2021-22 Blazers Roster

[SharpesTriumph]

Players under contract next season and salary in millions:

Dame 39.3
CJ 30.8
Covington 13.0
Nurkic 12.0
Simons 3.9
Little 2.3
Elleby 1.5

Likely on the team;
DJJ 9.7 player option
Collins 7.0 qualifying offer

Likely Free Agent
Powell (11.6 player option)

Free agent
Melo
Kanter
Giles
RHJ

No 2021 draft pick as that will go to Houston. Portland will no longer have any restrictions on trading a future first round pick.

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/portland-trail-blazers/yearly/cap/

1 The biggest question is Norman Powell, can the team resign him?
2 Kanter is a great backup option to resign.
3 Melo I think I would let him walk, especially if we first resign Kanter and Powell, then we don't need his offense.
4 DJJ I would guess will try another year at his 9.7 since he has fallen out of the rotation.
5 Collins I would give the qualifying offer but let him walk if he gets a multi year Meyers type of offer, way too much recent injury history.
6 Does the team want to try and extend Roco, Nurkic, or Simons? Nothing has to be done at the start of the offseason, but all will be on expiring contracts so it might make sense to extend or explorer trades
7 Who can we get for the MLE (likely tax MLE)?
8 Is the team willing to pay the tax? If Powell leaves for nothing maybe the Blazers dodge it again, but if he resigns I think they have to pay. It will be nice not having a hard cap, that probably cost us a few wins as we couldn't fill the bench during injuries.

 

[Natebishop3]

I think DJJ leaves. Why would he want to stay here unless we bring in a coach that says he wants to work him into the rotation? I also think Little is going to take his minutes.

Also, does CJ get traded? Does Powell move into the SG spot? Do they keep trying the three guard lineup?

I think they let Kanter go. I think we need a center who can trap and shoot the three.

 

[SharpesTriumph]

I think DJJ leaves. Why would he want to stay here unless we bring in a coach that says he wants to work him into the rotation? I also think Little is going to take his minutes.

Also, does CJ get traded? Does Powell move into the SG spot? Do they keep trying the three guard lineup?

I think they let Kanter go. I think we need a center who can trap and shoot the three.

DJJ might stay just for the salary. If he can get close to the $9.7 million or more years I agree he leaves. If not, he probably stays and trys to build his value or work with the team on a trade.

What centers trap and shoot the three? Anthony Davis shot 26%, Jokic doesn't trap, and those guys are MVP level. Maybe Embiid might qualify, but he is a top 3 MVP, more of a solid defense than trapping.

They could use a stretch big as the 10th man; but thats more of an MLE or veteran minimum player. Kanter is great for an affordable 15-20mpg backup or emergency starter. He has obvious major flaws, but he has elite best in the NBA skills as well. Plus the team can both resign Kanter and sign an MLE player. He has accepted being out of the rotation in Boston so if he gets beat out of the rotation I don't believe he would be disgruntled as someone such as Melo might.

 

[Natebishop3]

DJJ might stay just for the salary. If he can get close to the $9.7 million or more years I agree he leaves. If not, he probably stays and trys to build his value or work with the team on a trade.

What centers trap and shoot the three? Anthony Davis shot 26%, Jokic doesn't trap, and those guys are MVP level. Maybe Embiid might qualify, but he is a top 3 MVP, more of a solid defense than trapping.

They could use a stretch big as the 10th man; but thats more of an MLE or veteran minimum player. Kanter is great for an affordable 15-20mpg backup or emergency starter. He has obvious major flaws, but he has elite best in the NBA skills as well. Plus the team can both resign Kanter and sign an MLE player. He has accepted being out of the rotation in Boston so if he gets beat out of the rotation I don't believe he would be disgruntled as someone such as Melo might.

If you're DJJ, and you're not in the rotation anymore, would you want to stay on a team that might not even play you next year? That's not going to help his contract options. I think he is going to leave.

For centers, you're listing conventional bigs. I'm not talking about big bigs. Maybe Collins can be that guy. I'm not convinced though, honestly.

 

[Scalma]

If you're DJJ, and you're not in the rotation anymore, would you want to stay on a team that might not even play you next year? That's not going to help his contract options. I think he is going to leave.

For centers, you're listing conventional bigs. I'm not talking about big bigs. Maybe Collins can be that guy. I'm not convinced though, honestly.

I would bet good money Jones will pick up his option. He’s not in a position to pass on nearly 10 million dollars and I don’t see anyone else offering him something similar. Once he does pick it up, Olshey will probably use him in a trade like he did with Hezonja.

 

[Natebishop3]

I would bet good money Jones will pick up his option. He’s not in a position to pass on nearly 10 million dollars and I don’t see anyone else offering him something similar.

