seasons, he played 82% and 65% of our clutch minutes, compared with 41% and 46% of overall minutes.

    Like you said, Thibs will play weak defenders late in games. Most teams only have one wing and one PF/C who needs a great defender on them, which is why you'll see Butler and Noah out there almost all the time to close out games. But he knows we offense as well, so we'll see McBuckets play late in games if he can score, same with Mirotic.
     

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