Assist Distribution from the PG Position/Roy

[PapaG]

BLANKY - 17 'close'/15 'dunk' - 79 assists total. 40.5% of BLANKY'S assists to 'inside'.

Miller - 14 'close'/17 'dunk' - 96 assists total. 32% of Miller's assists to 'inside'.

Bayless - 1 'close'/0 'dunk' - 13 assists total. 7.7% of Bayless' assists to 'inside'.

Roy - 24 'close'/16 'dunk' - 103 assists total. 38.8% of Roy's assists to 'inside'.

Outside of Bayless, these stats are pretty much the opposite of what I've gathered from conventional wisdom, and they do surprise me a bit.

Data from 82games.com

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Where are you getting these stats, and what exactly do they mean?

 

[PapaG]

Where are you getting these stats, and what exactly do they mean?

Sorry, I posted the link afterward in the original post. 82games.com breaks down assists by 3pt, jump shot, close shot, and dunk. I was surprised at that Blake leads the PGs/Roy in getting the largest % of his assists on either close shots (layups, very short in lane shots), or dunks.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Sorry, I posted the link afterward in the original post. 82games.com breaks down assists by 3pt, jump shot, close shot, and dunk. I was surprised at that Blake leads the PGs/Roy in getting the largest % of his assists on either close shots (layups, very short in lane shots), or dunks.

I'm not a huge Blake-basher, but one explanation could be that he can't penetrate, so most of his passes are from the outside looking in. Penetrators tend to get to the basket and kick out when the defense collapses. Any defense that collapses on Blake should be taken out and shot.

 

[PapaG]

I'm not a huge Blake-basher, but one explanation could be that he can't penetrate, so most of his passes are from the outside looking in. Penetrators tend to get to the basket and kick out when the defense collapses. Any defense that collapses on Blake should be taken out and shot.

That's an explanation, but I've read many posters on this board state that Blake can't enter the ball into the post. The fact is, he has more "inside" assists by percentage than any other player on the team, although Roy has the most by volume.

Certainly isn't anything groundbreaking, but the idea flashed into my mind while perusing 82games.com, so I did a quick analysis to see where the team's primary ball handlers are distributing the ball.

 

[hasoos]

That's an explanation, but I've read many posters on this board state that Blake can't enter the ball into the post. The fact is, he has more "inside" assists by percentage than any other player on the team, although Roy has the most by volume.

Certainly isn't anything groundbreaking, but the idea flashed into my mind while perusing 82games.com, so I did a quick analysis to see where the team's primary ball handlers are distributing the ball.

Do you not agree that there is a difference between entering the ball into the post and getting an inside bucket? For instance, I see Blake run pick and rolls from time to time successfully. Much more successfully than when he enters post passes, because for the most part, he doesn't make the pass.

 

[PapaG]

Do you not agree that there is a difference between entering the ball into the post and getting an inside bucket? For instance, I see Blake run pick and rolls from time to time successfully. Much more successfully than when he enters post passes, because for the most part, he doesn't make the pass.

As I said, this isn't groundbreaking. I'm simply relaying information that I found to be topical, and the results did surprise me. Just some more chum thrown in to the sea of BLANKY, I guess. People will eat what they want to of it.

 

[hasoos]

As I said, this isn't groundbreaking. I'm simply relaying information that I found to be topical, and the results did surprise me. Just some more chum thrown in to the sea of BLANKY, I guess. People will eat what they want to of it.

I guess my question to you is this then. Steve Blake averages 3.9 assist per game. Is it worth those 3.9 assist per game in diametric opposition to the .58 pts/Minutes that Bayless is currently scoring at? Bayless is averaging 5.9 pts in 10.1 minutes. That is .58 pts/minute.

Blake plays 29 minutes a game. If Bayless was playing 29 minutes a game that would be

.58 pts/min *29 minutes= 16.82 pts. Bayless would also put up 4 assist in that period of time according to the rate at which he gets assist.

So what is greater. 7 pts and 4 assist, or 16.82 pts and 4assist, and upside?

 

[PapaG]

I guess my question to you is this then. Steve Blake averages 3.9 assist per game. Is it worth those 3.9 assist per game in diametric opposition to the .58 pts/Minutes that Bayless is currently scoring at? Bayless is averaging 5.9 pts in 10.1 minutes. That is .58 pts/minute.

Blake plays 29 minutes a game. If Bayless was playing 29 minutes a game that would be

.58 pts/min *29 minutes= 16.82 pts. Bayless would also put up 4 assist in that period of time according to the rate at which he gets assist.

So what is greater. 7 pts and 4 assist, or 16.82 pts and 4assist, and upside?

