Ben from Blazersedge.com interviews Jeffrey Ma

[Nikolokolus]

Very interesting and enlightening read

http://www.blazersedge.com/2010/9/10/1680812/interview-blackjack-king-and#storyjump

ere was a guy who had been involved with the game at many levels, as a player and an executive. He'd played in the NBA for many years and had coached. He was now one of the hottest young general managers in the game. All told, he'd been in basketball for more than twenty years as a high-level player, coach, or executive. He clearly knew the game backwards and forward and had confidence in his opinions.

I didn't doubt Pritchard's knowledge, but this question seemed proof that he didn't really get what we were trying to do or what our value was in this process. He wanted the numbers to be comforting, and, although he appreciated their value, he didn't want them to conflict with what his gut and scouts were telling him.

That definitely jumped out at me.

"If people that use analytics to predict player performance in the NBA, using performance analytics, meaning what they did in college, and they tell you they had Oden ranked higher than Durant, they are full of crap," Ma said this morning. "There are very few statistical measures that would have rated Oden's system in college better than Durant's. Oden was injured his entire career, that one season at Ohio State. He had to shoot free throws left handed, was not efficient, didn't have a great statistical season.


"Our numbers absolutely said they should pick Durant. It wasn't even close."

Damn ...

 

[RoyToy]

Glad KP went with his gut because I'd take a healthy Oden over Durant, and so would have every other team in the NBA. Big men win championships.

Injuries are the reason it's a questionable pick right now, not ability.

 

[axs88]

Interesting indeed, but that second part is not really news. Oden did not have a great season at OSU statistically. Young centers rarely do, plus he was recovering from the broken wrist. Oden's team almost won the whole thing though, while KD put up gaudy numbers and went home early in the tourney.

Oden's production in the NBA doesn't make me question that decision, only the injuries do. Had he played three full seasons with a 18, 23 and 25 PER (projected 3rd year) with say 24, 28 and 34 minutes, we wouldn't be talking about how his college numbers projected at the time.

 

[HailBlazers]

Durant Lived in the Gym, No surprise the numbers favored him, He was one of the most NBA ready Draft Picks EVER. Cool Article Though.

 

[bemac]

Big men win championships.

Absolutely, just look at Perkins and....Who's the big man for the Lakers again?

 

[HailBlazers]

IF Perkins was Healthy the Celtics would have Won. Pau Gasol is the Lakers big man, and without him the Laker's would not have won the last two Championships. Fact

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

/wrists

Like I needed another reminder.

 

[axs88]

I'm all for advanced statistics, but seriously you're surprised the stats favored Durant?
Durant:
25.8/11.1 on .473/.404/.816 shooting, 36 minutes
Oden:
15.7/9.6 on .616/.628 shooting in 29 minutes

 

[SlyPokerDog]

Cho would have listened to Ma.

Asians love gambling!

 

[santeesioux]

Why did they make his character white in the movie based on him? Never understood that.

 

[SlyPokerDog]

Why did they make his character white in the movie based on him? Never understood that.

If Hollywood can make Charles Bronson Indian they can make Ma white.

 

[santeesioux]

If Hollywood can make Charles Bronson Indian they can make Ma white.

Lol that's a great movie though, it's nice to see the "indian" win.

 

[julius]

Absolutely, just look at Perkins and....Who's the big man for the Lakers again?

Pau Gasol on line 1.

 

[Masbee]

Durant Lived in the Gym, No surprise the numbers favored him, He was one of the most NBA ready Draft Picks EVER.

Interesting theory.

Too bad facts don't back that up.

 

[hasoos]

Translation: Oden Pick wasn't on me!

Now the question is, does anybody really still give shit?

 

[Minstrel]

Damn ...

A friend of mine also quoted me that. Why is that surprising? I don't recall anyone claiming Oden had a superior statistical season that year in college. With Oden, it was a mix of good numbers from a big man at his age (others like Duncan, Ewing, Robinson, Mourning, etc, had comparable or worse numbers as freshmen, as I recall) and his scouting projection that made him the consensus #1.

 

[DeanMoriarty]

Why did they make his character white in the movie based on him? Never understood that.

Because they've been doing it since the age of black face.


Anyways, I read another interview awhile back where Jeff Ma states the same thing. He would've liked to see us pick Durant because of statistical reasons but he was fine with Oden. Obviously, his feelings might have changed after Oden got injured again. But like everyone else, Ma, for all his statistics and data, still can't predict the future.

 

[espn_hall_of_famer]

As much as it pains me as a "math guy", but remember stats don't always tell the whole picture. Jeff makes it pretty clear here that the analysis provided is to be taken with a grain of salt, and they wouldn't expect a ranking to be the same as analysts that "know the game" because the point of statisticals is to take out the gut instincts, the biases, the off the court issues and simply provide numbers to help the decision makers marry up those numbers with their analysis on style of play and gut instincts and make a good decision. So Jeff was never saying KP should have picked Durant, just to use those numbers to make an educated decision.

