538.com Blazers' Preview

[BrianFromWA]

I can't believe that someone hasn't posted this yet, but I can't find it, so...apologies if it's not new info.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/nba-portland-trail-blazers-preview-2015-16/

Bottom Line Up Front: Fascinating to me that their projection system has us going 39-43, with Frazier playing 5x the PG minutes that CJ does (actually, with CJ playing as much PG and Aminu plays center), with Dame the only one getting more than 24mpg, and with Henderson and Harkless getting 3x as many SF minutes as Aminu. I don't see those happening, and to our benefit. If CJ plays more than Frazier, and Aminu more than Henderson, and Vonleh more than Kaman, I think we're a much better team overall.

...(t)his (bringing back 4 new starters) makes the Blazers’ fortunes extremely hard to predict: Players’ performance changes a lot when they change teams or roles, and a point guard’s performance is particularly sensitive to teammates (much like a quarterback in the NFL). I’m sure NBA data nerds everywhere are excited to see what happens.
Here’s how CARMELO sees it going down:1

CARMELO sees the departures outweighing the gains by double-digit wins. Considering Lillard is the only player on the team who averaged double-digit scoring last year, this is unsurprising. The good news is that the entire projected starting squad is 25 or younger, so if they all develop nicely, the Blazers should be in a good position for a while. But that’s a big, big “if.”

Some more tidbits, if you like the tl;dr more than clicking on the link:

Lillard is a legit star, and we’re still not even sure how good he is. ESPN’s Real Plus-Minus (RPM) rates him as the 13th-most valuable player and fifth-most valuable point guard in basketball. As you can see in his CARMELO chart, he has been improving every year — so rapidly, in fact, that the model expects him to regress this season. His production could shift radically with a new supporting cast — in either direction. At this point, however, I would say his upside is limited if he doesn’t improve his good-but-not-great 3-point shooting.

Meyers' top 5 comps? Jason Smith (guh), Chris Wilcox (?!?), Tom Barker (um, I had to look this one up), Scot Pollard (I can kinda see it) and, wait for it, Michael Cage .

Despite playing fewer than 20 minutes a game and being a dreadful shooter (28.6 percent on 3-pointers), Aminu grades out fairly well. His wins above replacement of 4.3 ranks 16th among small forwards, largely as a result of his fifth-ranked Defensive Real Plus Minus. As long as the Blazers are content getting their shots elsewhere, he could be valuable.

Rounding out the projected starters is Mason Plumlee, who averaged around 12 points and eight rebounds as a starter for the Nets while Brook Lopez was out last year. Real Plus Minus rates him as slightly below average on offense and slightly below average on defense, leading to an overall ranking of 47th among power forwards. Still, CARMELO and WAR are a little kinder, each giving him a couple of wins above replacement

 

[oldmangrouch]

Not even the "experts" know what to make of this roster.

 

[BBert]

Meyers = Michael Cage??

 

[crandc]

Not even the "experts" know what to make of this roster.

Not surprising since the roster is so new. But then isn't that one of the things that makes a season fun?

 

[Reep]

It lost credibility with me when they had Dame at 70% playing and CJ at 30%. No way CJ plays that few of minutes. They had CJ and Frazier playing almost the same amount. The rest falls apart quickly if you start with the wrong assumptions.

 

[BrianFromWA]

but it only gets better!

 

[blue9]

Meyers = Michael Cage??

Now I really wanna see Meyers with Cage's hair!

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Mason Plumlee: "slightly below average"

 

[SlyPokerDog]

I see more Nicolas Cage than Michael.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

but it only gets better!

I've recalculated.



There--now we're in the playoffs.

 

[Reep]

I've recalculated.

View attachment 6439

There--now we're in the playoffs.

Not perfect, but a lot closer than they one they used. I don't see the bottom four even getting 5.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Not perfect, but a lot closer than they one they used. I don't see the bottom four even getting 5.

Remember, that's not minutes but percent of minutes. Still, you're probably right.

 

[Reep]

Remember, that's not minutes but percent of minutes. Still, you're probably right.