A lot of players would take multiple years/less money over one year/more money. If you're DJJ, you might be worried that this is your last chance at a long term contract. He MIGHT stay if Stotts is fired. But the guy has completely fallen out of the rotation. Would it be worth the risk to you if you were in a position where you weren't able to prove you're worth a new contract?

 

[boredinsalem]

Trade CJ to NY, he'd be happy with that. I'd like to expand it to a 3-way with a S&T Derozan (2 years, 20 million a year?) and maybe find a way to snag Quickly, Mitchell Robinson, or picks. Re-sign Norm. Sign Cory Joseph for stability and an extra ball handler and Maurice Harkless for injury insurance for Roco and Nassir.

Dame/Powell/Derozan/Roco/Nurkic

Joseph/Dame/Harkless/Covington/Nurkic - half court unit/pick n' roll
Simons/Derozan/Powell/Little/Collins - open court, Derozan iso unit

 

[Natebishop3]

Trade CJ to NY, he'd be happy with that. I'd like to expand it to a 3-way with a S&T Derozan (2 years, 20 million a year?) and maybe find a way to snag Quickly, Mitchell Robinson, or picks. Re-sign Norm. Sign Cory Joseph for stability and an extra ball handler and Maurice Harkless for injury insurance for Roco and Nassir.

Dame/Powell/Derozan/Roco/Nurkic

Joseph/Dame/Harkless/Covington/Nurkic - half court unit/pick n' roll
Simons/Derozan/Powell/Little/Collins - open court, Derozan iso unit

I don't think we trade CJ unless we're getting back a similar caliber player at SF or PF.

 

[boredinsalem]

I don't think we trade CJ unless we're getting back a similar caliber player at SF or PF.

The idea here is Powell + [Derozan/Marcus Smart/etc] > CJ without Powell.

 

[Natebishop3]

The idea here is Powell + [Derozan/Marcus Smart/etc] > CJ without Powell.

The Blazers might think they want to keep the three guard lineup. Not sure how Powell would feel about that.

Also, DeRozan is an AWFUL three point shooter. I think the game has passed him by a bit.

 

[Scalma]

A lot of players would take multiple years/less money over one year/more money. If you're DJJ, you might be worried that this is your last chance at a long term contract. He MIGHT stay if Stotts is fired. But the guy has completely fallen out of the rotation. Would it be worth the risk to you if you were in a position where you weren't able to prove you're worth a new contract?

why would anyone give jones a multi year contract? He’s been benched by two different playoff teams now. He’s not a scorer, so what’s the upside exactly? You can pay RHJ the minimum to do the same job.

 

[BigGameDamian]

CJ McCollum for Gordon Hayward works.

 

[Scalma]

CJ McCollum for Gordon Hayward works.

hell yeah, let’s get worse for no reason.

 

[Natebishop3]

why would anyone give jones a multi year contract? He’s been benched by two different playoff teams now. He’s not a scorer, so what’s the upside exactly? You can pay RHJ the minimum to do the same job.

On paper, DJJ looks like the much better offensive player than RHJ.

48% from the field and 31% from three looks a lot better than Jefferson's career 21% from three. This year Jones has a TS% of 57% and RHJ has a TS% of 54%.

 

[Natebishop3]

hell yeah, let’s get worse for no reason.

Actually, I was thinking "why would Charlotte do that?"

They have LaMelo who needs the ball in his hands.

 

[Scalma]

On paper, DJJ looks like the much better offensive player than RHJ.

48% from the field and 31% from three looks a lot better than Jefferson's career 21% from three. This year Jones has a TS% of 57% and RHJ has a TS% of 54%.

PER: RHJ
TS%: DJJ
FTr: RHJ
REB: RHJ
AST: RHJ
STL: RHJ
BLK: DJJ
BPM: RHJ

So Jones is slightly a less shitty (but still shitty) shooter and he blocks more shots. Everything else leans towards RHJ. So how does that justify a multi year contract? They’re both closer to minimum contract caliber players and Jones would be dumb to pass on $9m, because the odds he ever sees that type of money again are slim.

 

[Natebishop3]

PER: RHJ
TS%: DJJ
FTr: RHJ
REB: RHJ
AST: RHJ
STL: RHJ
BLK: DJJ
BPM: RHJ

So Jones is slightly a less shitty (but still shitty) shooter and he blocks more shots. Everything else leans towards RHJ. So how does that justify a multi year contract? They’re both closer to minimum contract caliber players and Jones would be dumb to pass on $9m, because the odds he ever sees that type of money again are slim.

Are you going off career or this season? Because realistically we really can't use this season's stats for RHJ. The dude has BARELY played. I included his TS% but it's pretty close to his career averages. I mean..... the sample size is absurdly different.

 

[Pinwheel1]

At the moment I want NP to play both wing positions. He should be the starting SF. He often played the same role in Toronto.

