The Rookies

Discussion in 'Chicago Bulls' started by rosenthall, Nov 24, 2014.

  1. rosenthall

    rosenthall Well-Known Member

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    A lot of chatter is gathering around Bulls nation about the performance of the two rookies to date.

    There was a lot of concern for both, but the alarm around Mirotic has died down quite a bit since his last couple of games. (Putting up 24 and 11 does a lot to quell people's anxiety, even if it's in garbage time).

    However, A quiet storm is brewing around the impotence of McDermott's performance.

    For the record, I'm not that concerned about either right now. I think it was clear from day 1 that Mirotic has a very good combination of skills/tools for his position....maybe the best in this draft class. The only thing holding him back is rookie stuff like picking up dumb fouls, not being familiar with defensive assignments, etc.

    In terms of what he's capable of doing I think he's got a straight flush. I'm even impressed with his defensive potential.....I can see him filling Taj's shoes someday.

    But in any event, people have shut up about him after his last couple outings.

    And by the numbers he's not too too bad right now:

    He's 4th among rookies in PER that have played over 100 minutes so far, and his advanced metrics are also tipping positive.

    I know we're all smart enough to realize the folly of drawing anything from these stats right now, but this is what's providing the fuel for the chatter around them so I brought it up.

    McDermott has yet to escape the grips of criticism.

    So far he's doing nothing well. What has most people concerned is that he's having a hard time getting shots up, which is supposed to be his bailiwick.

    No one expected him to be a good defender at this point, but the fact that he can't get more than 10 shots/36 minutes has people concerned he won't be able to get the separation necessary to play his offensive game.

    If he can't do that he's a spot-up shooter with below average size/athleticism. Those guys aren't worth very much.

    So far I think these fears are half-founded.

    What's the unfounded half?

    He's a rookie with 180 minutes under his belt. There are a lot of players who looked really bad during this time in their careers and still came out alright. Ben Gordon and Elton Brand are two guys who had the commentariat up in arms at the beginning of their rookie seasons that turned things around pretty quickly.

    I think he's clearly playing with some nerves and trying to do too much. Once this settles down I won't be surprised to see him start knocking down more shots, which would probably calm everyone down.

    Would you be surprised to see him have a game where he goes 4-5 and scores 11 points in 16 minutes? I wouldn't. Doug's game is outside-in and I think once he can establish a few beneficial patterns for himself other stuff will fall into place.

    I think a lot of his defensive problems are due to trying to do too much, not being inept.

    His shot looks fine to me.

    A decent portion of his game inside the three-point line he's been able to do, albeit in low-volume.

    What's the founded part?

    Guys are sticking themselves right in his chest and he can't seem to shake them. They're daring him to beat them with anything but his shooting and so far it's working.

    A decent part of his game hasn't translated. I know he used his one-step fadeaway a lot in college AND summer league and it hasn't gotten him anywhere in the pros. I've seen him try and use it a few times and he couldn't get it off at all.

    He was supposed to be this super-ready-role-player-in-a-box guy that could just come in and do this thing. Hasn't happened yet.

    Guys who can't physically translate their game often have a bigger adjustment to make than guys who have tools but are "raw."

    It took Korver a while to become who he is today. Ditto JJ Reddick. Trajan Langdon couldn't do it. So far Jimmer hasn't.

    Doug's game is different than those guys, but there IS a possibility that Doug will have to really re-work his game to be effective in the pros.

    I don't think that's entirely going to be the case, but you can't dismiss it right now.
     
  2. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    Awesome read.

    I'd add that Doug had all his success in college at the 4 and he's being asked to play the 3 in Chicago. At the 3, his foot speed makes him easy to stick as you mentioned. At the 4, he was used to being able to draw bigger and less athletic guys (than SFs) to the perimeter and he might just be athletic enough to drive around those types. Probably less so in the pros, but could a guy like Nene really guard him out there?
     
  3. kukoc4ever

    kukoc4ever Let's win a ring! Staff Member Moderator

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    I don't spend much time scouting college guys for the pros.

    When I heard McDermott played PF in college that was a concern for me, since he clearly won't be playing PF in the pros.

    SO far, he doesn't look like a NBA player to me, but rookies develop slowly at times. Of course, he was supposed to be more mature since he had all those years in college.

    I have not seen much evidence that he can score effectively in the pros. He looks cumbersome with the ball and just cumbersome moving around in general out there.

    The nice thing is there is no hurry to have him develop. The Bulls should be focusing on winning the NBA title this season. If he can give the team 10-15 quality minutes at the end of this season, that is a big win, since we have guys that can play. Dunleavy is fine as the 5th starter / glue guy and with Rose / Butler / Gasol we have scorers now. Brooks and Dunleavy can stick threes / stretch the D.

    If anything, I would be totally open to trading McDermott for a veteran, quality SG or SF that could be a key contributor on a title run the next two seasons.

    We have a great assemblage of NBA talent right now. The time to strike is now. This isn't rookie development mode. And he's only the 11th pick in the draft to begin with.

    The Cavs didn't think twice about trading Wiggins for Love, because they are all in for the next two seasons. McDermott is no Wiggins.

