My theory on why Hibbert will come to Portland next year

Discussion in 'Portland Trail Blazers' started by PDXFonz, Jul 28, 2014.

  1. PDXFonz

    PDXFonz I’m listening

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    A week or 2 ago I hashed this theory and posted it in a random thread. After giving it more thought and compiling what I consider to be 'evidence' I decided this needed its own thread.


    First:

    We still don't know the validity of the claims that All-Stars told Aldridge they want to play in Portland. However if there is any truth, or future occurrences involving Aldridges claims, you cannot dispute that Hibbert is perhaps the most likely candidate. Hibbert is one of the top in a position that has long been believed to be the one thing needed to push Portland back into title contention. He is one of the best defenders in the league at any position, and would go a long way in improving the Blazers defense. You would see similar offensive numbers as with Lopez, but you would now have a better defensive player, being backed up by Rolo. A combination that will end up smacking more balls than Jenna Jameson.

    Second:

    While its hard to put stock into anything from social media, or press, I feel that sometimes it shouldn't be overlooked. For example there is this quote from Hibbert - "Portland was on my list of teams that, if Indiana didn't match, it would have been a pretty good opportunity to go out there and play," Hibbert said. "It was pretty serious." I find his second quote about being focused on being a defensive presence the most important of his quotes. Players like to play ball where their game involves what the team asks of him. He will never be a scorer, we don't need that at the center position. The more he is pressured to be a scorer in Indiana, the more they drive him away. With Stephenson gone I would assume that Hibbert will be looked to on the offensive end much more next year. After what could be a hellish season of failed expectations in Indiana, Hibbert will surely be tempted to come to Portland where all that is asked is that he be an anchor on the defensive end while his team mates get it done at the other.

    Next I looked at his Twitter followers. I wasn't at all surprised to see that he was followed by, and follows Aldridge, I wasn't even very surprised that he did the same with Lillard, however I was surprised to see that him and T-Rob follow eachother. I decided to check to see the list of non team mates he follows, and that list was surprisingly small.


    That list includes: John Wall, Russel Westbrook, Harrison Barnes, Tiago Splitter, Nerlens Noel, Julius Randle, Jared Sullinger, Miles Plumlee, Eric Gordon, Kevin Durant, and Andre Drummond.

    He also follows Earl Watson, who was his team mate in Indiana.


    Outside of his previous team mates, Hibbert follows 14 NBA players on twitter. 3/14 of them were on the Blazers roster last season. Aside from Westbrook and Durant in OKC, and Indiana, Portland is the only team he seems to have friendships with multiple players.


    Third:

    Chris Kaman's contract, and this offseason.
    [TWEET]484903145542152192[/TWEET]
    The structuring of Kamans contract, and the lack of any moves that would heavily affect next summers cap situation is an indicator that the team already has a plan which will require as much cap flexibility as possible. I believe that after the Pacers matched Hibbert, Olshey marked his calender for July 1st, 2015. They've planned on targeting Hibbert once he becomes an UFA all along, and the success they have had building the team in between has granted them the tools to pull off a big signing such as this.

    They will need to shed all 4 million of that contract if they want to get Hibbert here and retain matthews. They could however sign Aldridge while paying Kaman the full 5 million next season. One thing is for sure, Paul Allen wont be buying a new yacht next year.

    Lastly, and possibly the most important piece of evidence:

    This current management team has targeted him before. They thought Hibbert was a max player 2 years ago, the difference now is that he has proven it. You cannot argue that the organization won't so much as reach out to Hibbert, they will, that much we know is true. The door will be open at the practice facility next year, and Hibbert WILL be walking through it. Everything else depends on how good his relationship with Dame, Aldridge, T-rob, really is. If hes close with those three, and can hang out with the rest to see for himself how close knit the group is, then I don't think there is any reason he wouldn't consider Portland.

    Finally consider next seasons outcome. It is entirely possible that while the Blazers likely stay competitive in the West, the Pacers take a slip back in the standings in the east. The east is strong enough now that a first round exit for Indiana is not out of the question depending on their seeding. Going from losing the Eastern Conference championship twice, to losing in the first round, would undoubtedly push his decision in our favor.

    If you combine all of these things I believe there is no way Hibbert signs anywhere but Portland next year. The question is, will you be happy when this happens?

    If you don't want Hibbert then I suggest cheering for the Pacers this season.

    Oh yeah, he'll fit right in!(Skip to 1 minute)
    [video=youtube;9c4hY8mQM6Y]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9c4hY8mQM6Y#t=65[/video]
     
    Last edited: Aug 3, 2014
    HailBlazers likes this.
  2. magnifier661

    magnifier661 B-A-N-A-N-A-S!

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    It would be a bitter sweet situation. There is a huge part of me that would love to have Hibbert. But there is another part of me that fell in love with Lopez.

    I know if we get Hibbert, Lopez is gone for sure. I have such mixed emotions about it.
     
  3. jlprk

    jlprk The ESPN mod is insane.

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    In your long post, the evidence for your theory is all from social media. The State Dept. does the same to justify wars.

    [video=youtube;oQRvINebeok]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oQRvINebeok[/video]
     
  4. Strenuus

    Strenuus Global Moderator Staff Member Global Moderator

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    Why does Hibbert have to fight right in? Portland is not a fight club! Oh no, I wasn't supposed to say that.
     
