A discussion of likely new CBA rules and the Blazers

[Further]

We still don't have an answer on the BRI split, and a few other issues, but assuming that most of the settled matters stay as-is, we can start to understand how the CBA will shake out.

This New York times article explains the current situation.

Here are the agreed upon CBA changes

¶ Luxury-tax rate: Teams will be charged $1.50 per $1 spent beyond a threshold, replacing the previous dollar-for-dollar tax, according to people who have seen the plan.

To further discourage spending, the tax will increase for every $5 million spent beyond the threshold: to $1.75 after $5 million, $2.25 after $10 million and $3 after $15 million.

¶ Contract lengths: Players with “Bird” rights will be eligible for five-year deals, while others will be limited to four. The previous C.B.A. allowed for six-year (Bird) and five-year deals. The 1999 C.B.A. allowed for seven-year (Bird) and six-year deals.

¶ Raises: Annual raises will be reduced by several percentage points, possibly as low as 5 percent for Bird players and 3.5 percent for non-Bird players. The prior deal allowed raises as high as 10.5 percent (Bird) and 8 percent.

¶ Midlevel exception: It will start at $5 million, a decrease of $800,000. The contract length and annual raises attached to the exception remain under discussion.

¶ Amnesty clause: Each team will be permitted to waive one player, with pay — anytime during the life of the C.B.A. — and have his salary be exempt from the cap and the luxury tax. Its use will be limited to players already under contract as of July 1, 2011.

¶ Stretch exception: Teams will be permitted to stretch out payments to waived players, spreading out the cap hit, over several seasons. The payment schedule will be set by doubling the years left on the contract and adding one.

There are other areas still under debate, but what we have here is a fairly clear outline of the new CBA. Now we can figure out how much will be saved by cutting Roy, or how new contracts will be structured.

Discuss

 

[BLAZER PROPHET]

It's amazing to me how the players just continue to kick the owner's asses all over the place. I'd say this is a 90% player victory. It also does nothing to prevent players from creating super teams.

I'm beginning to really hate the NBA.

 

[Further]

The super gigantic contracts like the garnett, Kobe, Duncan, Lewis are the ones that will take the biggest hits in the future.

If player X is a superstar and plays 15 years in the league, even without a change in BRI, the contracts will end up quite a bit smaller. (still huge by normal standards)

Assume first 4 years are the same as they are based on a rookie scale. Lets say they are the number 1 pick, and over the first 4 years make ~$20million

But here is where they differ. Let's assume under both situations, their fifth year, first year under a new contract, they get a max contracts starting at $12 million and lets assume they stay with their current teams and receive bird rights contracts

Old CBA
year 5: 12mil
year 6: 13.26
year 7: 14.65
year 8: 19.19
year 9: 17.89
year 10: 19.77
year 11: 21.85
year 12: 24.14
year 13: 26.67
year 14: 29.47
year 15: 32.57 million in the last year of 15 years in the league with max increases every year from bird right contracts.

NEW CBA
year 5: 12 mil
year 6: 12.6
year 7: 13.23
year 8: 13.89
year 9: 14.59
year 10: 15.32
year 11: 16.08
year 12: 17.73
year 13: 18.62
year 14: 19.55
year 15: 20.52 million in the last year of 15 years in the league with max increases every year from bird right contracts.

Total earned over 15 years in the league under old contract 248 million

Total earned over 15 years in the league under new contract 190 million

All this assumes the same BRI which we know will also change. It also assumes a number 1 draft pick earning around 20 mil in first 4 years and a first max contract starting at 12mil


EDIT:
I also figured out the same situation if the players left their original teams both times and so did not receive bird rights.

Old CBA final year of 15 years in the league without bird rights would be 25.7 million and a total earned of 220 million

New CBA final year of 15 years in the league without bird rights would be 16.9 million and a total earned of 178 million

 

[Mediocre Man]

It's amazing to me how the players just continue to kick the owner's asses all over the place. I'd say this is a 90% player victory. It also does nothing to prevent players from creating super teams.

I'm beginning to really hate the NBA.

Really? Maybe I misread some stuff, but I saw it the other way. The owners are getting cuts everywhere.

 

[Charcoal Filtered]

It's amazing to me how the players just continue to kick the owner's asses all over the place. I'd say this is a 90% player victory. It also does nothing to prevent players from creating super teams.

I'm beginning to really hate the NBA.

The luxury tax is where the super teams are discouraged, but not prohibited. Compared to the last CBA, the players are making major concessions.

 

[Further]

I would have like non-bird right raises to be around 3% and bird right raises around 6%, I think that would be the best shot at keeping players from making superteams. 1.5% difference I don't think is enough to quell the exodus from current teams.

 

[Charcoal Filtered]

I would have like non-bird right raises to be around 3% and bird right raises around 6%, I think that would be the best shot at keeping players from making superteams. 1.5% difference I don't think is enough to quell the exodus from current teams.

I do not think the 3% would make a difference in influence. Keeping it low makes for less obligation on teams that keep their players while making teams signing free agents have to give compensation in sign-n-trades as the marquee players are not leaving a nickel on the ground.

