Another sign economy may be turning

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The_Lillard_King

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NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. consumer confidence rose in early May to its strongest since the September failure of Lehman Brothers, with rising expectations the economy may be in the last stages of the recession, a survey showed on Friday.

The Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers said its preliminary index of confidence for May rose to 67.9 from 65.1 in April. This was above economists' median expectation of a reading of 67.0, according to a Reuters poll.

The index of consumer expectations jumped to 69.0 in early May, its highest since October 2007 and up from 63.1 in April.

"Consumer confidence rose in early May as consumers became increasingly convinced that the economy is in its final stages of contraction, and paradoxically, that their personal finances would remain dismal and keep their spending at reduced levels for the foreseeable future," the Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers said in a statement.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/US-co...66.html?sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=



I hope the economy is turning. In my little business world, I don't feel it turning . . . but Oregon seems to lag behind in both when the recession hits and when the economy recovers.

Nike jut announced 500 layoffs in Beaverton (1,750 cuts from Nike overall). I see Joes going out of business, rumors of other companies in danger, Chrysler and GM closing thousands of franchises. Still, I get the sense this thing is turning around . . . let's hope so.
 
There is nothing in the fundamentals that should give anyone any hope that the economy is turning around. Credit is still difficult to get, we're still losing jobs at an alarming rate and with our profligate spending, taxes and inflation are both going to increase.
 
It's an odd situation.

Investing in the stock market is being discouraged by Obama as raised capitol gains taxes by 35% and he wants the markets to have a substantially lower wave. I agree with the later, but not the former.

He wants the feds to have part ownership in large american companies and also give them over to union ownership, ala Europe. Again, I see his thinking, but the bond holders are being horribly raped and it has placed the national debt into an area we shall never hope to recover from.

He wants a single payer national health care system- I may disagree, but it's a matter of opinion. In some respects it would be better and in some it would be worse. But to do so at the expense of millions and millions of jobs and people not getting the care they need, unnecessary deaths, far less advancements in medicine... seems disasterous. On the other hand, it provides a bona fide health care policy to every person residing in the country which is something most people would agree we need in some form or another.

Housing market is starting to pick up, but so are forclosures.

We are now bracing for the commercial property sector to fully collapse and the impact is going to be unbearable.

Companies that have been supporting the economy are now going flat on earnings...

So it's definately mixed signals. I sure hope it overall positive.
 
I am not a huge fan of credit... I have 1 house payment and 1 vehicle payment... that is it. Credit was being handed out like candy there for awhile. There was a time when I had to move into a pretty nasty appt for a very short time while a house I was having built was being finished... and some of the very low income residents there all had monster AV systems... tricked out stereos in their cars... new furnature... nice toys... all things I couldn't afford even with a good job. "No down payment? No credit? No problem!" :sigh:
 
I am not a huge fan of credit... I have 1 house payment and 1 vehicle payment... that is it. Credit was being handed out like candy there for awhile. There was a time when I had to move into a pretty nasty appt for a very short time while a house I was having built was being finished... and some of the very low income residents there all had monster AV systems... tricked out stereos in their cars... new furnature... nice toys... all things I couldn't afford even with a good job. "No down payment? No credit? No problem!" :sigh:

Good point. Now that credit is harder to get, I wonder how confidence is up. It could be that prices have dropped and gas remains reasonable. I noticed last night that more stores have some really good sales to attract buyers.
 
This article is not a little old, but take a look. Hard to see any signs up improving consumer confidence there.

https://mail.google.com/a/google.com/?AuthEventSource=SSO#label/economics/120b25c3f80a51bd

I'm lost. You supply an old link to say hard to see consumer confidence improving. I put out a current link taht says consumer confidence is rising. I would think the more recent link would be a better indication if consumer confidence is rising . . . or is it that the source in the link that you disagree with?
 
Confidence was so low it may not have had anywhere to go but up.

I don't know. I refinanced my house right in the middle of when the banks and everything were supposed to be out of money and I didn't have a problem. Credit and dept probably doesn't make people feel great. I know at times I was in a hole so bad I didn't think I'd ever get out... and credit was a big part of that. Making min payments on a $10,000 credit card is recipe for disaster.
 
BLAZER PROPHET said:
We are now bracing for the commercial property sector to fully collapse and the impact is going to be unbearable.