My top 9 are:

Dame, CJ, Ant, (and NP at guards)
NP, Little at SF
Covington and Collins at PF
Nurk and Kanter at center.

As far as cheap contracts, I would try to keep Giles. Obviously, I do not see their practices but from what I can see in mop up duty, his 3 pt shot has potential. Could he be a stretch 4? (He has decent handles and passing abilities as well) If not then they need to find someone who is.

Elleby I keep for another year.
RHJ I try to keep on the cheap. He is what he is and nothing more, but we can always use a defender who can guard several positions.

DJJ I like, but I would encourage him to leave....strictly from a cost standpoint.
I don't think Melo stays.

NP I give 20 million to.
Kanter 6 million (Give or take 1 million)

 

[tester551]

Trade CJ to NY, he'd be happy with that. I'd like to expand it to a 3-way with a S&T Derozan (2 years, 20 million a year?) and maybe find a way to snag Quickly, Mitchell Robinson, or picks. Re-sign Norm. Sign Cory Joseph for stability and an extra ball handler and Maurice Harkless for injury insurance for Roco and Nassir.

Dame/Powell/Derozan/Roco/Nurkic

Joseph/Dame/Harkless/Covington/Nurkic - half court unit/pick n' roll
Simons/Derozan/Powell/Little/Collins - open court, Derozan iso unit

Something like this:
NYK:
Toppin, Knox, 21' 1st (~#21), + 23' 1st (Dallas) -> CJ
+ This is slightly more than the price we paid for RoCo

Rockets:
Wood -> Toppin, Knicks 21' 1st (~#21), + Knicks 23' 1st (via Dallas)
+ Get more youth and picks

Blazers:
CJ -> Wood, Knox
+ Portland gets significant salary relief and a better fit
+ I'd be OK with flipping Knox to another team as a reclamation project for a couple of 2nds.

Assuming all goes well, this would be the roster:
Dame, (FA PG via Tax MLE - TJ McConnell?), (Rookie @ Min)
Norm (@$20/yr), Simons, Elleby
RoCo, Little, Jones?, Knox
Wood, Collins (@$5/yr), (FA Big via min)
Nurk, Kanter (@ $5/yr)

That should put us at ~$148M for the year (Tax line should be ~$136.5M)
Dame - $43.7M
Norm - $21.0M
Wood - $13.7M
Roco - $12.9M
Nurk - $12.0M
Kanter - $5.0M
Collins - $5.0M
Simons - $3.9M
Little - $2.3M
Jones - $9.7M
Knox - $5.8M
Elleby - $1.6M
FA - Tax MLE - $8.0M
Min Roster Spot - $1.6M
Min Roster Spot - $1.6M

 

[PtldPlatypus]

I don't think we trade CJ unless we're getting back a similar caliber player at SF or PF.

Ingram is the guy I would insistently try to trade CJ+ for. Don't know what it would take, but I have to believe that CJ/Zion would be a more complementary pair than Ingram/Zion is.

 

[Natebishop3]

Ingram is the guy I would insistently try to trade CJ+ for. Don't know what it would take, but I have to believe that CJ/Zion would be a more complementary pair than Ingram/Zion is.

I have definitely been eyeing him for the last year or so. I think NOP keeps trying to make him the lead guy and he's not that guy. I knew he wasn't that guy when I watched Oregon beat Duke. He's a great second guy though, I think.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

I have definitely been eyeing him for the last year or so. I think NOP keeps trying to make him the lead guy and he's not that guy. I knew he wasn't that guy when I watched Oregon beat Duke. He's a great second guy though, I think.

Unfortunately though, if NOP thinks that Lonzo and NAW are a viable starting guard pairing, they'll probably try to stick with that young core rather than bring in an older guy like CJ.

 

[Scalma]

Are you going off career or this season? Because realistically we really can't use this season's stats for RHJ. The dude has BARELY played. I included his TS% but it's pretty close to his career averages. I mean..... the sample size is absurdly different.

View attachment 38626

I used career. And your best argument for jones is that he’s a better shooter? No team is signing either for their shooting. It’s for their defense, and the majority of the data suggests RHJ is the better defender. And my whole argument is that he can do the same job for the minimum, so why pay Jones?

 

[Natebishop3]

I used career. And your best argument for jones is that he’s a better shooter? No team is signing either for their shooting. It’s for their defense, and the majority of the data suggests RHJ is the better defender. And my whole argument is that he can do the same job for the minimum, so why pay Jones?

RHJ might be a better defender, but he's abysmal on offense. The gap between them on offense is actually pretty massive. There's a reason nobody signed him until the end of the season. He can't shoot the three at all. 20% shooter. So are you saying that the gap between them defensively is as big in favor of RHJ as the gap is offensively is in favor of DJJ?

 

[Natebishop3]

Unfortunately though, if NOP thinks that Lonzo and NAW are a viable starting guard pairing, they'll probably try to stick with that young core rather than bring in an older guy like CJ.