 

[Further]

I do not think the 3% would make a difference in influence. Keeping it low makes for less obligation on teams that keep their players while making teams signing free agents have to give compensation in sign-n-trades as the marquee players are not leaving a nickel on the ground.

Well, every player is different, and it would affect some, and not others, but I think the difference between 3% and 6% along with one year additional would sway many players into sticking with their current team.

Let's look at what the numbers would be.
At 3% if the player started at 12million over a 4 year contract, the numbers would be:
first year: 12 mil
second: 12.36 mil
third: 12.73 mil
fourth: 13.11 mil
for a contract total of 50.2 million

At 6% if the player started at 12million over a 5 year contract, the numbers would be:
first year: 12 mil
second: 12.72 mil
third: 13.48 mil
fourth: 14.29 mil
fifth: 15.15
for a contract total of 67.65 million

That seems to me like a substantial difference that would convince many players to stick with their current team.

 

[Charcoal Filtered]

That seems to me like a substantial difference that would convince many players to stick with their current team.

The difference was bigger in the last CBA and it did little to discourage the superteam.

 

[Further]

The difference was bigger in the last CBA and it did little to discourage the superteam.

The difference was bigger in the last CBA since it was 3.5% instead of 3%, however with players making less to begin with, I think they will be more likely to want to squeeze out all the money they can during their short career. Either way, I do agree that the current 1.5% listed in the new CBA is not going to be enough to stop many players.

I think the more likely impediment to players making superteams is the new Luxury Tax Rate which will make teams much less willing to go substantially over the tax threshold. So, if teams are not willing to pay the players, then the choice is out of the players hands regardless of raises per year. Sure, there will still be teams that go over the threshold, but fewer of them, and more importantly, fewer that will go considerably over the threshold.

As an example, here is a quote from the NYT article

Under this system, the Los Angeles Lakers would have paid $42.5 million in taxes last season, compared with $20 million under the old formula.

 

[STOMP]

Re:

It's amazing to me how the players just continue to kick the owner's asses all over the place. I'd say this is a 90% player victory. It also does nothing to prevent players from creating super teams.

I'm beginning to really hate the NBA.

beginning? You already approve of the superstar officiating system? I'd love to see the current league go down in flames to be reborn with a better focus on whats best for the game from the get go. The current labor parties in dispute are so focused in allotting dollars in the short term, they're missing out on whats truly possible. Raise interest and everybody wins. The NFL is king with less then 20% of the games. Supply and demand?

STOMP

 

[Charcoal Filtered]

Re:

beginning? You already approve of the superstar officiating system? I'd love to see the current league go down in flames to be reborn with a better focus on whats best for the game from the get go. The current labor parties in dispute are so focused in allotting dollars in the short term, they're missing out on whats truly possible. Raise interest and everybody wins. The NFL is king with less then 20% of the games. Supply and demand?

STOMP

Agreed. I would rather have 50% of a $4B pie than 53% of a $3B pie. The superstar system also works well when you have Bird/Magic or Jordan to showcase it. The assclowns in Miami, Shaq, and the alleged rapist are definitely a step down from the standard set by those guys. San Antonio could have filled the void, but it is hard to root for a team that flops so much and is not very entertaining. The only player I currently see people liking as much is Durant, but playing in OKC is going to be a huge hinderance.

Both sides should always be trying to make the game better. However, David "I know where the bodies are buried" Stern makes having a workable relationship with the union impossible.

 

[Charcoal Filtered]

Re:

I think the more likely impediment to players making superteams is the new Luxury Tax Rate

The luxury tax is where the super teams are discouraged, but not prohibited.

We were already in agreement, but thanks for showing the numbers.

 

[THE HCP]

Great update on the latest........

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/20...nba-labor-proposals/index.html?sct=nba_t11_a0

 

[Nikolokolus]

Really? Maybe I misread some stuff, but I saw it the other way. The owners are getting cuts everywhere.

No I think you have it right. The way the new system is setting up, only Dolan, Buss and Cuban are going to be able to severely overspend without completely killing their pocketbooks (they'll recoup high salaries through their lucrative local broadcasting deals, and merchandise sales, etc.) Teams that used to flirt with luxury tax line or moderately exceed it -- especially in small markets -- aren't likely to continue to do so.

When you throw in shortened contracts, the net effect is going to be less money for players ... a lot less money in most cases (minus the superstars).

 

[The_Lillard_King]

No franchise tag, that sucks. Don't see anything here that will stop the trend of the super teams. Stars, when it's their time, will have 3 or 4 teams they will be picking from to play for. Many small market teams will become irrelevant. Hope that isn't the Blazers.

 

[Mediocre Man]

No franchise tag, that sucks. Don't see anything here that will stop the trend of the super teams. Stars, when it's their time, will have 3 or 4 teams they will be picking from to play for. Many small market teams will become irrelevant. Hope that isn't the Blazers.

Super teams is something that tried to be addressed, but unfortunately, the players would never go for the hard cap. The new CBA will make it a little more painful for those teams, but not enough. The signing and trading of players for the sake of trading them is probably the biggest. Bosh got a lot more money because they worked out a sign and trade. Maybe if that weren't an option, he would have thought a lot more about staying in Toronto?