It's a lot like doing statistical analysis that says Jacquizz Rodgers and LaMichael James are projecting off the charts statistically and would rank #1 on a math list compared to peers like Javhid Best or Toby Gerhart. Yet an NFL expert might have his own internal knowledge that guys like Quizz Rodgers and LaMichael James who are 4'11 and 120 lbs can never rush more than 15 plays a game in the NFL before they are carted off on a stretcher, thus a slam dunk NFL draft pick according to an MIT analyst is likely a special teams 7th round pick when it gets to the guys who really know the ins and outs of the sport.

 

[Nikolokolus]

A friend of mine also quoted me that. Why is that surprising? I don't recall anyone claiming Oden had a superior statistical season that year in college. With Oden, it was a mix of good numbers from a big man at his age (others like Duncan, Ewing, Robinson, Mourning, etc, had comparable or worse numbers as freshmen, as I recall) and his scouting projection that made him the consensus #1.

I just figured that maybe there was something buried in their advanced stats that was making him a better (or as good) of a choice.

 

[andalusian]

There was nothing burried in the advanced math - Greg's team made it all the way to the finals - and a large part of that was on Greg. Pretty simple math, not hidden at all. It was very clear, and it still is very clear that a healthy Oden is a force to be reckoned with. This takes nothing away from Durant who is a great player - and going to have a fantastic career.

 

[espn_hall_of_famer]

And remember, the small piece of the conversation that was regarding Oden and Durant was just stating a simple fact that due to Oden's injury for a quarter of the season and shooting left-handed for much of the college season, "anyone saying Oden's stats were better is lying" because the stats for Durant based on that tiny sample size of just college stats that included Oden's injury all would obviously point to Durant. Just like taking and stats comparing LaMichael James vs. Kenjon Barner through the first game of the season, anyone who tell you LaMichael has better stat is lying. Of course they're lying because James was suspended in game one and didn't even play a down yet. So Jeff is getting more into the statistical side of it that the numbers would pick Durant, but that it isn't that "cut and dry" because anyone with knowledge of the game knows Oden was injured and likely the better player long-term after basing it on the 10 years of basketball history prior to college.

 

[Minstrel]

I just figured that maybe there was something buried in their advanced stats that was making him a better (or as good) of a choice.

It wasn't advanced stats that made Oden a better choice. While I'm as big a proponent of advanced stats as anyone, I stay away from numbers, even deeper ones, for college performance. Too much of evaluating prospects has to be scouting for statistics to be very guiding. Production matters, but it's far from all that matters (whereas I think production is all that matters for established NBA players).

Oden has had the highest scouting pedigree since his soph year of high school, he's intelligent and hard-working from all accounts, had a great NBA body and exceptional athleticism and he was extremely productive for a freshman big man.

So while Durant had the more impressive statistical season, I never felt that made him the superior NBA prospect (this was true even before the lottery, so before I had any "stake" in it as a Blazers fan). From a talent perspective, I still feel that was right...injuries have a chance to derail it, though.

 

[Natebishop3]

Glad KP went with his gut because I'd take a healthy Oden over Durant, and so would have every other team in the NBA. Big men win championships.

Injuries are the reason it's a questionable pick right now, not ability.

Oden's health is our great white buffalo........ (whispers) great white buffalo.....

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

KD is the black Larry Bird. *IF* Greg can stay healthy I don't think his ceiling is anywhere close to what Durant is already doing.

 

[BoomChakaLaka]

Glad KP went with his gut because I'd take a healthy Oden over Durant, and so would have every other team in the NBA. Big men win championships.

Injuries are the reason it's a questionable pick right now, not ability.

Big men don't win championships! Teams win championships! Healthy teams!

 

[Rastapopoulos]

KD is the black Larry Bird.

Please, he's not that ugly! But it is true that his defense is atrocious.

Remind me what Ohio State has done before and after Oden played for them? Oh that's right, nothing much. And what have Texas done before and after Durant played for them? Recorded a better record both years, you say? Strange that no mathematical formula can capture those fairly significant facts.

It's interesting watching this iteration of the US team. Essentially, Krzhoweveryouspellit has turned them into the Thunder. Only Durant is to score and everybody else is a role player whose job is to play hustling defense (Iguodala is amazing at this). It seems to be working (Durant's scoring skills are incredible) but I'd be interested to see how Durant would be used on a team with Wade, Bryant and LeBron James.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Perhaps Durant is after the MVP that was Scola's. He's got 38 with minutes to go. The US offense really is basically either (a) steal followed by fast break layup or dunk (missed, if you're Westbrook) or (b) Durant going one-on-one. And Lithuania aren't even double-teaming him.

 

[axs88]

(a) steal followed by fast break layup or dunk (missed, if you're Westbrook)

That was Gordon.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Jeffrey Ma consulting with the Blazers, when we've already got Richard Cho, super-genius?

Want to see some advanced math? Ma + Cho = Awesome. That equation always balances.

 

[BGrantFan]

Jeffrey Ma consulting with the Blazers, when we've already got Richard Cho, super-genius?

Want to see some advanced math? Ma + Cho = Awesome. That equation always balances.

MaCho MaCho Man. I want to be, a MaCho Man!

[video=youtube;AO43p2Wqc08]