Butler is entering his 4th season so he's eligible to sign an extension that would begin after the coming season. Most successful Bulls' draft picks have signed extensions during the Paxson years (Hinrich, Noah, Rose and Gibson). Deng and Ben Gordon played out their 4th seasons without signing extensions (Deng later signed and Gordon didn't). From what I can see, there hasn't been much media-generated debate regarding whether the Bulls should attempt to extend Butler. I've also heard nothing from the Bulls or Butler's camp on the subject. Net, the Bulls world seems to be cool with letting this go to the summer of 2015 when Butler becomes a restricted free agent. Note: unlike Omer Asik, the Bulls would have full "Bird Rights" to match any offer Butler might receive. Butler's career so far has been interesting. He only played 8.5mpg in his rookie season, so there wasn't much to be concluded other than he was clearly a willing defender. In his sophomore NBA season, he played mostly off the bench as a SF and shot very well (38.1% from 3) while continuing to show his defensive chops. Last season, he was named the starter at SG. His outside shooting took a nosedive (under 30 % from 3 and under 40% overall), but he was named to the NBA All-Defense 2nd team. Personally, I'm convinced that Butler is a NBA player, but I'm not sure whether he's starter caliber on a true contender or a super sub. Also, the success or failure of Doug McDermott could play a part in the Bulls valuation of Butler (if McDermott is the real deal at SF, is Butler worth big money at SG)? Tony Snell's development (or lack of it) could also enter into the team's thinking. Sorry to run on so long. What are your thoughts on Butler and that the Bulls apparently don't seem to be in any hurry to extend him?
I think one important point to keep in mind is that improved play from McDermott is likely to increase the value of Jimmy, not diminish it. McDermott and Jimmy are compliments, not substitutes. If McDermott has a great rookie season it's probably because he's shooting lights out and seeing lots of court time. That makes Jimmy's strengths even more important and his weaknesses less important. Ie, Jimmy's lucky he's playing next to Doug and not Deng. Ultimately I think how much other teams desire him depends on what kinds of improvements he makes to his offense. I'm not sure there's a huge market for wing players without a good shot or handle, even if they're great on defense. But if he show he's capable of playing efficient offense then it makes his defensive capabilities that much more appealing. If he has a bad year I think he'll see a contract offer for 6.5-8 million a year. If he has a good year on offense I see this bumping up to 9-11 million per year. If Jimmy can score 13 ppg w/ 16+ PER and his usual defense I'm okay w/ 10 million per. One of the nice side effects of our offseason is that our long term cap structure is clean so signing Jimmy won't mean jettisoning someone else.
I saw a recent video that talked about how the elite defenses feature an elite wing defender and an elite C defender. If you let Jimmy go, we lose our only real elite wing defender. I don't see it happening. I also don't see the Bulls paying Jimmy the kind of money they paid Deng.
Sorry, I didn't use the right wording. Unlike Hinrich, Noah, Rose and Gibson who signed their extensions at the earliest point allowable (between 3rd and 4th seasons), Deng rejected this first extension offer and didn't agree to an extension until after completing his 4th season.
Mark Deeks @MarkDeeksNBA @McGrawDHBulls I spoke to an NBA executive the other day who said they would happily max Butler. Double checked and he wasn't joking. This surprised me.
I read the Bulls have $58M committed for 2015-16. A $15M contract for Jimmy puts them close to the LT, no?
PippenAintEasy. That's where I read it. I checked sham's site and it says $63M with a $5M cap hold for Jimmy, so the $58M number looks right.
Is it or is it not going to be a consideration? If someone offers him MAX money as first year salary, will the Bulls match?
Unless it's on a short deal, then I think the answer is no. I think going up to about 10 million or so is justified. Part of maintaining a team is figuring who and when you're going to pay them. But a max contract for Butler seems like an anchor to me that prevents the team from making other moves. Would you want to sign Jimmy Butler for the max?
I don't think the Bulls would pay him over $10M. Maybe not even $10M. It depends on how good a season he has, obviously. Same as last year? For his defense alone he's going to command some offers. The thing is, I'm responding to K4E's post about other teams offering him MAX. That would be in the $15M range. Do the Bulls match?
Looking to one season later, the Bulls would be at $61M (with Jimmy at $15M), but that's without Noah's contract on the books at all. If they re-sign him at $15M, they're over, too.
I feel like you are overstating things. I don't think you can say you feel comfortable with your starting shooting guard if they can't shoot, especially if you're the Bulls. The NBA is a copycat league, and the success of the Suns last season showed how easy it is to score if you always keep three dead-eyes on the floor. The Bulls only have like two shooters on the roster, and both of them are rookies. My overall point is that, okay, McDermott may cover for some of JB's weaknesses, but the Bulls still need a ton more shooting, and I'm not sure where they're going to get it. The Bulls had the 27th worst offense last year (offensive efficiency) in front of only the Philadelphia and Orlando. Yuck. Let's look at this another way. If the Bulls were able to sign the 2014 version of Ray Allen (who can't really run anymore) is there a chance that he would start and take a not inconsequential number of minutes away from Butler? That's what I see happening. And if that's the case, then how much is Butler really worth to this team? It was one thing when you had 2-3 tandems like Wade and Lebron in Miami, and Harden and Durant in OKC. I don't think a defensive stopper is as valuable as it might have been at one time. Now the Bulls need shooting. Butler doesn't seem like a particularly good fit.
Following on my previous comment, I don't think this is an Asik/Deng situation where the Bulls are risking holding on to Butler for a season too long, and getting nothing in return. If Butler is somehow able to turn his shooting around -- which is possible but very unlikely -- then he would be a hell of an asset. Might as well take one more season to see what you have. I don't think he'd fetch you all that much on the open market.
I tend to agree with you and this shapes the thinking of what you might expect the team to be willing to pay him when he's a RFA.
I see what you're getting at but I'm not sure that's accurate. It seems to me like GMs are much more careful when evaluating trades than they are when deciding whether to sign free agents to big money. So while I don't think there's probably going to be much talent available via trade, I wouldn't at all be surprised if some team drops a bag full of money on his doorstep when hes an RFA. Would you agree? Maybe it has something to do with wanting to avoid the embarrassment of getting fleeced in a deal, when you can always blame a player if they don't live up to a contract.
No, I can't say that I've ever seen a player for whom I thought, "If he was a free agent, I'd throw $10 or $15 million per at the guy, but I wouldn't want to give up a solid bench player or a middlin' draft pick for him." I saw the Deeks quote about someone willing to pay Butler the max and just thought that if it's true, see ya, Jimbo 'cause I ain't matching that insanity...and I'm "Mr. I Defense" and a Butler fan. I mentioned a comparison of Butler to Bruce Bowen earlier in this thread. Bowen made 8 NBA All-Defense teams, but never made $5mil in a season. Nothing I've read recently would indicate that a new super-premium is being placed on wing defenders. To the contrary, everyone's shooting, and particularly 3-point shooting crazy these days. Obviously I could be wrong, but I have trouble believing that the 2013-14 Jimmy Butler is worth 8 figures per year.