Bayless won't be shooting as much, or have the ball as much, as he does on the second unit. He'll go from at times the #1 option off the bench to the #4 option in the starting line-up. I don't think his stats translate in a direct correlation because his offensive role will be different (and should be different) in the starting line-up.

Regardless, Bayless is going to get a lot of minutes going forward this season. I am anxious to see what he does as teams start to get more tape on him, and how his role evolves during the season.

 

[blue32]

Bayless won't be shooting as much, or have the ball as much, as he does on the second unit. He'll go from at times the #1 option off the bench to the #4 option in the starting line-up. I don't think his stats translate in a direct correlation because his offensive role will be different (and should be different) in the starting line-up.

Regardless, Bayless is going to get a lot of minutes going forward this season. I am anxious to see what he does as teams start to get more tape on him, and how his role evolves during the season.

I don't think this is entirely accurate. The reason why the other guys don't shoot as much on the first unit is because they defer because their skill-set is limited. Bayless being aggressive and capable isn't going to defer and will likely get more plays called for him; as opposed to Steve Blake. I wonder when a play is even called for Stevie. I agree he may get a few less touches, but it wont be as much as you assume. Of course this is all opinion..

 

[PapaG]

I don't think this is entirely accurate. The reason why the other guys don't shoot as much on the first unit is because they defer because their skill-set is limited. Bayless being aggressive and capable isn't going to defer and will likely get more plays called for him; as opposed to Steve Blake. I wonder when a play is even called for Stevie. I agree he may get a few less touches, but it wont be as much as you assume. Of course this is all opinion..

What if I don't want any plays called for Bayless as long as Roy and LMA are on the court? Blake never has plays called for him, yet he gets shots on kick outs. I don't know, I just don't see putting an undersized SG in the starting line-up as the PG and expecting him to be successful. He couldn't do it in Summer League; why will he be successful mid-season. I say let him continue his hybrid role off of the bench. I think that is perfect for him right now, and I'm excited to see how he responds.

 

[yakbladder]

I don't think this is entirely accurate. The reason why the other guys don't shoot as much on the first unit is because they defer because their skill-set is limited. Bayless being aggressive and capable isn't going to defer and will likely get more plays called for him; as opposed to Steve Blake. I wonder when a play is even called for Stevie. I agree he may get a few less touches, but it wont be as much as you assume. Of course this is all opinion..

Uhhh...huh?

They defer because their skill-set is limited?

So Roy, LMA, and originally Oden are limited?

Or are you just referring to fill-in-the-blank PG, and fill-in-the-blank SF?

Isn't Webster's job to shoot the ball? Wasn't that the one thing he brought to the table supposedly?

I don't think it goes without saying that Roy and LMA will get the vast bulk of the shooting attempts. I'm not positive Bayless will get an increase.

 

[PapaG]

I don't think it goes without saying that Roy and LMA will get the vast bulk of the shooting attempts. I'm not positive Bayless will get an increase.

Bayless can become a smaller version of Outlaw off of the bench. That's what this team NEEDS from him right now if they want to compete this year. If they want to tank it, start him at PG and roll with the bumps in the road.

Roy/LMA/Miller/and yes, Bayless need to have their shots increased without Oden, Outlaw, and Rudy available. If either Blake or Webster can climb the 4% needed to get to 40% on 3pt for the year, they will get more shots as well.

The players were wondering about roles. Right now, Nate has the chance to really firm up the roles, and the pieces available don't make it a difficult task.

 

[blue32]

Uhhh...huh?

They defer because their skill-set is limited?

So Roy, LMA, and originally Oden are limited?

Or are you just referring to fill-in-the-blank PG, and fill-in-the-blank SF?

Isn't Webster's job to shoot the ball? Wasn't that the one thing he brought to the table supposedly?

I don't think it goes without saying that Roy and LMA will get the vast bulk of the shooting attempts. I'm not positive Bayless will get an increase.

I was referring to Blanky, and Webster, and Pryz. Which leaves all of the touches for Roy/LMA.

I was just thinking that since Bayless has such an aggressive play style that he wont defer as much as Blake and Webs. Which would increase his points playing on the first squad, thus backing up the previous poster who said he would average 16 and 4; and Papa suggested it may reduce his projected stats because of less touches.

Sorry sometimes I get ahead of myself in typing; thinking too fast, typing too slow/little.

 

[blue32]

Bayless can become a smaller version of Outlaw off of the bench. That's what this team NEEDS from him right now if they want to compete this year. If they want to tank it, start him at PG and roll with the bumps in the road.

Roy/LMA/Miller/and yes, Bayless need to have their shots increased without Oden, Outlaw, and Rudy available. If either Blake or Webster can climb the 4% needed to get to 40% on 3pt for the year, they will get more shots as well.

The players were wondering about roles. Right now, Nate has the chance to really firm up the roles, and the pieces available don't make it a difficult task.