Commercial real estate will be the biggest test. Look for more and more signs of cracks by fall. The holiday buying season might help the situation but after that its more than likely too much for the market to bear.
 
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I'm surprised our economy hasn't been reduced to bartering small wooden figurines and animal pelts, seeing as how the economic sector (as well as every other branch of government) is now ruled solely a bumbling, clueless, Marxist former lawyer turned fake messiah
 
Potentially because very few of the people I know can a) whittle wooden figurines, b) hunt and kill animals with pelts, c) do anything with the pelts if they did manage to kill it, and d) grow enough food to subside on while whittling.

My skill is a relatively specialized one. And yet, even if I went to the library and checked out a book, and learned how and wanted to grow corn in my yard, the homeowners' association says I can't.

So, imho, the "bumbling, Marxist former lawyer" doesn't have a lot of leeway in his scheme to make major changes in our way of life. And personally, I haven't been too impressed with the results. :dunno: But here's hoping he's able to pull off what 150 years of communistic thinkers haven't been able to do--make it somehow efficient and profitable.
 
Consumer confidence rose in early May as consumers became increasingly convinced that the economy is in its final stages of contraction, and paradoxically, that their personal finances would remain dismal and keep their spending at reduced levels for the foreseeable future," the Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers said in a statement.

Wondering how this is good news or a sign of the economy turning. :dunno:
 
I was at a BBQ with MBA's from USC over the weekend...they claim that from their 06 class, 40% are unemployed. Getting a job is tough, and when they do get a job, its for a pretty low wage (at least for an MBA from a decent school).
 
Wondering how this is good news or a sign of the economy turning. :dunno:

It was the line before that that I felt was good news . . . not great news and not saying thre isn't a long road ahead. But 3 months ago I couldn't find any good news (remember your post about dow at 6500 and how bad things are).

I think even the optomistic people realize it will be a long up and down road to recovery . . . but the question of if a recovery is in sight can now at least be debated.
 
I was at a BBQ with MBA's from USC over the weekend...they claim that from their 06 class, 40% are unemployed. Getting a job is tough, and when they do get a job, its for a pretty low wage (at least for an MBA from a decent school).

Meanwhile a poster here graduates with an impressive business resume from OSU and lands a job within 6 months. Just never can tell in this economy.

Maybe those USC boys aren't in the biggest hurry to get a job . . . what with thier trust accounts and all. :D
 
Meanwhile a poster here graduates with an impressive business resume from OSU and lands a job within 6 months. Just never can tell in this economy.

Maybe those USC boys aren't in the biggest hurry to get a job . . . what with thier trust accounts and all. :D

:waveswallet:
 
I still think the job market is pretty dismal as is the housing market....I keep on hearing commercial real estate is the next to get fucked over....there's a looming cloud that people are just avoiding to acknowledge and when it hits...blammo.

I saw something about the underwater mortgates in Las Vegas...70% of the mortgages are underwater. that is fucking amazing. Its a fantastic time to buy if you're liquid.
 
BUT, I've got to say the two industries right now that are pretty prime to invest or start-up in is clean energy and healthcare. With Obama earmarking a shitload of effort into these, its a FANTASTIC business opportunity right now to get in before anyone knows what the fuck they're doing. The Energy and Healthcare "bubbles" are next.
 
oh, I am hiring right now but unless you want to be paid $5/hour I wouldn't bother applying

:clap:
 
I don't see how the govt. is going to subsidize an even larger waste of money on green energy programs.
 
oh. the money is out there. are you going to take it?

are you man enough to take it?

Sure I'd take it, it's like getting a portion of my taxes back.

On the other hand, I still don't see how they're going to afford the soup kitchens and to sell widgets that cost $2 to make for $1 each.

The strategy seems to be to make up for the losses with volume.
 
Sure I'd take it, it's like getting a portion of my taxes back.

On the other hand, I still don't see how they're going to afford the soup kitchens and to sell widgets that cost $2 to make for $1 each.

The strategy seems to be to make up for the losses with volume.

it was a line from Glengarry Glen Ross, the Alec Baldwin speech.

