You can see it in his play that he's going for a career year. A young guard/wing who can defend and score. What is his value? I see it near the max in the crazy world we live in. He can make big money in this market.
I'm sure we all hope he has that career year. If he re-signs with the Bulls, I'm sure we all hope he has career years in all subsequent seasons. If Butler can score something like 16ppg on .550 TS% type efficiency, I agree that the first year of his new contract will be 8 figures.
My brain says no. Besides the usual disagreements that occur in these kind of negotiations, you have the colossal question of just how the new TV deal will impact new contracts.
If Jimmy becomes RFA, what are the odds (in your mind) he ends up back with the Bulls? I think < 30%.
No way we match on a max offer if Butler becomes an RFA. He might be worth the max, but the Bulls FO will play hard ball with him.
Unlike the Asik situation, the Bulls have full Bird rights with Butler...no "poison pill" season. Because of Reinsdorf, the Bulls won't agree to what appears to be a stupid contract. Reinsdorf's pathology is all about making good deals. If Butler has a sub-par season, but some other team is willing to bet against the trend, I can see the Bulls letting Butler walk rather than paying him big money. On the other hand, if Butler has a good season and what he's offered elsewhere is not too outlandish, I'd expect the Bulls to match.
I expect if he improves by 2 PPG, he is going to be offered well into 8 figures. More than Noah makes. Definitely more than Taj.
Yeah, but Butler isn't going to score 16 ppg on that level of efficiency right? You're suggesting that Butler is going to learn how to shoot. I don't think we've seen anything to suggest that we should expect that. As to the OP, I wouldn't be surprised if Butler doesn't receive the offers you're anticipating. The new recipe seems to be to keep three shooters on the floor at all times, if you're looking at the Suns and kind of the Spurs. I think there's merit to the trend too. If you could pluck Klay Thompson off of Golden State (who by the way is going to sign for less than a max deal for security reasons (http://espn.go.com/nba/preview2014/story/_/id/11683092/klay-thompson-verge-big-score)) and put him on the Bulls I think you'd have a roster that would be favored to win a championship. If Jimmy Butler can't score efficiently and predictably off of his jumper, there's going to be a ceiling to his value and the offers he receives.
I can see Jimmy becoming a reliable shooter with his feet set, but I can't see him being a high usage player. The best thing about his offense is that he knows to stick to what he's good at and makes it work. My early impressions from preseason are that he'll be the biggest beneficiary of Pau's presence on offense. He's almost perfect for getting guys like Butler good looks at the basket, which might allow Jimmy to have a lot of 14 point nights on 5-8 shooting w/ 3-4 FTA's, which might trick a few desperate GM's into thinking he can manufacture that kind of offense on his own.
Gasol and Butler have been playing well together. I would not be surprised to see Butler's scoring average rise this season. As for extension. I can see the Bulls waiting to see what he is offered. If we make the NBA finals, we may match any offer.
http://www.dailyherald.com/article/20141017/sports/141018355/ Mike McGraw suggests $12M would be rejected by Butler's camp. Seen this movie before. He'll sign a big deal and the Bulls won't match. Fiscal flexibility, and Kirk is just as good for way cheaper.
If he keeps playing the way he has played in preseason then he could turn that down. We have burned in the past. Gordon, Deng, Asik, although Asik was a surprise. We still may match due to the TV revenue. But, in the past is says we don't.