ESPN's summer forecast predicts the Blazers to finish 4th in the West @ 51-31

Can't complain with that

 

So lost a little in this is that they are predicting that the 4th place team will win 51 games!!!! The west is going to be crazy this year.

 

Smart.

 

Remember Blazers one 54 games last year and only finished 5th.

With 51 games, they would have barely made the playoffs.

 

I think the thought is that more competition in the middle of the WC (LAL/NO/PHX/GS/etc all will be better this year), so win totals will be deflated. TBH, I thought that would happen last year, but injuries changed that.

 

Also the West won't feast on the East quite as much in the coming season, when last year there were Miami, Indiana and scrubs.

 

It should be another exciting and interesting season.

 

Hmm... I'm not sure what to make of the East. The ONLY two teams that gave the West fits last season, the Heat and the Pacers, have both gotten a LOT weaker, but overall, there will be more parity in the East this coming season. Still, I think the Cavs would be the ONLY Eastern Conference team that would be a lock to make the playoffs if they were in the Western Conference. Perhaps fewer truly awful teams in the East this year, but outside of Cleveland, I'm seeing a whole lot of mediocrity.

BNM

 

Well, they actually have all four of the top teams winning fewer games this year than the last:

OKC from 59 to 58
SAS from 62 to 57
LAC from 57 to 56
POR from 54 to 51

The complete results aren't posted yet, but they also have HOU, GSW and MEM all winning less than 50 games this season. Looks like they are expecting much more parity in the league, over all, this season.

BNM

 

Ya I know it's a big "if," but DRose is back and healthy, man. If he stays that way, they'll be nasty. Their lineup is sick and Thibs is a monster. I'd put them in the top 4 if they played in the west

 

Agreed, it's a BIG if on DRose. IF he can be healthy and IF he can return to his former level of play. He only played 49 games over the past three seasons and hasn't played at an elite level since 2010-11. He'll have to prove he's really and truly back for me to take Chicago seriously as a contender.

BNM

 

They updated the rest of the west:

1. OKC
2. SAS
3. LAC
4. POR
5. DAL
6. MEM
7. GSW
8. HOU

DAL being a bit overrated here.

 

Agreed. I don't get the Dallas love. They are the ONLY Western Conference team they predict will win more games this year than last. Granted, it's only a 1-game improvement, but it lacks consistency when they predict all the other top 8 will lose more games this year than last.

BNM

 

#4 sounds good to me! Home court in the first round!

 

It's decent--it would have been a great starting lineup several years ago. Nowitzki is still a hell of a player, but he's declined from his prime. Chandler is still a good defender but he also is declining. Harris, as you said. Ellis has fit in well but, like everyone in that lineup currently other than Chandler, plays weak to no defense.

It should be a relatively potent offensive lineup but a declining Chandler won't be able to drag them across the finish line on the defensive end. I think they'll be in the 7/8 seed mix.