I liken this clean energy boom to the dot-com era...lots of promises, there is money set aside...but in the end, its going to be a lot of hoo-hah and hype over anything.

one can be quite profitable setting some kind of VC firm, development company, investment fund or other type of scam for this money.
 
http://www.reuters.com/article/economicNews/idUSN1450507420090518?pageNumber=1&virtualBrandChannel=0

FEATURE-Blue collar U.S. males lose more ground

Mon May 18, 2009 7:00pm EDT
* U.S. male unemployment rate surges past national average
* Blue collar men take worst hit, wages keep falling
* Construction may recover; many assembly jobs are gone

By Ed Stoddard

DALLAS, May 19 (Reuters) - Rodney Ringler is an unemployed blue collar male without a college degree. He's hardly alone. Men like him have been the main victims of the current recession in the United States.

"I haven't worked since December of 2007, around the time this recession started," Ringler, a 49-year-old computer technician, said as he walked his dog in a Dallas suburb.

He sees little light at the end of the tunnel.

"I've been looking to get into law enforcement because it's a growth area," he said, but had no immediate prospects.

One statistic that stands out in America's recession-stung economy is the unemployment rate for adult men: in April for the second month in a row it surged ahead of the national average to 9.4 percent versus 8.9 percent for all workers. The jobless rate for adult women was 7.1 percent.

The reasons are clear: male-heavy sectors such as construction and manufacturing have been hard hit. But the implications may be dire for the broader economy and hamper the recovery as families that once had male breadwinners struggle.

"In the 2001 recession, 51 percent of all job losses were for men. It was evenly split. But in this recession 80 percent of the jobs that have been lost have been men's," said Andrew Sum, a labor economics professor at Northeastern University who has studied this issue in detail.

Men also incurred about 80 percent of the job losses in the 1990-91 recession, but Sum said by his calculations the numbers this time were dramatically different. In the 1990-91 recession, men lost 1.037 million jobs. They have lost 4.5 million to date in this one.

"This time around it is amazingly different in terms of the magnitude," Sum said.

It's difficult to compare to earlier recessions because women entered the workforce in big numbers from the 1970s, and industries that continue to grow such as health services favor women.

The male jobless rate is pumped up by white collar banking jobs lost during the global financial crisis. A few of these may have been sent overseas but job growth in this sector should come back in time, analysts said.

HARD TIMES AHEAD

The fact that American males without a college degree are especially vulnerable in this cycle point to more hard times ahead for the U.S. working class, which has endured stagnant and declining wages for the last three decades.

The skilled and semi-skilled jobs they traditionally held have been moving overseas to places like China and Vietnam. The jobs that remain pay less, amid declining union membership.

One study by Julia Isaacs of the Brookings Institution think-tank found median U.S. family income rose to $53,280 by the middle of this decade in 2004 dollars from $37,384 in 1964. But for males aged 30 to 39, average annual personal income fell from the mid-1970s by around $5,000 to $35,000.

The growth in family incomes is mostly from women entering the workforce. But during this recession that will hardly compensate given the scale of male job losses.

For those without a college degree or better, it has been a bloodbath.

"College-educated men have lost 1.4 percent of their employment levels since right before the beginning of the recession in November 2007, but for men as a whole it has been nearly six percent," said Sum.

Sum said in the last recession the effects were felt more evenly across gender and occupational lines and that construction jobs grew from mid-2002 onward at a strong rate through 2007. But production and manufacturing jobs fell steadily through 2005 before making a modest recovery, and then falling swiftly.

EXPANDED WOMEN'S ROLE

This is grim news for struggling blue collar families. While women's role in the workforce has expanded, by some estimates the male remains the main breadwinner in about 75 percent of two-income U.S. households.

"When males lose their jobs ... women become more important to family income, and those that have not been working will re-enter the labor market to sustain family income," said Peter Doeringer, a Professor of Economics at Boston University.

Patti Sutton, 58, a coffee shop worker in the Phoenix Valley, falls into this category.

Her husband Scott was laid off in October last year. He had worked for 18 years for a company as a heavy equipment operator excavating the foundations for luxury homes, earning about $800-900 a week without overtime, and was among the last five workers to be laid off from a staff of 155.

"I am now the family breadwinner," said Sutton. She went out to work to get health insurance coverage for her husband in the year before he was laid off after he lost coverage for a heart condition from his employer. He needs a heart transplant, and was facing insurance costs of $1,800 a month.