I'm not sure what perfect is at this point. I think you are very close, but most of it depends on what Hendo does. If Henderson comes on and plays really well and they move CJ to the bench, then adjustments would have to be made. If CJ remains the starter then he likely will get the % you assign. That is the only part that I would expect to possibly change.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

Now I really wanna see Meyers with Cage's hair!

I want to see Biebs with Cage's muscles!

 

[BrianFromWA]

I want to see Biebs with Cage's muscles!

or his jheri curl.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

seems like if Ed Davis hit the weights and got an 15-footer he would totally be Michael Cage.

 

[tlongII]

I want to see Biebs with Cage's muscles!

Leonard's already more muscular than Cage ever was.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

Leonard's already more muscular than Cage ever was.

Yeah looking at those pictures shocked me... NBA players are way more ripped now than 25 years ago.

 

[KeepOnRollin]

Yeah looking at those pictures shocked me... NBA players are way more ripped now than 25 years ago.

Outside of Karl Malone

 

[blue32]

Yeah looking at those pictures shocked me... NBA players are way more ripped now than 25 years ago.

I've noticed this, but the majority of it are the supplements and injections (HGH, etc) they get, starting even at the high-school level.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

Outside of Karl Malone

Yeah, Karl Malone was the Secretariat of the NBA.

 

[blue9]

Outside of Karl Malone

That's a photoshop. Or was that the point of the post? :LOL:

 

[Pinwheel1]

I walked past Michael Cage one time at Loyd Center during his playing days.. I was shocked at how thin he was. He sure played "bigger"

 

[KeepOnRollin]

That's a photoshop. Or was that the point of the post? :LOL:

Of course this is a bit later in his career.

 

[blue9]

I know he was ripped, but it looks like someone PSd a larger arm on that first photo - on first glace the shoulder area looked blended. I thought for sure it was a picture of him looking down at Stockton, but they erased Stockton and inserted a ridiculous arm. But maybe not...

 

[Orion Bailey]

I know he was ripped, but it looks like someone PSd a larger arm on that first photo - on first glace the shoulder area looked blended. I thought for sure it was a picture of him looking down at Stockton, but they erased Stockton and inserted a ridiculous arm. But maybe not...

He had ridiculous arms. He didn't need them inserted. Dude was a pro body builder in an NBA body.

 

[Draco]

I know he was ripped, but it looks like someone PSd a larger arm on that first photo - on first glace the shoulder area looked blended. I thought for sure it was a picture of him looking down at Stockton, but they erased Stockton and inserted a ridiculous arm. But maybe not...

Look like Malone to me, dude was ripped. He also raped underage girls. He had freakish arms and elbows.

 

[Draco]

I can't believe that someone hasn't posted this yet, but I can't find it, so...apologies if it's not new info.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/nba-portland-trail-blazers-preview-2015-16/

Bottom Line Up Front: Fascinating to me that their projection system has us going 39-43, with Frazier playing 5x the PG minutes that CJ does (actually, with CJ playing as much PG and Aminu plays center), with Dame the only one getting more than 24mpg, and with Henderson and Harkless getting 3x as many SF minutes as Aminu. I don't see those happening, and to our benefit. If CJ plays more than Frazier, and Aminu more than Henderson, and Vonleh more than Kaman, I think we're a much better team overall.



Some more tidbits, if you like the tl;dr more than clicking on the link:



Meyers' top 5 comps? Jason Smith (guh), Chris Wilcox (?!?), Tom Barker (um, I had to look this one up), Scot Pollard (I can kinda see it) and, wait for it, Michael Cage .

It'll be an interesting season because we rate very well in a lot of analysts and very terribly by general NBA media.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

He had ridiculous arms. He didn't need them inserted. Dude was a pro body builder in an NBA body.

Remember the season when everyone was talking about how he had 3% body fat at the beginning of the season? Might have been his last season in Utah...

 

[BlazerCaravan]

It'll be an interesting season because we rate very well in a lot of analysts and very terribly by general NBA media.

Well the NBA media in general is terrible so...