http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2014-nba-preview-the-rise-of-the-warriors/ Portland is projected 7th in the West, looks like. I like how LMA is good at everything and bad at nothing... while T-Rob? Not so much. The "pile of poo" icon is a nice touch. Knowing how driven by analytics the Blazers staff is, I wonder if the data behind this reading of T-Rob is similar to the data that's telling Stotts not to bother with T-Rob in pre-season.
Five Thirty Eight is Steve Blake? I thought he was in bed doing nothing for three days, how could he have done all this work on a season preview?
OK, I don't care what these guys think, but I LOVE their symbol for "Poor Player" - a steaming pile of shit. Can someone please make that into an emoticon we can use in this forum? BNM
So here's their ranking: 1. Golden State 2. Clippers 3. San Antonio 4. Mavs 5. OKC 6. Grizzlies 7. Portland 8. Houston Here's mine. I'm thinking of suing.
It's an interesting article, but their rankings are based on two ESPN advanced stats: RPM (Real Plus-Minus) and WAR (Wins Above Replacement). And, they aren't using last years values for these stats, they are using projected values for 2015. I have no idea how those projections are calculated, but I do question the validity of using those individual stats to project player impact and especially team wins/losses. For example, for the 2013-2014 season, Andre Iguodala had the 3rd highest RPM in the entire league and the 11th highest WAR. If you average those two rankings that means, according to their chosen methodology, Andre Iguodala was the 7th best player in the entire NBA last season. No wonder they picked the Warriors to win the West. When your 3rd (or 4th) best player is the 7th best player in the entire league, you're bound to win a lot of games. The problem is, Andre Iguodala is not the 7th best player in the league, and everyone knows it. So much for their methodology. I don't have the time to do it, but based on their methodology, I bet if you went back and used their methodology and the actual RPM and WAR values from 2013-2014, they would probably conclude the Warriors won the West and we all know they didn't. By their methodology, Channing Frye was the 13th best player in the NBA last season. I like Channing, but REALLY? And, Bricky Rubio is better than Damian Lillard (by a significant amount - guess the Rubes were right after all). And, congratulations to Nick Collison for having the 7th highest RPM in the entire league. Maybe there is still hope for Joel Freeland to reach superstar status using these sophisticated stats. After looking at their methodology, I find it hard to take their conclusions seriously, but I did enjoy reading their observations and comments. BNM
I hate all these advanced stats (besides shooting stuff because those stats don't lie)... Eye test is always the way to go.