We held onto CJ for too long. He's 29 and he's at the point where a franchise isn't going to trade for him to be their main guy for the future. At this point he's really a guy that could help a team take the next step. That's why I'm hoping Philly shits the bed in the first round so we can try to convince them to take CJ.

 

[boredinsalem]

Something like this:
NYK:
Toppin, Knox, 21' 1st (~#21), + 23' 1st (Dallas) -> CJ
+ This is slightly more than the price we paid for RoCo

Rockets:
Wood -> Toppin, Knicks 21' 1st (~#21), + Knicks 23' 1st (via Dallas)
+ Get more youth and picks

Blazers:
CJ -> Wood, Knox
+ Portland gets significant salary relief and a better fit
+ I'd be OK with flipping Knox to another team as a reclamation project for a couple of 2nds.

Assuming all goes well, this would be the roster:
Dame, (FA PG via Tax MLE - TJ McConnell?), (Rookie @ Min)
Norm (@$20/yr), Simons, Elleby
RoCo, Little, Jones?, Knox
Wood, Collins (@$5/yr), (FA Big via min)
Nurk, Kanter (@ $5/yr)

That should put us at ~$148M for the year (Tax line should be ~$136.5M)
Dame - $43.7M
Norm - $21.0M
Wood - $13.7M
Roco - $12.9M
Nurk - $12.0M
Kanter - $5.0M
Collins - $5.0M
Simons - $3.9M
Little - $2.3M
Jones - $9.7M
Knox - $5.8M
Elleby - $1.6M
FA - Tax MLE - $8.0M
Min Roster Spot - $1.6M
Min Roster Spot - $1.6M


View attachment 38625

I like that but I don't think there's any way Houston is giving up Wood. He's their primary positive asset. I think targets that would either shore up the backcourt D so we could add role-player scorers (Marcus Smart) or serve as another distributor and we could add some role-player defenders (Derozan, Ricky Rubio - but then we'd need to add shooters) should be the targets if we replace CJ. I'd be OK with the step-down in talent if it meant roster flexibility (i.e., keeping Powell, reducing payroll) and potential picks.

I love the thought of a Dame, Marcus Smart, Powell, Simons backcourt. You get a little of everything.

 

[blazerkor]

Since we're doing the trade CJ thing in here, which I obviously love... there's a new trade I've been thinking about. If the Knick are interested in CJ they might be willing to give up what amounts to three late firsts and Toppin for him. If Toronto is ready to let Lowry walk and really start a youth based rebuild, they might be willing to take the haul of Toppin, pick 21, 23 and 32 along with all of the cap space for Siakam.

If that deal went through obviously I'd re-sign Powell using his bird rights, I would try to get Elfrid Payton or maybe Kris Dunn with the MLE, I guess I'd give Zach his QO but I wouldn't match anything higher or at the same cost with more guaranteed years, I'd re-sign Enes using his early-bird rights and then fill the rest of the team with DLeaguers and other min level guys. I'm assuming that DJ stays just because this is the best money he can get.

That gives us Dame, Powell, RoCo, Siakam, Nurk, Payton, DJ, Ant, Nas, Enes, Zach. That's a big upgrade over our current playable roster IMO and would be fantastic with a new head coach.

 

[BonesJones]

I think DJJ leaves. Why would he want to stay here unless we bring in a coach that says he wants to work him into the rotation? I also think Little is going to take his minutes.

Also, does CJ get traded? Does Powell move into the SG spot? Do they keep trying the three guard lineup?

I think they let Kanter go. I think we need a center who can trap and shoot the three.

Aka Zach Collins.

 

[Natebishop3]

Aka Zach Collins.

A) He has to be healthy

B) I'm not convinced he's mobile enough.

 

[42N8Bounce]

I think the biggest question this off season is - how far into the tax will the Blazers be willing to go?

Dame $43.7M
CJ $30.8M
Nurk $12M
RoCo $13M
Powell $11.6M (Player option)
DJJ $9.7M
Simons $3.9M
Little $2.3M
Elleby $1.5M
((Nichols)) $2.8M

By my calcs - the Blazers have $134.2M tied up in salaries with only 9 players accounted for. (3 minimum salary charges)

The tax line is $132.6M.

Powell can opt out and go anywhere, but the Blazers have Bird rights and match if willing to take the tax pain.
Carmelo will have to be minimum salary, again exceeding that tax line.
Most likely we'll have to let Kanter walk if he gets anything significantly above the minimum.
The Blazers have the bird rights to Collins and will retain him if its a reasonable price.

$43.7M for Dame and $30.8M for CJ eat up 68% of our CAP (56.2% of the tax line). That's a big chunk of money that will keep the Blazers hands financially tied thru 2023-24. Dame is worth it, but....