Batum/Kawhi thoughts

[BrianFromWA]

Interesting thought experiment that I'm sure others have been asking about was the recent non-extension of Kawhi Leonard (expecting the max-ish) in combination with Nic's relatively slow start. I figured I'd take a look at the stuff in detail.

First, the facts. Nic is 6'8", 205 and 25 years old. Nic's contract runs through 2015-16, meaning after next season he's an unrestricted free agent. His contract values are $11,765,500 for this season and $12,235,750 next season. He also has a 15% trade ticker, meaning 15% of whatever is left on his contract, meaning that if he's traded this year he gets a cool $3.6M bonus paid by Uncle Paul (prorated through the year, so if he's traded at the deadline it's actually closer to 2.6M). If traded in the summer it would be 1.83M. Additionally, the add to Nic's salary cap value would be split between the number of years left. So if he was traded at the deadline (and earned the 2.6M kicker) there would be an add of 1.3M to this year's salary (for cap and trade purposes) and 1.3M to next year's.

Kawhi is 6'7", 225 and 23 years old, and is on the last year of his rookie contract, meaning that he would be a restricted free agent in July of 2015. His contract value is $2,894,059 this year, and his cap hold this summer for the Spurs is just over $7.2M.

Kawhi's agent has already said that they're looking for the max salary for Leonard.

Cap Math:
First, it would be just about impossible to trade Batum to SAS in a two-team trade. SAS has a team salary number of 70.2M, over the cap of 63.1M but below the luxury tax line of 76.8M. There are a few permutations to it (PM me if you want the gory details) but basically they have to throw at least 8.7M in in trades to make it work. As stated, Kawhi makes ~2.9M, so they'd need to send out another 5.8M at the very least. SAS doesn't have a bunch of "bad" contracts, though...the only ones above 5.8M are Parker, Duncan, Splitter, Ginobili and Diaw--none of whom they're going to give up just for the benefit of giving us Kawhi for Nic. MAYBE you could add Danny Green (4.0M) and Bellinelli's contract (2.8M) or Green/Ayers/Baynes, but now you're talking 4-for-1s and that rarely happens in the NBA.

However, this summer is a different ball of wax. Kawhi would be a restricted free agent, and much like Nic 2 years ago would be eligible to have any offer sheet he signed matched by the Spurs. They have reason to maintain his cap hold as long as possible (since his 7.2M cap hold this summer will be much smaller than the value of any contract he signs) allowing the Spurs to allocate all of their cap space prior to signing Kawhi, whom they're allowed to go over the cap for. However, Nic can be traded in an "extend-and-trade", allowing him to sign for 3 more years (running his contract through 2019) if they'd like. His "max" in 2015 would not be the same as Kawhi's, as Nic falls under the "7-9 years experience" 30%-of-cap provision rather than the "0-6 years" 25% max, but SAS would save some money next year and have a similar contract going forward to a player who may fit better with their team.

Sooooo....while a trade of Nic for Kawhi could happen, it can likely only happen this summer, when SAS does a sign-and-trade to us for Nic, who we're extending-then-trading. Do you think it'd be worth it, for them or for us?

 

[jlprk]

The Spurs have eyed Batum, since Parker is chummy with Frenchmen.

 

[Rhal]

I know i'm not the only one who is really really worried that Kawhi wouldn't be nearly the same Kawhi on a different team. If we had capspace to just outright sign him thats a different story and i'd give him a max offer sheet.
If the Spurs trade Kawhi for Nic this summer they are only guaranteed to save themselves money the first year. If Kawhi gets the derek rose rookie max it would line him up with kyrie irving who will make 14,746,000 the first year of his max. Thats several million dollar savings but you have Kawhi locked up at close to that number for 4 more years. Batum on the other hand will become unrestricted the moment the TV deal hits the salary cap and thats an unknown for how much it will effect it but everyone knows its going to go up, Batum wont' sign an extension with the Spurs knowing he will be going into the open market as an unrestricted free agent when every team will have LOADS of capspace. If Batum gets any kind of raise then swapping Batum out for Kawhi doesnt' really save the Spurs anything unless they let Batum walk.
I can't see the Spurs doing this unless they think Batum is an upgrade over Kawhi which leads me to the biggest thing I have against this is that if the Spurs are willing to let their Finals MVP go in a trade then I sure as hell don't want to be the team to give the Spurs the player they value more then Kawhi.

 

[blue9]

I know i'm not the only one who is really really worried that Kawhi wouldn't be nearly the same Kawhi on a different team.
...
I can't see the Spurs doing this unless they think Batum is an upgrade over Kawhi which leads me to the biggest thing I have against this is that if the Spurs are willing to let their Finals MVP go in a trade then I sure as hell don't want to be the team to give the Spurs the player they value more then Kawhi.

Agreed. Kawhi is a great player FOR the Spurs. He'd merely be a good player on any other team. My #1 rule: never trade with the Spurs because you're buying high and the only direction for the player to go is down.

 

[BrianFromWA]

Normally I'd be with you on this. The one thing that intrigues me is that I think the bulldog defensive mentality (not that Nic is a slouch, but Kawhi's All-NBA defense), a little bigger, and more of an efficient (if more limited) offensive game.

I think that if you're going to build around LMA/Lillard, that Kawhi (for roughly the same dollars over the next few years) is better for us than Nic, and that's even without the idea that Nic might go to the Spurs (or anywhere else) for nothing 1 year later, you know, when the whole world has cap space.

I'll put it this way...do you trust Bouma Ndiaye?

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

Exactly! Ndiaye did everything in his power to get Nic out of Portland.

I'd do this in a heartbeat.