    Niko on the other hand looks like he has a NBA game. Of course, that doesn't mean he'll be a great NBA player. So far, he reminds me of a more reboundy VladRad.

    [video=youtube;YnBtr2ORWeo]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YnBtr2ORWeo[/video]
     
    Last edited: Nov 25, 2014
  4. transplant

    transplant Global Moderator Staff Member Global Moderator

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    McDermott played PF in college only in the sense that the Bluejays needed him near the basket on defense since, besides being the (2013-14) team's leading scorer, he was also their best rebounder (he had over 100 more rebounds than the second-highest rebounder).

    McDermott didn't play PF on offense at Creighton, nor did he play any of the other 4 traditional positions...he played star. The 2013-14 Creighton offense wasn't exclusively designed to get McDermott shots, but he had a usage % of 36.2% (in the NBA last season, only Kobe Bryant at 37.4% was higher).

    When teams played man-to-man against Creighton, McDermott was typically defended by the opponent's best athlete with lots of help. When teams zoned Creighton or went with man-zone hybrids, those defenses were designed with McDermott in mind...and he still got off his shots and made 53% of them.

    I don't believe that the PF in college thing made for any sort of adjustment for him on offense. The adjustment is on defense because McDermott went from being essentially a free safety at Creighton to chasing some of the best athletes in the world all over NBA courts.

    I hope McDermott's confidence is still there. With the exception of his 10-shot game against the Blazers, McDermott has pretty much kept his gun in its holster since the first week of the season...in half of his last 10 games, he's taken no shots or 1 shot.
     
  5. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    Well, if he was guarded by SFs, then Creighton's actual SF would have a mismatch advantage against the defensive PF.
     
  6. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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  7. transplant

    transplant Global Moderator Staff Member Global Moderator

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    Yeah, at Creighton, just about all of McDermott's teammates had favorable matchups whenever McDermott was on the floor. If only any of them were good enough to take advantage, they'd've made more noise in the tourney.

    Sent from my Venue 8 Pro 5830 using Tapatalk
     
  8. such sweet thunder

    such sweet thunder Member Staff Member Moderator

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    Did you guys see this rather excellent related post at RealGM?

    http://forums.realgm.com/boards/posting.php?mode=quote&f=10&p=41762989

     
  9. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    I came to the conclusion our system sets sucks in getting quality shots for our SG. That's why I surmise Jimmy had an off year last year.

    This season, he's not running around screens getting turnaround shots. He's looking like Deng in that he gets the ball on the wing and shoots outside or drives to the basket. Often enough he gets the ball in the post against smaller guys.

    Don't be fooled by what you think the positions are. Jimmy plays SF on offense, SG on defense. Jimmy plays SF when he's in the game with Rose+Hinrich or Brooks+Hinrich.

    I am a fan of Thibs' offensive scheme, but Doug looks like a square peg being pounded into a round hole. It'll fit if you hit it with a big enough hammer enough times.

    The alternative would be to design custom plays for Doug that are specifically suited to his strengths.
     
  10. such sweet thunder

    such sweet thunder Member Staff Member Moderator

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    I had some similar sentiments. I don't think it's so much that Thibs' offensive schemes get sg's inferior shots as it is that Doug McDermott is currently going through the growing pains of learning new vocabulary. Every coach runs floppy action -- the Bulls are no different.

    I also don't think the positional assignments you make concerning Butler are accurate. I see the Bulls playing match ups with their swing men more than they're playing positions. I agree though that I don't need to watch Butler run floppy action anymore.
     
  11. rosenthall

    rosenthall Well-Known Member

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    Good read SST.

    I don't think the McDermott/PF thing has meaning for the reasons Transplant noted. The Creighton offense was designed to get Doug the shots he wanted, which was all over the court. The official position he played was inconsequential.

    It's hard to imagine Doug having a post game in the pros....he doesn't have the body for it. I think his shooting and box-game will translate the best. One of the big insights I took from SST's post is that Doug's crafty around the basket and is good at getting off unorthodox shots......a lot like Antawn Jamison. Doug was a two-dribble player in college so I can't imagine that'll change in the pro's.
     
  12. BullsGoneWild

    BullsGoneWild New Member

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    I think the problem for Doug is that in the preseason and the first couple games, he was coming off screens and looking to shoot/drive to the basket. It seems lately that he's looking to immediately pass when he gets the ball. I think once some of the nerves start to subside, and he gets back to playing his game, he'll be fine.

    Great info on the PER stats for Mirotic though!
     
  13. transplant

    transplant Global Moderator Staff Member Global Moderator

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    I'm no longer concerned about Mirotic. He's going to be fine and probably better than that. For me, this thread now belongs to McDermott.
     
  14. rosenthall

    rosenthall Well-Known Member

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    I think I'm ready to co-sign on this.

    Mirotic looks like a pro out there.

    My very unscientific evaluation of his game right now is that when he checks in, I don't get worried about what'll happen on the scoreboard, and when he makes a big play I'm not that surprised.
     
  15. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    Doug needs to grow a mustache.
     
  16. transplant

    transplant Global Moderator Staff Member Global Moderator

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    That's a low bar, but I agree.
     

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