2014-15 Season: What are you optimistic/pessimistic about?

Discussion in 'Chicago Bulls' started by rosenthall, Oct 4, 2014.

  1. rosenthall

    rosenthall Well-Known Member

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    The season's just about here.

    We'll even get to see our first glimpse of the team on October 6 when they play the Wizards.

    So let's put our thoughts on record about what we think is going to or not going to happen.

    This'll be a fun bump mid-season.

    Here's my take:

    What I'm Optimistic About

    1). I'm optimistic about the Bulls putting together a good regular season. We've seen Thibs squeeze out 45 win seasons with half as much talent. We have one of the best frontcourts in the league. The east sucks. We're 11 deep. Everyone seems to be a team player.

    I think even if Rose's recovery sputters, Pau loses a step and the rooks don't find their games we should be able to win 50 games rather easily.

    We seriously have 4-5 more legitimate NBA players than the last two years.

    2). I'm optimistic about the Rooks panning out. As SST pointed out, Mirotic might be the most prepared player to ever enter the NBA. Teams were offering lotto picks for him in a loaded draft. Thibs and Noah sure have good things to say about him.

    McDermott's a hand-in-glove fit for what he does here. Both of them have the benefit of playing on a veteran well-coached team that'll allow them to start with a small role that they're well suited for.

    I don't really know if they'll blow up or achieve their theoretical ceilings, but I think the odds are good both will find ways to play at least 10-15 minutes that really matter. And not just minute-eating either. Minutes where they play because they're genuinely important for matchups.

    3). I'm optimistic about getting a new bench mob and playing like we did in 2011-2012. Assuming he has good players, I actually think Thibs likes going deep into his bench, especially in the frontcourt.

    Look at the guys he's refused to play over the years. They all sucked.

    Given the injury concerns over our top players it wouldn't make sense not to utilize the bench. Aaron Brooks might be our 11th man and he's a water bug point guard who averaged 20 points per game four years ago. (He's 29 now).

    4). I'm confident about the team being able to put together a top 10ish offense. I say top 10ish because I'm not confident it'll literally be top 10. But it'll be good enough to beat most teams. In the past I never thought our offense suffered from poor schemes or execution. Just crappy personnel.

    If everyone plays their role passably well we should have enough to be dangerous on offense. Not elite, but enough passing, shooting, ball movement, and dribble penetration to buoy our elite defense and create a top 5-10 team.

    5). I'm optimistic about Pau having a bounce back year. He sure looked good in the world's. He won't be shooting corner three's. He'll be on a winning team that wants him to be here. He won't shoulder the burden of heavy expectations. Our offense is really good at running things through the high-post.

    I think he'll have a substantial bump in efficiency that'll move the needle for the team.

    What am I pessimistic about?

    1). I'm pessimistic about Jo repeating his performance last year. We know he won't be playing point-center again, but that's not what I'm talking about. The voice in my head thinks last year is the best Jo we're ever going to see.

    I wouldn't be surprised if his career arc resembles that of Ben Wallace. I'm also concerned about his knee injury. Serious knee injuries to hustle players that rely on their athleticism going into their 30's usually doesn't bode well for the future.

    I wouldn't be surprised if it's an on-going issue which affects his play throughout the year.

    2). I'm not optimistic about Jimmy Butler having a breakout year. I think Jimmy's a worker, but I don't think he's a high usage player on offense. His shots will be limited on our new team, which leaves him as an elite defender who can play passably good offense within a team concept.

    Well, that's what he was before this year.

    3). I'm not optimistic about Derrick Rose returning to peak form. At least not this year.

    In the World championships my eyes told me he's retained a lot of his explosiveness but has two years worth of rust.

    He also has to regain his trust in his body, and more importantly, regain a wide variety of very subtle body movements that made him an elite player. That might not ever comeback, and if it does I wouldn't be surprised if it took two years.

    I also wouldn't put it past the team to have a lot of internal strife over how he's handled. And that's coming from all sides: Rose, Thibs, and management.

    4). I'm not optimistic about the Bulls beating the Cavs in a 7 game series. Don't call me a pessimist. I'm not. I think the Bulls are going to have a good year. They're a good bet to have the best record in the east, maybe the whole NBA, and make it to the eastern conference finals.

    They have a lot going for them.