I just think right now with the way the three other people are playing, offensively, we cannot afford not to start someone that will score.

 

[BrianFromWA]

Going back to the stats, it has been something I've noticed recently. Much like Webster can have good quarters, Blake can go on tears where he drives and dishes (haven't seen much P&R, but whatever). I don't remember the exact game, but last year he had a quarter where he drove and dumped to Oden and LMA something on the order of 3 plays in a row--and never went back to it.

He's been better at lobs in the halfcourt, though his fastbreaking still needs a lot of work.

I'm happy that he's trying. But even with those stats and a 2.7:1 A/TO ratio, he's still a sub-10 PER. And I'm not certain that his D is anything to write home about. Though to be fair, only 2 or 3 on the team are, and one of them just broke his kneecap.

 

[PapaG]

Going back to the stats, it has been something I've noticed recently. Much like Webster can have good quarters, Blake can go on tears where he drives and dishes (haven't seen much P&R, but whatever). I don't remember the exact game, but last year he had a quarter where he drove and dumped to Oden and LMA something on the order of 3 plays in a row--and never went back to it.

He's been better at lobs in the halfcourt, though his fastbreaking still needs a lot of work.

I'm happy that he's trying. But even with those stats and a 2.7:1 A/TO ratio, he's still a sub-10 PER. And I'm not certain that his D is anything to write home about. Though to be fair, only 2 or 3 on the team are, and one of them just broke his kneecap.

PER makes me wonder what Miller is doing that Blake is not. Because other than FT attempts, they are similar player, except that Blake is a much better shooter.

 

[RoyToy]

PER makes me wonder what Miller is doing that Blake is not. Because other than FT attempts, they are similar player, except that Blake is a much better shooter.

Taking and making more shots at a higher %, averaging more assists in less playing time, averages 4FTA a game compared to Blake's 1.1, and Miller FT% is 82% compared to Blake's 69%(so not only does Blake rarely get there, he sucks when he gets there). And just for the hell of it, Miller is averaging more rebounds while averaging less minutes.

Miller is outplaying Blake while having to make a huge adjustment by coming off the bench. Imagine if he started like he has his whole career.

Miller hasn't been great by any means, but he's pretty much easily better than the grease fire that is Steve Blake. I really can't wait until he is gone.

 

[KingSpeed]

Sorry, I posted the link afterward in the original post. 82games.com breaks down assists by 3pt, jump shot, close shot, and dunk. I was surprised at that Blake leads the PGs/Roy in getting the largest % of his assists on either close shots (layups, very short in lane shots), or dunks.

I'm not surprised. He set Oden up for more wide open dunks than any of the other players. The whole "Blake can't penetrate" myth is ridiculous. Watch the games.

 

[PapaG]

Miller hasn't been great by any means, but he's pretty much easily better than the grease fire that is Steve Blake. I really can't wait until he is gone.

Why? So the Blazers will have less asists inside than they do right now?

The "Miller pounds it inside" argument is a fallacy, statistically.

Now, on with the personal attacks...

 

[RoyToy]

Why?

Because he isn't good?

Hmm.

 

[PapaG]

Because he isn't good?

Hmm.

Steve Kerr won titles with a Blake-like PER. Miller needs to be starting, as I've posted frequently. Blake has a well-defined role. He's a shooter, and I hope his shoulder recovers soon.

 

[RoyToy]

Steve Kerr won titles with a Blake-like PER. Miller needs to be starting, as I've posted frequently. Blake has a well-defined role. He's a shooter, and I hope his shoulder recovers soon.

Well Phil Jackson, Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen aren't walking through that door!

Besides, Steve Blake has never shot over 50% from 3 in a season. Steve Kerr was pretty much 10x the shooter Blake is.

 

[PapaG]

Well Phil Jackson, Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen aren't walking through that door!

Besides, Steve Blake has never shot over 50% from 3 in a season. Steve Kerr was pretty much 10x the shooter Blake is.

Again, his PER was lower than Blake's last year. I don't see the need to rush BLANKY out of Portland.

Hmmm

 

[RoyToy]

Again, his PER was lower than Blake's last year. I don't see the need to rush BLANKY out of Portland.

Hmmm

His CAREER PER was.

When he was winning titles with the Bulls(which was your argument), he had two seasons in a row of 15 PER, bother higher than Blake's career year last year.

Kerr also posted WS of 6+ 4 years in a row, while Blake is pretty much at one.

Stop looking at the Blake of last year and look at this year's - he's not good, which is what matters. Last year doesn't matter anymore.

 

[jlprk]

I'm not a huge Blake-basher, but...Any defense that collapses on Blake should be taken out and shot.

Harsh. You are the biggest Blake lover on the board.