"It's not like I'm exactly earning enough to be the breadwinner," she said. "Basically this job is for insurance, what I bring home barely covers food and maybe a utility."

Her situation may be permanent, she said, though construction jobs are seen coming back eventually, spurred in part by President Barack Obama's $787 billion fiscal stimulus plan that includes funds for road and bridge construction.

But many manufacturing jobs are gone for good, as huge sectors like the auto industry suffer profound cuts.
Doeringer said the recession will leave the economy "sharply restructured".

"The construction jobs will return, but we are seeing an unusually sharp drop in what is left of manufacturing and much of that drop will not be recovered when the recession ends, and much of what does remain will have be at lower wages with reduced fringe benefits," he said.

(Additional reporting by Tim Gaynor in Phoenix, editing by Philip Barbara)
 
http://money.cnn.com/2009/05/20/news/economy/fed_minutes/index.htm

Fed's economic forecast worsens

Central bank now expects unemployment to rise to a range of 9.2% to 9.6% this year. Fed also predicts a sharper decline in GDP than it had forecast in January.

By Chris Isidore, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: May 20, 2009: 4:20 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The Federal Reserve's latest forecasts for the U.S. economy are gloomier than the ones released three months earlier, with an expectation for higher unemployment and a steeper drop in economic activity.

The Fed's forecasts, released as part of the minutes from its April meeting, show that its staff now expects the unemployment rate to rise to between 9.2% and 9.6% this year. The central bank had forecast in January that the jobless rate would be in a range of 8.5% to 8.8%, but the unemployment rate topped that in April, hitting 8.9%.

The Fed also now expects the gross domestic product, the broadest measure of the nation's economic activity, to post a drop of between 1.3% and 2% this year. It had previously expected only a 0.5% to 1.3% decline.

At the April meeting, the Fed decided to once again leave its key federal funds rate near 0%, a level it has been at since last December. The central bank also announced that it did not plan on increasing purchasing more long-term Treasury notes anytime soon.

The Fed disclosed plans to begin buying $300 billion's worth of such Treasurys in March in order to try and keep long-term rates down and boost economic activity.

But according to the minutes, some members of the central bank's policy committee indicated they were open to increasing its purchases of Treasury notes and mortgage securities as a way of spurring more lending.

Treasury prices rallied after the minutes were released, pushing their yield, which moves in the opposite direction, down to 3.18%.

Stocks, which have moved sharply higher during the past two months on hopes that the recession may soon be ending, fell Wednesday afternoon.

According to the minutes, Fed members did indicate they expected GDP to increase slightly in the second half of this year. However, it would not be enough to overcome the anticipated declines in the first half. GDP shrunk more than 6% in the first quarter.

Policymakers acknowledged that there were some better economic readings in the period leading up to the April meeting, but added that they were not convinced the economy was out of the woods yet.

In the minutes, Fed members indicated that there are a number of factors that "would be likely to restrain the pace of economic recovery over the medium term" and added that the credit crunch would "recede only gradually" and that "households would likely remain cautious" in their spending.

Fed members expressed concerns about rising problems in the commercial real estate market as well, indicating that this could cause further problems for financial institutions still struggling with the effects of the collapse of home prices and rising mortgage defaults.

The Fed also reduced its GDP targets for 2010 and 2011, but the central banks still expects the economy to grow in both years.

Rich Yamarone, director of economic research at Argus Research, said that the Fed's new forecasts were "more of a reality check than a revision," given the deterioration in the labor market and overall economy since January.

But he and other economists said it also appeared from the minutes that the Fed is pleased with how the economy has started to respond to the steps it has taken, including the purchases of mortgages and Treasurys.

"I read [the minutes] as 'We think it's working, let's wait a few months to see how it plays out,'" said Gus Faucher - director of macroeconomics at Moody's Economy.com. He added that it did not seem like the Fed felt a "sense of urgency" to increase the scope of its Treasury purchase program.

And Yamarone said it's important to remember that the forecasts and minutes are three weeks old, and that economic readings since the meeting, including home sales and the rate of job losses, have generally showed signs of improvement.

"These minutes look like they have a bleaker assessment, but things were darker then," he said. "I can't say it's an accurate interpretation of their outlook today. I think that would be a little more favorable."

First Published: May 20, 2009: 2:17 PM ET
 

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