    But the Cavs have three of the 20 best players in the NBA right now. I think most of the criticisms made against Kevin Love are false, with the exception of those made about his defense. That really is bad.

    But not making the playoffs, not being "clutch", not being able to adjust his game, etc....it's all bullshit. His offense is a natural fit playing next to Lebron. He'll fill the Bosh role on offense much better than Bosh. He played great on the world championships next to other superstars. He'll do great.

    Lebron's still numero uno in the league, and I'm afraid David Blatt's going to be a really, really good coach.

    I think the Bulls have a punchers chance, but the Cavs are 2-1 favorites in a best of 7.
     
    Last edited: Oct 4, 2014
  2. bullsger

    bullsger Moderator Staff Member Moderator

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    I'm optimistic about...

    1) Derrick Rose will be healthy. I'm not expecting him to play 82 games, but that he he don't have a season ending injury again.

    2) McDermott will be at the top 3 at 3-point-FGM by Bulls rookies. Not sure about why.

    3) Bulls will win about 55 games


    I'm not optimistic about...

    1) Winning it all this season. Cavs hard to beat in 7-games-series and Rose will need his time.

    2) Mirotic be the most prepared player to ever enter the NBA.
     
  3. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    I'm optimistic because the east really sucks. We improve by standing pat and watching all but the Cavs regress. So the additions should help a lot. I'm hoping McBuckets dazzles the shit out of us and turns into an elite scorer in this league.

    I'm pessimistic about the lack of balance on the roster. We're overly deep at PF/C and aside from Rose, we're not very good at the guards and SF spot. If McBuckets does come through, we have 3 scoring options out of 5 positions (Rose, Gasol, McBuckets) and 2 mostly defensive players (Jimmy and Noah).

    I'm pessimistic about Noah's knee surgery. It may rob him of his one clear advantage as a player - agility.

    I'm hopeful yet pessimistic that Rose comes back to the point where he's considered the elite PG in the league, or at least top 3. Right now, it's a huge stretch to put him in the company of a lot of guys - like Westbrook, Curry, Lillard, etc. He WAS there, but what has he done lately?
     
  4. transplant

    transplant Global Moderator Staff Member Global Moderator

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    Rose's knees seem to be fine. Gasol still looks like a stud.

    On the other side, Noah's never been through a knee surgery recovery. I can easily see him being tentative which is almost certain to be a bad look on Noah.

    Beyond that, everything either reflects our sunny of cloudy disposition of is a hunch.

    My hunches include McDermott and Mirotic showing well.

    I have no reason to questíon the conventional wisdom that says the Bulls will be #2 in the East. I don't have a strong feeling about how the playoffs will go for the Bulls.

    I plan to revisit this thread after the preseason.

    Sent from my Venue 8 Pro 5830 using Tapatalk
     
  5. rosenthall

    rosenthall Well-Known Member

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    Bump.

    With preseason fully in our rearview mirrow, here's how I'd update my priors based on what I've seen so far:

    1). Rose looks more ready to have a great season than I would have thought before preseason started. He's really looked great the last two games, and not manic like last preseason.

    2). I think the two rooks are doing well, but if they're going to become alpha players in the rotation it might take most of the year to get there. Both are better on defense than I would have anticipated.

    3). I'm more optimistic about Pau's defense and less optimistic about his offense after going through the preseason. On defense I thought we were going to get Boozer, but instead we got Asik. Pau blocked 19 shots in preseason, which is 3 less than Boozer blocked all of last year. This makes some things a lot easier, because it means we can probably pair him with either Taj or Noah without creating egregious mismatches. Boozer was so bad on defense you couldn't really hide him anywhere.

    His offense however, has been pretty lethargic. He's been fine w/ regards to facilitating flow and fitting in, but underwhelming with that whole "second option on a championship team" stuff we were hoping for.

    4). I'm more concerned about our roster balance than we were at the beginning of the season. I think there's a very good chance our best big man combos are exactly what we won't see very often. Noah and Gasol get the starting spots due to seniority and pedigree, but they clog up the middle and get in each other's way. Splitting the two up and pairing them both with one of Mirotic/Taj might be a more natural fit but it's probably hard to do that due to politics.

    And given Gasol's comments about wanting to play at the end of games, I think there's a very real chance we experience some of the same late game tensions we've had in the past. My hunch is that Thibs is going to go back to the Taj/Noah frontcourt as his default at the end of games.

