A Different Metric

[oldmangrouch]

In this forum, we hear references to various metrics for measuring players - PER, +/-, win shares, etc. One metric I have not heard mentioned is the Basketball Prospectus "Wins Above Replacement Player" or WARP.

I can't begin to explain the math, but my impression is that it focuses more on defense than some of the others. Unlike some other metrics, it is NOT playing time neutral. Simplistically put, it says "if you took this player out of the lineup in favor of an average player at his position, this is how many wins you would gain or lose."

For the Blazers:
Roy 8.3
LMA 4.7
Pryz 3.6
Oden 3.2
Blake 2.3
Rudy 2.2
Outlaw .9
Sergio .7
Batum .5
Bayless -.4

I find it interesting that the ranking is pretty close to how I would rate the relative value of our players. Pryz and Blake are slightly better than the more talented, but less experienced, Oden and Rudy. Outlaw is marked down because of his defense. Batum and Bayless haven't played enough have a big impact. Sergio is Sergio.

What this really drives home, is how weak the SF and PG positions are, relative to the rest of the team. Our center and SG tandems are a strength, while LMA is holding his own at PF. (just FYI, Amare rates a 6.4 - not as superior to LMA as you might expect).

Just found this interesting.

 

[Minstrel]

Yeah, BP's WARP is pretty interesting. I'm not entirely sure how they calculate defense...I should investigate that sometime. I do like the idea of "cumulative" measures (ones that add up, such that how much you play matters) to balance rate stats like PER.

I think it's encouraging that Oden has a pretty solid score even by WARP. He's on pace to be around a 5 win player, which I believe is quite good.

You're right, though. The small forward position has been a bit of a mess. It would be great to plug in a solid young-vet small forward. It's just hard to know who's available among those who would be significant upgrades.

 

[BrianFromWA]

Good find, grouch. Does anyone know what the standard is? I mean, does Sergio's .7 means that he's better for us than an average PG in the league? Average backup PG? Average PG with 20mpg?

And what's the time horizon on this? Is it just this year, or can you have cumulative WARPs?

 

[oldmangrouch]

Good find, grouch. Does anyone know what the standard is? I mean, does Sergio's .7 means that he's better for us than an average PG in the league? Average backup PG? Average PG with 20mpg?

And what's the time horizon on this? Is it just this year, or can you have cumulative WARPs?

The score is just for this season. I'm not quite sure how to evaluate Sergio's number. I *think* it means he has been worth almost 1 win, versus replacing him with a hypothetical "league average" PG. That's pretty good, given his limited playing time. I'm not sure if that reflects what a great passer he is, or shows that he is not as bad a scorer/defender as most of us think.

 

[oldmangrouch]

Just to add a bit of perspective.

Some other Western Conf PGs:
Paul 14.8, Kidd 7.9, Billups 6.8, Deron 6, Parker 5.2, Nash 5.1 Westbrook 3.5. (Harris is at 8)

Some SFs (many of whom have been mentioned as trade targets:
Granger 6.6, Durant 6, Wallace 5.6, Butler 4.4, Prince 3.2, Deng 2, Gay .7

One other interesting note. This season, Bosh rates as far above Amare as Amare does above LMA. 8.5 vs 6.4 vs 4.7.

 

[Minstrel]

The score is just for this season. I'm not quite sure how to evaluate Sergio's number. I *think* it means he has been worth almost 1 win, versus replacing him with a hypothetical "league average" PG. That's pretty good, given his limited playing time. I'm not sure if that reflects what a great passer he is, or shows that he is not as bad a scorer/defender as most of us think.

No, it's not above an average point guard. WARP stands for Wins Above Replacement Player. A replacement player is defined as basically freely-available talent. Baseball Prospectus has "replacement player" defined as a AA player...basically, the type of player any team can always find at any position in an emergency. I don't know how Basketball Prospectus defines replacement level, but basically it's a very, very low level. A WARP of 0 would mean being a replacement level player. Being only 0.7 wins above it is pretty bad.

 

[Rip City Revelator]

WARP is a great baseball stat. I'm very interested to see how it turn out for basketball.

 

[LOTBfan]

sweet stat, thanks for posting. much cooler than PER in my opinion for the above mentioned reasons. Anyone got an idea of where the greats are listed?