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I don't think a 2-loss Bama's getting the Sugar over a 1-loss Florida or LSU, but I could definitely be wrong. Especially if UGA wins bigger than the 17-9 (that looked closer). And the SEC isn't allowed more than 2 teams in the BCS unless both are in the "natty", so the loser of the SEC Championship is going to the Capitol One Bowl, imo.
The "At-large" order goes Fiesta (vs. Big 12 Champ), Sugar (vs. SEC Champ, or in this case, their replacement, which is chosen before any at-large selections), and then the Orange (vs. ACC Champ). Since the Big East champ gets in automatically, but isn't a sexy matchup, I think they're destined for the Orange.
NC: ND vs. SEC Champ. (I think it's still Bama) I don't want to see this, and I'd probably root for ND, but I don't see it happening. 24-6 or so, SEC.
Grandaddy of 'Em All: Stanford vs. Nebraska. On pure entertainment value I'd like to see Michigan get beaten (and b/c I can't stomach watching Taylor Martinez throw), but I don't think Nebraska loses to Iowa Friday. Stanford has a tough D, but I don't know that I'd trust Hogan in the Rose Bowl in, what, his 4th game? Close one, Stanford 21-20.
Fiesta: (Big 12 Champ) KST vs. Oregon. As much as I'd like to see the Fiesta pass on us, I don't think they do. I think UO puts up a bunch of KSt, and has enough D healing up to "hold" KSt like you held USC...55-45, UO.
Sugar: (Florida or LSU) vs. Clemson or Oklahoma, and I think it's Clemson. SEC only gets two teams, and it'll be the champ and a one-loss Florida or LSU over Georgia (if they lose SEC CHamp) or Alabama--who could be chosen here, and that would be fun to pair against UO, but I don't think a 2-loss Bama is as appealing as one-loss FL or LSU in N'Awlins. And Clemson and Oklahoma are really the only teams left available and at-large, unless Kent State or Boise State somehow moves up over Louisville and Rutgers and....nevermind. I don't think Clemson has the firepower, and Florida or LSU rolls 38-17.
Orange: (ACC Champ) FSU v. (Big East Champ) Rutgers FSU in a closer-than-imagined game, 17-14. But if Rutgers can control the ball, this might switch.
Edit: New BCS standings out-- http://www.bcsfootball.org/ -- and 14's the cutoff for BCS selection
1 Notre Dame .9973
2 Alabama .9333
3 Georgia .8763
4 Florida .8434
5 Oregon .8318
6 Kansas State .7692
7 LSU .7308
8 Stanford .7077
9 Texas A&M .6526
10 Florida State .6363
11 Clemson .6056
12 South Carolina .5871
13 Oklahoma .5677
14 Nebraska .4790
15 Oregon State .4499
16 Texas .4235
17 UCLA .3826
18 Rutgers .2432
The "At-large" order goes Fiesta (vs. Big 12 Champ), Sugar (vs. SEC Champ, or in this case, their replacement, which is chosen before any at-large selections), and then the Orange (vs. ACC Champ). Since the Big East champ gets in automatically, but isn't a sexy matchup, I think they're destined for the Orange.
NC: ND vs. SEC Champ. (I think it's still Bama) I don't want to see this, and I'd probably root for ND, but I don't see it happening. 24-6 or so, SEC.
Grandaddy of 'Em All: Stanford vs. Nebraska. On pure entertainment value I'd like to see Michigan get beaten (and b/c I can't stomach watching Taylor Martinez throw), but I don't think Nebraska loses to Iowa Friday. Stanford has a tough D, but I don't know that I'd trust Hogan in the Rose Bowl in, what, his 4th game? Close one, Stanford 21-20.
Fiesta: (Big 12 Champ) KST vs. Oregon. As much as I'd like to see the Fiesta pass on us, I don't think they do. I think UO puts up a bunch of KSt, and has enough D healing up to "hold" KSt like you held USC...55-45, UO.
Sugar: (Florida or LSU) vs. Clemson or Oklahoma, and I think it's Clemson. SEC only gets two teams, and it'll be the champ and a one-loss Florida or LSU over Georgia (if they lose SEC CHamp) or Alabama--who could be chosen here, and that would be fun to pair against UO, but I don't think a 2-loss Bama is as appealing as one-loss FL or LSU in N'Awlins. And Clemson and Oklahoma are really the only teams left available and at-large, unless Kent State or Boise State somehow moves up over Louisville and Rutgers and....nevermind. I don't think Clemson has the firepower, and Florida or LSU rolls 38-17.
Orange: (ACC Champ) FSU v. (Big East Champ) Rutgers FSU in a closer-than-imagined game, 17-14. But if Rutgers can control the ball, this might switch.
Edit: New BCS standings out-- http://www.bcsfootball.org/ -- and 14's the cutoff for BCS selection
1 Notre Dame .9973
2 Alabama .9333
3 Georgia .8763
4 Florida .8434
5 Oregon .8318
6 Kansas State .7692
7 LSU .7308
8 Stanford .7077
9 Texas A&M .6526
10 Florida State .6363
11 Clemson .6056
12 South Carolina .5871
13 Oklahoma .5677
14 Nebraska .4790
15 Oregon State .4499
16 Texas .4235
17 UCLA .3826
18 Rutgers .2432
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