    5). We're still going to have a problem with a second shot-creator this season.

    6). I'm genuinely curious about Butler's evolution as an offensive player this year. The guy just doesn't seem like a pure shooter, but it looks like he has a lot of potential to develop a Metta World Peace-like game with his strength and knack for drawing contact. I think one of the biggest dangers with Jimmy will be trying to turn him into something he's not.

    I think it's becoming clear that there are certain aspects of offense that he's really good at, but they're atypical for his position.
     
  6. transplant

    transplant Global Moderator Staff Member Global Moderator

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    Rose is all that. He's got a chip on his shoulder and peeps gonna pay.

    The rookie shooters did everything pretty well except shoot. I see this as a problem. I mean, I know they can shoot, but they kinda need to actually make shots.

    As a strong secondary scorer, Gasol's been a great shot blocker. I've been a Gasol fan for decades, but watching him in preseason, I don't quite have the imagination to see him as a 17+ point per game scorer this season.

    I've short-changed Butler. Until the last couple games where Rose shined, Butler was easily the Bulls' best player this preseason and is Thibodeau's new Luol Deng. If you're going to let Thibodeau kill him like he did Deng, pay the man for Godsakes.
     
  7. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    Mirotic ended up playing just 8 minutes in the final game. A game which Thibs looked like he was playing his preferred lineup for the most part, though less minutes than we'll expect in the regular season.

    He averaged 16 minutes a game, 6 points, 2.25 rebounds, shot .417 and .273 from 3pt, and had a PER of 11.

    McDermott averaged 26 minutes a game and 8/5 on .350 shooting and .286 from 3pt and a PER of 11 also.

    Rose needs to explain to them how the chip thing works.

    Gasol averaged 10/8 in 28 minutes. If you're expecting 17 points from him, you have to play him more than 28 minutes. He only shot .403.
     
  8. rosenthall

    rosenthall Well-Known Member

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    I'm torn whether I should be optimistic about this or not. On one hand both are great shooters, and shooting usually translates as long as your stroke is good. They both have good strokes. McDermott's looks elite. But we might have the Tony Snell situation all over again. A supposedly good shooter with a sweet looking stroke.....who doesn't put the ball in the basket.

    He's in year two and I'm still waiting for him to make shots. It'll be a disappointing season if we go through the same thing with Doug and Nikola.
     
  9. truebluefan

    truebluefan Administrator Staff Member Administrator

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    Looks like, barring injury, Mirotic will have to earn his minutes. He may have some nights where he plays more if his is shot is on.

    As for Snell, similar. Barring injury to Butler or Hinrich, Snell will not play all that much
     
  10. truebluefan

    truebluefan Administrator Staff Member Administrator

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    We need a dynamic wing player. That seems to be our weakness.
     
  11. transplant

    transplant Global Moderator Staff Member Global Moderator

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    Scoring is, was and figures to be the Bulls' weakness. I think Rose is going to average around 20ppg which will help a lot. Somehow, the Bulls need to get at least 30 out of the wings and at least 35 or so out of their bigs.
     
  12. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    It's not the 20 PPG that matters as much as the 20 point quarters, and having guys who can ISO.

    Remember above all else, it was the Triangle Defense that won championships.
     
  13. transplant

    transplant Global Moderator Staff Member Global Moderator

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    Please expand on these thoughts. Thanks.
     
  14. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    A guy who can score 20 in a quarter keeps you in games, builds big leads, and disheartens opponents.

    Thibs stresses defense. GarPaxDorf seem to as well. We had success with the Triangle OFFENSE, defense wasn't the bulk of what the dynasty was about.
     
  15. transplant

    transplant Global Moderator Staff Member Global Moderator

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    Very nostalgic, but personally I'm not trying to relive the dynasty. Recent champs have tended to be very good deefensive teams. In any case, there are more than a few ways to build a championship team.
     
  16. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    Almost 20 years since we've seen one of those.
     
  17. transplant

    transplant Global Moderator Staff Member Global Moderator

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    They're hard to win, no doubt about that.
     
  18. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    It might help if the team emulated what is successful for other teams instead of trying to invent some new way to win a championship.
     
  19. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    I'm pessimistic about the Bears' chances.

    [​IMG]
     
  20. truebluefan

    truebluefan Administrator Staff Member Administrator

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    LOL going out on a limb there Denny? Pessimistic about the Bears?
     

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