Is Jimmy a role player?

Discussion in 'Chicago Bulls' started by BullsGoneWild, Dec 19, 2014.

  1. BullsGoneWild

    BullsGoneWild New Member

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    When Chuck said that last night, my immediate reaction was, he's more than a role player. He's definitely got the stats to support it. But has he really carried us in games? He's scored a lot of points, gotten to the line and has had an impact on winning. But hasn't Gasol had as big an impact on winning so far this season?

    I posted a recap of the game last night, Jimmy & Niko highlights along with some interviews here: http://www.bullsgonewild.com/12-19-2014_bulls_vs_knicks.html
     
  2. transplant

    transplant Global Moderator Staff Member Global Moderator

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    Butler is the team's leading scorer and is 12th in the league in scoring...not the stuff of role players.

    And FWIW, I believe that Butler has carried the team in a lot of their games if your definition of carry is to be indispensable to winning a game or at least making it competitive.
     
  3. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    Jimmy's been a role player, but he's really come into his own this year. I think he carried the team last night, like a superstar is supposed to from time to time.
     
  4. BullsGoneWild

    BullsGoneWild New Member

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    The last two games make me think he's more than a role player. He really took control of the games and scored during critical moments. Keep doing that, and the Bulls are going to end up paying him the max.
     
  5. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    Until they do pay him, it's debatable that they will :)
     
  6. BullsGoneWild

    BullsGoneWild New Member

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    Haha well at least if a team offers him the max, it'll be the cheaper max compared to the max the Bulls can offer him. They'll save a few bucks that way.
     
  7. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    There's probably some toxic kind of contract another team might offer that the Bulls would refuse. They already tried to lowball him without success. When Omer was a FA, they said they'd match right up until the toxic offer was made and they let him walk.

    Then we'll hear lots of "fiscal flexibility" kinds of statements.

    That's the movie we've seen before.

    I hope they do the right thing and just pay him the max and move on. My doubt comes in that they'll be real close to the luxury tax if they do and that flexibility won'y be there or they'll be looking at paying the severe luxury tax or they'll be downgrading from a Dunleavy (for example) to a guy who makes less (and probably deservedly so).
     
  8. transplant

    transplant Global Moderator Staff Member Global Moderator

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    Truth: Coming into this season, Butler was an established defensive stud, but no better than an average wing scorer.

    Truth: The Bulls reportedly offered Butler a 4-year, $44mil extension.

    Truth: Butler turned down the Bulls offer claiming that he wanted to bet on himself.

    Prediction: Butler bet on the right horse...Jimmy's gonna get paid!

    No good guys or bad guys in this scenario. The Bulls would have been fools to offer Butler a max extension. This said, in a mere two months, Butler has demonstrated that he's a max salary player. Good on you, Jimmy!
     
    truebluefan likes this.
  9. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    I hope they pay him, but I'm dubious until it happens. Glass half empty.

    History says the Bulls rarely pay MAX contract to one of the players they developed. Rose is the only one I can remember. And they were perfectly happy to trade away Elton Brand rather than pay him.
     
  10. truebluefan

    truebluefan Administrator Staff Member Administrator

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    Sir Charles was wrong.

    Yes he will get paid. Denny, I agree with your pessimism because based on what the Bulls have done in the past, you are right.
     
  11. such sweet thunder

    such sweet thunder Member Staff Member Moderator

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    You know, I'm pretty confident the Bulls will sign Butler, when I didn't expect them to sign Asik. I think the thing we failed to realize when we discussed the contract this summer was how much the new national television contracts would change the state of things. A max 15.5M or so contract in 2015 is nothing compared to the max 22.5M deal in 2016. I guess my point is, that a strange set of circumstances have developed where Jimmy Butler can't make what he deserves this upcoming season, so he's probably going to get signed.

    As to the question of whether JB is a role player, I still have my doubts that he can sustain this pace. He had a series of bad games in a row before his recent hot streak. I think I'm going to need to see it for a full season, season and a half before I truly believe it.
     
  12. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    How much room are you expecting under the cap? The articles I've seen say a Jimmy MAX deal leaves little room under the LT.

    Like this:

    http://probasketballtalk.nbcsports....-salary-caps-under-new-national-tv-contracts/

    [​IMG]

    So ~$3M higher cap (and LT) space next summer.
     
  13. transplant

    transplant Global Moderator Staff Member Global Moderator

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    Contract-wise, assuming Butler continues on something close to his current pace, I expect the Bulls to offer Butler a contract starting at the 2015 max ($16.575mil estimate) with 7.5% raises. This will be the easy part.

    The harder part is contract length. With the new TV contract on the horizon, the Bulls will want to go long...4 or 5 years. However, since Jimmy likes to bet on himself, he may want to do what Lebron James has done, that is, sign a one-year deal with a second year player option. In Butler's case, this would mean the $16.575mil in 2015-16 with a $17.8mil player option for the 2016-17 season. If the cap jumps to the $87.2mil level Denny shows above and Butler continues to play at a very high level, the new max salary for Butler would be $21.8mil and Jimmy would opt out and grab it.
     
  14. kukoc4ever

    kukoc4ever Let's win a ring! Staff Member Moderator

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    The Bulls tend to not do the blatant player dump to save money move. They tend to acquire the player replacement first and then not sign the player.

    Sign Ben Wallace, dump Tyson Chandler.
    Draft Jimmy Butler, he looks decent, bye bye Luol.
    Draft Derrick Rose, later Ben Gordon.

    At first these signings seem like redundancies, but its leverage against "having" to bend over and resign a guy when they can have a suitable replacement for less money or more control.

    Sign Pau Gasol and Niko and you have a cheaper Taj, maybe you don't need Noah as much when its time to pay up again.

    Draft Doug McDermott and Tony Snell, maybe you don't really need Jimmy Butler anymore.

    :unsure:

    Well, OK, Butler's probably getting paid in that scenario as of now since there isn't any real way to spin that one.
     
    Last edited: Dec 21, 2014
  15. transplant

    transplant Global Moderator Staff Member Global Moderator

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    What you describe is what I think most smart organizations do...pay/retain the real good to great players and replace the meh to good players with less expensive alternatives. Belichik's terrific at it.
     
  16. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    They have the player. His name is Tony Snell.
     
  17. transplant

    transplant Global Moderator Staff Member Global Moderator

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    While i understand your reticence, Butler's selection as the EC Player of the Month is pretty compelling to me. Not since Hedo Turkoglu was named POM in 07-08 has anyone been selected who wasn't or didn't later become an all star-caliber player.
     
  18. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    It doesn't look to me that Jimmy is on some sort of hot streak. He's getting to the line against quality defenders. He's performed even better when paired with the 8 PER backup who doesn't need to be guarded so close. His FG% is high because he's getting close shots when he isn't fouled.

    The lesson to be learned is to bet on Jimmy.
     
  19. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    Jimmy's cap hold is 250% his current salary. Since he's basically been robbed the past couple seasons at ~$2M, that's only $5M. They could sign FAs up to the cap minus $5M, then use bird rights to sign him and go well over the LT by a bit.

    Would they?

    I think they should, but I have my reasons to doubt it.
     
  20. kukoc4ever

    kukoc4ever Let's win a ring! Staff Member Moderator

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    So, yah, the way he's playing now, he's clearly not a role player.

    The only thing that remains to be seen is that can it be sustained.

    Unless he gets injured or loses heart, I don't see that happening. Getting to the line, playing D and making the smart play you can usually do every night. His J could leave him which could mess him up... once again... it remains to be seen if it can be sustained.
     

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