NBA Writers: How about you write more like this guy?

magnifier661 · Nov 21, 2014

I mean come on you lazy hacks... All you have to do is look at the stats and you would know that our bench problems are a thing of the past. Here is a nice write up about the Blazer's bench and how Stotts has become the master rotation puppeteer.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/stor...s-key-bulls-blazers-nba?ex_cid=espnapi_public

When Bulls coach Tom Thibodeau shakes hands with Blazers counterpart Terry Stotts before Friday's game, he might want to ask Stotts how Portland keeps rolling out the same lineup game after game. Like Thibodeau, Stotts leans heavily on his starting lineup, yet his players absorb the heavy minutes seemingly without repercussions. If player availability were really under a coach's control, Thibodeau would certainly love to discover the secret.

Stotts has been more egregious than Thibodeau when it comes to pushing the minutes of his starters, though the coaches are more similar than different in that regard. Over the past three years, the Blazers have ranked 30th, 28th and 30th, in terms of average minutes per reserve. Thibodeau's Bulls have finished 24th and 25th the past two years, respectively, but have moved up to 20th this season despite the ongoing injury plague in Chicago. The injury issue is where the coaches differ. Last season, the Blazers used just two different starting lineups all season, and had four players start all 82 games, though this season Stotts has already used three different starting lineups. The Bulls, meanwhile, rolled out 17 different starting lineups last season, and this season the total has already climbed to six.

There is a good reason Stotts has been so reluctant to go to the reserves: his benches the past two seasons have not been good. As for Thibodeau, despite the constant upheaval in his starting lineup, he has managed to extract extraordinary value from his reserve units. And he's done it more with quality than quantity.

Back in 2010-11, the Bulls' second unit was one of the most effective in the NBA, earning the moniker of "Bench Mob." Led by Kyle Korver, Taj Gibson and Omer Asik, Chicago's reserves were a big reason the Bulls won 62 games that season, along with the MVP season of Derrick Rose. Chicago ranked fourth in bench WARP that season (10.97) despite ranking 28th in average reserve minutes. Unfortunately, salary-cap realities forced a gradual dissolution of that bench group leading up to last season when the Bulls were short-handed on an almost nightly basis.

That was supposed to change this season. With Rose (hopefully) back in action full time, and the additions of Pau Gasol, Aaron Brooks, Nikola Mirotic and Doug McDermott, the Bulls are trying to replicate the depth model that worked so well in 2010-11. Ongoing issues for Rose, along with various other injuries to Jimmy Butler, Joakim Noah and Gasol, have hampered the plan. Meanwhile, as Amin Elhassan recently pointed out, Portland's need to improve a thin bench is one of its key issues this season. On the surface, when you look at the rank in reserve minutes, the Blazers seem to be stuck in the same boat.
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Blazers are 16th in the league for bench WARP at a +0.51

However, Chicago and Portland have gotten very similar production from their reserves, which is good news for the Blazers, and a problem for the Bulls. This can all be quantified, of course, and once you do the math, some of these depth-generated narratives don't play out like you'd think. Quality depth is a hot commodity across the league in wake of the Spurs winning the title last season despite every player on their roster averaging fewer than 30 minutes per game, a first in league history.

With the issue of roster depth under the spotlight, let's look at the reserve units across the league. Are teams like the Bulls rushing to emulate the San Antonio depth model? Are teams like the Blazers outliers? Do these teams even fit the molds we think they fit?

To look at the issue, I captured the past 10 years of game logs from basketball-reference.com, which notes on each line of data if a player was a starter or reserve. Using this, I was able to calculate each player's WARP (wins above replacement) strictly for the time he spent on the court as a reserve. From there, I was able to roll up team and league metrics. (Yes, this is what I do for fun.)

Let's start with trends at the league level. So far this season, the average reserve is getting 15.7 minutes per game. This is down just a tad from last season, though it's so early the number will still fluctuate. Over the past 10 years, the league's reserve MPG has ranged from 15.6 to 16.4.

The WARP produced by reserves has fluctuated more, from 106.6 in 2006-07 to 170.3 in 2009-10. Last season, that figure was 123.8. Beyond that, the trends have dovetailed with overall league trends: Reserves are taking more 3s but are getting fewer offensive boards and free throw attempts. Efficiency is up this season, but it's been more due to 2-point field goal percentage than success behind the arc.

You usually hear reserve strength communicated in terms of bench scoring per game, which is a pretty backwards way to look at any basketball issue. Using WARP yields some surprising news: Portland has gotten more from its reserves this season than Chicago. The Blazers rank 16th with 0.51 bench WARP this season, while the Bulls rank 18th at 0.33. Chicago has had to use Gibson and Kirk Hinrich as starters, among others, so its disappointing rank is no real surprise. The Blazers' improvement has to be looked at as a great sign, however. Chris Kaman has been the chief contributor, and so far looks like one of the better pickups of the offseason.

As for the Bulls, we don't yet know if they will be able to create Bench Mob 2.0. We'll know more when, and if, Thibodeau is actually able to use his reserves as reserves.

Bench-related notes from around the league

• The Dallas Mavericks have flashed the league's best bench in the early going, with Brandan Wright leading all bench players in reserve WARP. At the other end of the spectrum, the Warriors' bench has struggled. So too has the bench of the injury-depleted Thunder, which nevertheless leads the league in average minutes per reserve. In fact, if OKC's reserve MPG of 20.2 were to hold up, which it won't if the Thunder get some players back, it would be the highest total in the 10-year period I looked at.

• The Spurs, as you'd expect, lead everyone in reserve WARP over the past 10 years, and the past five years. San Antonio is second, however, if you drill down to the past three years. The Mavericks have had the NBA's most productive bench over that span.

• Whether you look at the past 10 years all together, or just the past three years, the most productive reserve is the same player: Manu Ginobili, who has 49.3 WARP as a reserve over his past 10 seasons. His individual winning percentage over that span off the bench is .679. His overall winning percentage is .676. Starting nor not, he's still Manu.

• Under George Karl, the Denver Nuggets ranked in the top four in reserve WARP for six straight seasons ending when Karl was fired after the 2012-13 season.

• James Harden ranks ninth in reserve WARP over the past decade even though he's now well established as an All-NBA starting shooting guard. Only Ginobili has had a higher single-season total than Harden's 9.0 reserve WARP in 2011-12.

• This comes up about New York's J.R. Smith all the time, including just the other day after Smith had a solid game starting in place of injured Iman Shumpert. Smith ranks second to Ginobili in reserve WARP over the past decade. His winning percentage as a reserve is .538. His overall winning percentage is .515, a drop-off of 4.6 percent.
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We should thank Olshey to hold his guns and make minor adjustments for Stotts. The two have done such a superb job with what they've had!

KUDOS BLAZERS!

3RA1N1AC · Nov 21, 2014

am i breaking dennys rules if i read this?

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NBA Writers: How about you write more like this guy?

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