  5. HailBlazers

    HailBlazers RipCity

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    Good a theory as any I've heard about who the All-Star was that wants to play with LA and Dame.

    Man, if we land Hibbert in 2015, the Blazers become instant contenders, and I'll have season tickets for the first time in fifteen years.
     
  6. crandc

    crandc Well-Known Member

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    He could pay them all and still get a new yacht if he wants.

    Aside from that you make an interesting case. We shall see.
     
  7. Minstrel

    Minstrel Top Of The Pops Global Moderator

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    Hello darkness, my old friend
    I don't share your opinion that Portland is inevitable for Hibbert, but I agree it's a possibility. I'd be happy because if Stotts can incorporate Hibbert into the offense, such that he's at least a contributor (even if not an offensive star), Hibbert has the potential to transform Portland's defense without killing their top offense.

    That's definitely worth taking a shot on, because Portland playing nearly as good offense as this past season while being a tough defensive team would make them legitimate title contenders.
     
  8. BBert

    BBert Weasels Ripped My Flesh

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    You forgot the 'real' reason LaMarcus waited on signing his extension was so the Blazers could sign Hibbert first. Duh. ;)
     
  9. Natebishop3

    Natebishop3 Don't tread on me!

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    I'm definitely okay with bringing in Hibbert. I would rather trade for him though, rather than play the Houston game and possibly come away with nothing.
     
  10. Stevenson

    Stevenson Old School

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    I have always wanted to say this -

    I like your analysis. (Get it?!)

    :)
     
  11. 3RA1N1AC

    3RA1N1AC 00110110 00111001

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    watching hibbert put up a series of complete stinkers last year turned me off of him for the most part. maybe its just an INDY problem, but im not sure if i want to find out, especially on a max deal...meh
     
  12. PtldPlatypus

    PtldPlatypus Let's go Baby Blazers! Staff Member Global Moderator Moderator

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    It's debatable whether he's proven himself worthy of a max contract, especially given his performance at the end of this past season.

    Hibbert's comments about not getting touches seem to contradict your claim that Indy is pushing him out by expecting him to be a scorer. It seems that he actually wants MORE scoring opportunities, not fewer.
     
  13. oldmangrouch

    oldmangrouch persona non grata

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    The Pacers are at least as close to contending as the Blazers. The fact they would even consider trading Hibbert is a huge red flag. If he was worth even 75% of his contract, they would never consider it.
     
  14. riverman

    riverman Writing Team

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    I'd still rather have both Lopez bros on the team or Marc Gasol and Rolo. Hibbert, interesting take but I too think we dodged a bullet when Indy matched
     
  15. Strenuus

    Strenuus Global Moderator Staff Member Global Moderator

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    I'd sooooo take Marc Gasol over Hibbert, but Hibbert isn' a bad consolation.
     
  16. Minstrel

    Minstrel Top Of The Pops Global Moderator

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    Hello darkness, my old friend
    Marc Gasol is a no-brainer over Hibbert. He's just as good defensively (arguably even better, as he's versatile enough to adapt to any defensive scheme whereas Hibbert can't) and he's a major offensive plus, while Hibbert is usually an offensive minus.

    But Gasol is going to be in huge demand. Hibbert will probably also be out of Portland's reach, but he's a more realistic target.
     
  17. PDXFonz

    PDXFonz I’m listening

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    I would honestly be concerned about what Marc Gasol would hear about Portland from his Spanish team mates. I really don't think he would want to come here when you consider how many options he will have.

    Why do you think Hibbert is out of our reach? If you were to break down other potential suitors I'm sure you would find indiana and Portland tied atop the list.

    I think we end up getting him for 15.5-16mil
     
    Last edited: Jul 28, 2014
  18. magnifier661

    magnifier661 B-A-N-A-N-A-S!

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    I know gasol isn't as good as Sabas, but he reminds me so much of him. Good passing, good defense, nice shot and great court awareness...
     
  19. PDXFonz

    PDXFonz I’m listening

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    Olshey was on tonight's episode of courtside, he said the Blazers had specific targets in mind going into this offseason, and that they "wanted a third big". Chris Kamans contract is not the kind of contract you give to some one you want as your "third big", it is the contract you give to some one who can fill a 1 year gap that will keep the team competitive.

    There is no reason to believe the blazers would be stockpiling cards only to go fish for Gasol next year. These are the actions of a group who have a plan of action already in the works.
     
    Last edited: Jul 28, 2014
  20. Minstrel

    Minstrel Top Of The Pops Global Moderator

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    Hello darkness, my old friend
    Well, I should rephrase. He's not "probably out of the Blazers' reach," but I think the chances of him ending up in Portland are less than 50% because the chances of any top-level free agent signing with any given team (except the team they played for last year) is generally less likely. I think there's a significantly greater than 50% chance that Indiana simply re-signs him, as the system gives Bird-rights teams a huge edge (and I think the Pacers will want him back, as he and George are the centerpieces of their defense). Of the <50% chance that he leaves Indiana, I could see Portland being front-runners, but there will also be other teams interested and holding cap room.

    So, all in all, I wouldn't expect to see Hibbert as a Blazer next year, but I also wouldn't be shocked if it happened.
     

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