538's General Election Projections Have Begun

[Denny Crane]

Who, exactly, is way behind?



All those pesky grey colored states aren't in the bag for either candidate.

The PA polls we already discussed.

 

[Minstrel]

Who, exactly, is way behind?

All those pesky grey colored states aren't in the bag for either candidate.

Trump is way behind.

The PA polls we already discussed.

You discussed your conspiracy theories. I found them funny.

 

[Denny Crane]

GOP Still Not United Behind Trump -- that's the graphic at the bottom of CNN right now.

The Democrats are still not united behind Hiliar. Where's Bernie's endorsement? But they're not putting that on a banner across the screen.

 

[Denny Crane]

Trump is way behind.



You discussed your conspiracy theories. I found them funny.

I am seeing polls barely within the margin of error, two candidates who are unpopular, and one that has been consistently underestimated all along. Including by your boy Silver.

 

[MarAzul]

The carpetbagger Clinton isn't going to take NY! NJ either.

 

[barfo]

The carpetbagger Clinton isn't going to take NY! NJ either.

Polls must be horribly skewed, then. There was a poll with Clinton up 21 points in NJ just the other day.

barfo

 

[MarAzul]

Polls must be horribly skewed, then. There was a poll with Clinton up 21 points in NJ just the other day.

barfo

No doubt. I got called last week, Do you support that loud mouth Trump? You know he is a racist!
Not many people are willing to say, Fucking A!

 

[barfo]

Who, exactly, is way behind?

View attachment 9415

Even assuming the map you posted yourself, Trump is way behind.

210 > 164.

barfo

 

[barfo]

No doubt. I got called last week, Do you support that loud mouth Trump? You know he is a racist!
Not many people are willing to say, Fucking A!

Well, aren't you the brave one!

barfo

 

[MarAzul]

Well, aren't you the brave one!

barfo

Yep!

 

[barfo]

Yep!

Well, I guess that'll make a good excuse come November. Americans just weren't "brave" enough to vote for Trump.

barfo

 

[MarAzul]

Well, I guess that'll make a good excuse come November. Americans just weren't "brave" enough to vote for Trump.

barfo

I imagine that will fit you.

 

[barfo]

I imagine that will fit you.

Oh, I am definitely not "brave" enough to vote for Trump, and I won't be doing so.

And I'm not just saying that because I'm not "brave" enough to declare my support for Trump.

barfo

 

[MarAzul]

Oh, I am definitely not "brave" enough to vote for Trump, and I won't be doing so.

And I'm not just saying that because I'm not "brave" enough to declare my support for Trump.

barfo

Too bad, I was hoping you were a brave Pirate. Ha! That never happens.

 

[Denny Crane]

Even assuming the map you posted yourself, Trump is way behind.

210 > 164.

barfo

Looks like 328-210, potentially.

Or 374-210, potentially.

Or something in between.

Neither is way in front or behind.

 

[barfo]

Looks like 328-210, potentially.

Or 374-210, potentially.

Or something in between.

Neither is way in front or behind.

Right, and polls can be skewed, and people can change their minds. There's really no point in discussing the election until the election, because nobody knows anything about what might happen. Maybe Beyonce will win on write-in votes. Maybe the election will be called off. Maybe an asteroid will destroy earth. There are billions of possibilities, and we cannot assign probabilities to any of them. It's best to just assume they are all equally likely.

barfo

 

[Denny Crane]

http://www.cleveland.com/opinion/in...linton_risks_losing_o.html#incart_river_index

Events between now and Election Day might have a little bit of influence on the outcome.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/...oming-political-headache-for-democrats-222663

 

[MarAzul]

Funny! Health insurance shock just before election! I doesn't get better than that. Health insurance is now joke, it is not insurance. The product would not stand alone in the market place, it can't as burdened by government requirements. It simply is now a tax on health people to pay for the sick, a product developed in a hole by the deceitful. Ha! Hillary will have to face the people whom are finally going to realize the truth.

Dammit, I wish I had the skill to communicate real deal when I can see it coming. Well, maybe it isn't lack of skill, perhaps people don't want to hear except what they want to hear. What a painful process.

 

[Denny Crane]

I looked at coveredca, California obamacare site. The offers were really expensive and a big step down from the generic kind of insurance my employers provided over the years. Medicare is cheaper, but you have to buy supplemental insurance if you want more than just hospitalization coverage. Plus you have to be old to qualify unless you lie/cheat. Costs for your significant other, too.

Al Gore was getting his ass handed to him until a last minute story about a W DUI 15 years prior. Gore made it close, but didn't win.

 

[Further]

It's late, so I might be misreading either your post or 538, but I don't see where getting AZ raises Trumps chance to 45%. AZ after all was a Romney state, Trump can win AZ and still lose in a landslide.

barfo

You are correct. It was late, and I fucked up. I do that.